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ATP Citi Open Finals Odds and Preview: Medvedev vs Kyrgios

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in Tennis

Updated Mar 25, 2020 · 3:23 PM PDT

Daniil Medvedev
Daniil Medvedev is the -140 chalk to defeat Nick Kyrgios in the final of the ATP Citi Open. Photo by Dacoucou (Wikimedia Commons)
  • World no. 10 Daniil Medvedev is the -140 chalk to win Sunday’s ATP Citi Open final
  • Medvedev has yet to drop a set in the tournament
  • He’ll face Australian Nick Kyrgios, who beat pre-tournament betting favorite Stefanos Tsitsipas in the semifinals

As the Citi Open is proving yet again, Daniil Medvedev is a hard man to beat on hard courts. Reaching the final of this tournament for the first time, the Russian player has blown through the competition without dropping a set.

Medvedev improved to 21-6 on hard courts this season, an impressive .778 winning percentage. He’ll face Australian Nick Kyrgios in Sunday’s final. Medvedev is the -140 chalk to win the match.

Nick Kyrgios vs Daniil Medvedev Citi Open Final Odds

Player Moneyline Spread Odds
Nick Kyrgios +110 +0.5 (-110) O 23.5 (-115)
Daniil Medvedev -140 -0.5 (-125) U 23.5 (-115)

*All odds taken 08/04/19

Match Time: Sunday, August 4th, 5 pm EST

Kyrgios beat top seed and pre-tournament betting favorite Stefanos Tsitsipas in Saturday’s semifinal. Medvedev opened the Citi Open odds at +910 to win the tournament. Kyrgios was a solid +1200 pick. Tsitsipas was the pre-tournament chalk at +580.

Medvedev Red Hot

Medvedev made short work of Germany’s Peter Gojowczyk in Saturday’s semis, whipping him 6-2, 6-2 in just 56 minutes. The Russian had all facets of his game in gear.

He fired seven aces, was five-for-five on break points and recorded 79% of his points on his first serve. Medvedev won 56% of his return points.

It’s been that way all week for the world no. 10. His toughest test was against sixth-seeded Marin Cilic in the quarterfinals on Friday. Medvedev won that match 6-4, 7-6(9-7). He’s yet to drop a set in the tournament.

The third seed, Medvedev hasn’t been required to face a higher-seeded player in the event. He also topped 16-seed Frances Tiafoe of the USA in the second round.

Medvedev has won four hard court tournament titles in the past two seasons, including a triumph at Sofia earlier this year. This is his fourth final appearance of the season and three of them have been on hard-court surfaces.

Erratic Kyrgios a Wildcard Wager

When he’s on his game, Kyrgios can play spectacular tennis. And when he’s off his game, he can be an absolute disgrace to the sport.

He’s a thrilling player to watch at times when all areas of his game are working. His service is deadly accurate. Kyrgios won 87% of his service points in his semifinal win over Tsitsipas. He can dictate the flow of a match with his powerful forehand and his agile footwork enables Kyrgios to cover all of the court.

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The other side of Kyrgios has also surfaced at times during the Citi Open. In a petulant display of unsportsmanlike conduct, he refused to shake the hand of the umpire following his second-round win over Gilles Simon.

Up until his semifinal showdown with no. 1 seed Tsitsipas, Kyrgios had yet to drop a set in Washington. His game came briefly unglued during the second set as Tsitspias won 6-3.


Angered by crowd noise, Kyrgios began swearing and tossed his racquet. The umpire eventually ended up penalizing him a point. During a break between games, Kyrgios threw a water bottle at the umpire’s chair.

Medvedev the Citi Open Play

There’s a lot of elements that point to a Kyrgios wager here. Kyrgios is 4-1 this sason in matches against the world’s top-10 players. That 80% success rate leads the ATP. World no. 1 Novak Djokovic (7-2, 78%) is second.

Nick Kyrgios
Daniil Medvedev
1 Head To Head 0
5 ATP Titles 4
52 World Ranking 10
16-10 2019 Overall Record 34-14
13-5 2019 Hard Court Record 21-6
1-0 2019 Finals Record 1-2
4-1 2019 Record vs World Top 10 3-4

Earlier this season, Kyrgios and Medvedev met on court for the first time in the Round of 64 on the clay courts at Rome. Kyrgios was a 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 winner.

This is hard court action and that surface is Medvedev’s turf, so to speak. His consistency and unorthodox style of play are tough to beat.

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To have a chance to win, Kyrgios will need to maintain the strong first-service performance he turned in against Tsitsipas in the semifinal.

Medvedev is at his best when he’s forcing his opponent into long rallies, counting on his superior ball striking abilities, defensive acumen and conditioning to win the day.

Pick: Daniil Medvedev (-140)

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