Andrey Rublev vs Jan-Lennard Struff Odds & Prediction – Monte Carlo Masters Quarterfinals
- Qualifier Jan-Lennard Struff reaches the Monte Carlo Masters quarterfinals
- He’ll face No. 5 seed Andrey Rublev, against whom he has a positive clay head-to-head
- Can Struff pull off yet another upset in Monte Carlo? We break down the matchup with our Rublev vs Struff prediction here
German veteran Jan-Lennard Struff has had great moments on clay before. But as he works his way back from a right foot injury, making the Monte Carlo Masters quarterfinals is a real surprise. Read on for Rublev vs Struff prediction in the quarterfinals, which is scheduled for Friday at 5 am EDT.
Andrey Rublev vs Jan-Lennard Struff Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| [5] Andrey Rublev (RUS) | -3.5 (-122) | -270 | O 22.5 (-104) |
| [Q] Jan-Lennard Struff (GER) | +3.5 (-108) | +220 | U 22.5 (-128) |
Rublev is a strong favorite; he stands at -270 odds to win, while the underdog Struff is at +220 in the Monte Carlo Masters odds. The spread is +3.5 for Struff and -3.5 for Rublev, and the match total is set at 22.5 games.
Struff vs Rublev odds as of April 13 are at FanDuel Sportsbook.
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Qualifier Struff Shocks Ruud
It’s not as though Casper Ruud has been having a great 2023 so far.
He admits that going on a big-bucks 2022 post-season tour of South America with legend Rafael Nadal was a lot of fun. But it pushed back his pre-season. And so on some level it feels like he’s still playing catchup.
Going back to his first trip in 2017, when he was ranked No. 127, Ruud was ousted in straight sets in the first round by … Struff, then ranked No. 58.
Fast-forward six years, and it happened again. The 6-1 score in the first set was a particular shock. Ruud came back from two breaks down in that second set, but couldn’t push it to three.
Rublev Beats Pal Khachanov
Russians Rublev and Khachanov have been friends for years, and also are frequent doubles partners – including this week in Monte Carlo.
But they have faced each other fairly rarely; on average, they’ve only met once every two years or so.
5️⃣0️⃣ clay court wins! 💥
Andrey Rublev beats Karen Khachanov and is back into the Monte-Carlo Masters QFs after having reached the last act in 2021
7-6, 6-2 in 1h30
Struff next for him: 3-3 the overall H2H, 2-1 in Struff's favour on clay pic.twitter.com/eq1qZcUDQe
— Mario Boccardi (@marioboc17) April 13, 2023
Thursday was that day in Monte Carlo. And even though Khachanov is having a much better season than Rublev on the whole, and their head-to-head was slightly in Khachanov’s favor, Rublev beat him in straight sets.
Rublev vs Struff Head-to-Head
| 25 (Oct. 20, 1997) | Age | 32 (April 25, 1990) |
| Moscow, Russia | Birthplace | Warstein, Germany |
| 6-2 | Height | 6-4 |
| 12 | Career ATP Singles Titles | 0 |
| No. 5 (Sept. 13, 2021) | Career-Best Ranking | No. 29 (Aug. 31, 2020) |
| No. 6 | Current Ranking | No. 100 |
| $15,959,245 | Career Prize Money | $7,872,864 |
| 15-8 | 2022 Won/Loss Record | 5-4 |
| 2 | ATP Main Draw Head-to-Head Wins | 2 |
The difference, in the end, was Rublev had by far the better serving day. He only faced one break point on his own serve. And he kept Khachanov to a 50 percent success rate on his own big first serve.
Struff Leads Head-to-Head on Clay
The last time Struff and Rublev met, it was an absolute nail-biter – and a monumental upset for Struff, as he defeated Rublev in five sets in the first round of the 2021 French Open.
But Struff, whose career-high ranking of No. 29 came right after tennis resumed in the summer of 2020 after a five-month stoppage during the pandemic, is a beast on clay.
You wouldn’t expect it, as he’s big, tall fellow who’s not necessarily known for his rally tolerance.
But he plays on clay as he does on other surfaces – big serve, big cuts at the ball, and a lot of net-rushing. His career winning percentage on clay is almost exactly what it is on hard courts.
Rublev vs Struff Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | French Open (R128) | Outdoor Clay | 6-3, 7-6 (6), 4-6, 3-6, 6-4 | Struff |
| 2021 | Rome Masters (R32) | Outdoor Clay | 6-7 (7), 6-1, 6-4 | Rublev |
| 2021 | ATP Cup (SF) | Outdoor Hard | 3-6, 6-1, 6-2 | Rublev |
| 2018 | St. Petersburg (R32) | Indoor Hard | 6-4, 7-6 (6) | Struff |
| 2017 | Irving Challenger (R32) | Oudoor Hard | 6-4, 7-6 (5) | Rublev |
| 2016 | French Open (Q2) | Outdoor Clay | 6-1, 7-6 (1) | Struff |
During that last meeting in Paris, Struff quickly went up two gets to none on Rublev, who fought back to take it to a fifth and deciding set.
But Struff prevailed, as he often has at Roland Garros. After the upset over Rublev, he defeated Carlos Alcaraz in straight sets in the third round. Alcaraz wasn’t Alcaraz quite yet. Still, it took skill.
Rublev vs Struff Prediction
As well as Struff is playing, and given the history between the two, expect another very tough challenge for the higher-ranked Rublev.
If the outright upset (+220) feels a bit risky in the Rublev vs Struff odds, having this go the three-set distance is a realistic possibility, with Struff in three sets (at +500) not out of the realm for a Rublev vs Struff prediction.
Rublev vs Struff Picks: Over 2.5 Sets (+130)
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Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
