Aryna Sabalenka vs Maria Sakkari Odds & Prediction – WTA Finals Round Robin
- Aryna Sabalenka is the -128 favorite to defeat Maria Sakkari in round-robin play at the WTA Finals on Monday, November 15
- The winner will advance to the semifinals of the event
- Sabalenka has won four of five previous matches against Sakkari
It’s win or go home time for Aryna Sabalenka and Maria Sakkari at the WTA Finals in Guadalajara, Mexico. As they meet in the final round-robin match of group stage play, both are 1-1.
Paula Badosa (2-0) is already through to the semifinals. Iga Swiatek (0-2) is already out. The winner of the Sabalenka-Sakkari match gains the other of the two coveted semifinal berths from this group.
Oddsmakers are of the opinion it will be Sabalenka who goes on, and Sakkari who goes home. World #2 Sabalenka is the -128 favorite to win the match.
Sabalenka vs Sakkari WTA Finals Odds
| Player | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aryna Sabalenka | -128 | -1.5 (-110) | O 21.5 (-160) |
| Maria Sakkari | +104 | +1.5 (-122) | U 21.5 (+100) |
Odds as of November 14 at FanDuel
Action is slated to get underway in the Sabalaenka-Sakkari showdown at 8:30 pm ET on Monday. The tennis channel is broadcasting the match.
Aryna Sabalenka Betting Trends
Sabalenka had already dug herself a hole before even taking to the court for her second group stage match against Swiatek. The Belarussian player dropped 10 consecutive games during a 6-2, 6-0 loss against #7 seed Badosa.
At first, it was appearing that Sabalenka was only going to sink deeper. She fell 2-6 in the first set to Poland’s Swiatek, the 2020 French Open champion. Swiatek then grabbed an early 2-1 advantage in the second set.
Lightning quick ⚡@SabalenkaA | #AKRONWTAFinals pic.twitter.com/ssR5zJLrFN
— wta (@WTA) November 14, 2021
However, at that point, Sabalenka donned her rally cap. She came back to take the match, winning the next two sets 6-2, 7-5. That being the case, it didn’t come easily. Sabalenka found herself trailing 4-5 in the third set, just two points away from losing the set.
This time, her rally was capped with her eighth ace of the match to pull even at 5-5. Sabalenka broke Swiatek and then won out on her own service to complete her two-hour, 17-minute victory.
Sabalenka finished with eight aces, compared to two for Swiatek. The Belarussian also won 83% of his first service points. She captured four of seven break points.
Maria Sakkari Betting Trends
Sakkari took the opposite route to arrive at this stage. She won her opening WTA Finals match, stopping Swiatek 6-2, 6-4.
Against Badosa, Sakkari put up much more of a fight than Sabalenka did. Though she also lost, Sakkari fell 6-7(4-7), 4-6 in a match that took two hours and two minutes to complete.
Locked In 🔒
🇬🇷 @mariasakkari defeats Swiatek in straight sets 6-2, 6-4. #AKRONWTAFinals pic.twitter.com/h9h8o2Enlt
— wta (@WTA) November 11, 2021
Sakkari afforded a dozen break points to Badosa, but the Spaniard only succeeded in converting three of them. The Greek player held a 25-23 edge in winners over Badosa. Unfortunately for Sakkari, she was done in by unforced errors. She committed 49 of them, compared to just 22 from Badosa.
Badosa also held a 10-1 edge in aces over her Greek opponent. On a positive note, Sakkari did battle back from 2-5 down to force a first-set tiebreaker.
Aryna Sabalenka-Maria Sakkari Prediction
Sabalenka holds a 4-1 advantage over Sakkari in previous head-to-head meetings. Sakkari won their first match 6-7(4), 6-4, 6-4 in the third round at Cincinnati in 2019.
Friends First 💜@mariasakkari | @iga_swiatek | #AKRONWTAFinals pic.twitter.com/0hQ2coMzY2
— wta (@WTA) November 11, 2021
Since that point, though, it’s been all Sabalenka. She was victorious in straight sets in the 2019 Zhuhai round robin, as well as in the third round of Doha in 2020 and again this year in the Abu Dhabi semifinals.
Sabalenka also won a three-set battle in the first round of Dubai in 2020. Sabalenka is just 10-13 in three-set matches this year.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Maria Sakkari Stats
| 2 | WTA Ranking | 6 |
| 10 | WTA Titles | 1 |
| 15 | WTA Final Appearances | 3 |
| 45-17 | W-L (2021) | 37-19 |
| 76.8% | Service Games Won | 67.9% |
| 38.7% | Return Games Won | 38.9% |
| 62.1% | Break Points Saved | 54.5% |
| 338 | Aces | 234 |
Against Swiatek, Sakkari won 26 of her 27 first-service points. On the other hand, the strong return game of Badosa limited her to just 51% of first-service points. Sabalenka was also dominant against Swiatek on first-service points. She won 84% of them over the final two sets of the match.
Sabalenka: “After the 1st set I was saying to myself, You have to get through this challenge, you have to get through this challenge, over and over again. You have to fight. You can't give up like you did in the first match.”#AKRONWTAFinals pic.twitter.com/iSEPVxhLYV
— WTA Insider (@WTA_insider) November 14, 2021
Overall, Sabalenka just doesn’t seem to be on top of her game at the moment. Even in her win against Swiatek, she committed 16 double faults. That’s one shy of the most in a WTA match this season.
Sakkari looks to be the more consistent player of the two at present. Take the upset price here.
Pick: Maria Sakkari (+104); Sakkari 2-1 (+330)
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
