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ATP China Open Semifinals Odds & Pick: Dominic Thiem vs Karen Khachanov

Hans Themistode

by Hans Themistode in Tennis

Updated Apr 9, 2020 · 5:01 PM PDT

Dominic Thiem practicing shirtless
Dominic Thiem practicing shirtless. Photo by Carine06 from UK (Wiki Commons).
  • Dominic Thiem hasn’t lost a single set at the China Open
  • Karen Khachanov has proven that he can dig deep throughout this tournament by winning multiple tiebreakers
  • Both men have a win over the other; who will win their latest encounter?

After a fun week at the China Open, things are now drawing to a close. On one side of the semi-final bracket, #1 seed Dominic Thiem will be taking on #4 Karen Khachanov.

Thiem currently holds the slight edge according the oddsmakers. This is bit of a 180 by the bookies as Khachanov opened as the China Open favorite.

Dominic Thiem vs Karen Khachanov Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Odds Total
Dominic Thiem -2.5 (-110) -170 O 23 (-118)
Karen Khachanov +2.5 (-110) +150 U 23 (-102)

Odds taken 10/04/2019.

How’d They Make It Here

It’s been an easy ride for Thiem up to this point. In the opening round, he rid himself of Richard Gasquet. It was a big win for Thiem as he had failed to defeat Gasquet in their two previous meetings prior to Thiem finally getting over the hump in straight sets.

He followed up that impressive win with a victory over Zhizhen Zhang in straights. Thiem found things a bit more difficult in his quarter-final matchup with Andy Murray. He managed to pull out the victory in straights but not before a close second-set tiebreaker.

As for Khachanov, he has mastered the art of winning by the skin of his teeth.

In his first two matchups against Pablo Cuevas and Jeremy Chardy, Khachanov won multiple tiebreakers. In his last contest, he lost the first set against Fabio Fognini but managed to rally back in the second and third sets to make his way to the semifinal.

H2H History Between Thiem & Khachanov

This semifinal is likely to be tight. Thiem and Khachanov are familiar with one another having faced each other twice relatively recently.

Khachanov won their first meeting back in 2018 at the Paris Masters (indoor hardcourts) where he managed to win in straight sets. Thiem would have his revenge earlier this year at Roland Garros (clay). He too won his contest in straight sets.

Dominic Thiem
Karen Khachanov
1 Wins Against Each Other 1
13-7 Hard Court Surface Win/Loss Record 14-12
36-15 Total Wins/Losses On The Year 25-21

Although they did split meetings with one another, it is important to note that Thiem picked up his victory on his favorite surface (clay, while Khachanov pulled in his victory on the hard courts, i.e. the same surface they’ll be playing on at the China Open.

In terms of success on the year, Khachanov is having a decent season; he is 25-21 overall. His hard court record, which is usually his specialty, stands at just 14-12. He may not be having the level of success that he wants, but he is more than capable of beating anyone on any given day.


Thiem, on the other hand, is having a monster year.

He has won 36 matches while only losing 15. His hardcourt record also stands at an impressive 13-7. Throughout his career, he has always been known as more of a clay-court player, but with his new-found ability on hardcourts, he is now dangerous no matter the surface.

Who To Take?

This is going to be a close matchup. Thiem comes in ranked at #5 in the world while Khachanov is right behind him at #9. They’ve split two meetings with one another and seem fairly evenly matched.

While it should be a tight contest, expect Thiem to get the job done. He has looked incredible all week long and hasn’t lost a set. Khachanov has been impressive, as well, but less consistent.

Pick: Thiem (-170)

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