ATP Indian Wells Men’s Singles Quarterfinals Odds & Picks
- Rafael Nadal vs Nick Kyrgios headlines the Indian Wells Masters quarterfinals liineup
- Teenager Carlos Alcaraz continues to be a good bet to get to the end of the event, at age 18
- Scroll down for analysis and predictions for matches to be played on March 17 and 18
While it’s been clear that Rafael Nadal’s foot issue has him at less than 100 percent – and he has admitted as much – the 35-year-old keeps battling.
ATP Indian Wells Masters Quarterfinals Odds
| Matchups | Odds |
|---|---|
| [4] Rafael Nadal (ESP) vs. [WC] Nick Kyrgios (AUS) | -250/+200 |
| [19] Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) vs. [12] Cameron Norrie (GBR) | -275/+225 |
| Miomir Kecmanovic (SRB) vs. [20] Taylor Fritz (USA) | +140/-175 |
| [7] Andrey Rublev (RUS) vs. [33] Grigor Dimitrov (BUL) | -300/+240 |
Odds as of March 17 at BetMGM
Nadal problem-solved during a challenging match against one of the biggest servers on the tour, American Reilly Opelka, in Wednesday’s round-of-16 match.
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It helped that, unlike many other stadium courts, there is a ton of room behind the baseline at the Indian Wells, California event. And Nadal used every bit of it to catch up with the seven-foot American’s 145-mph deliveries.
Nadal vs Kyrgios Prediction
The Opelka match was good practice for Nadal (who remains the tournament favorite). Quarterfinal opponent Nick Kyrgios’s powerful serve is the biggest part of his arsenal, even on a slow court.
Kyrgios has been in refreshingly good spirits this week. And he didn’t even have to play his round-of-16 match against Jannik Sinner.
Sinner woke up ill on Wednesday morning and gave the Aussie star a walkover.
Nadal vs Kyrgios Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Australian Open (R16) | Outdoor Hard | 6-3, 3-6, 7-6 (6), 7-6 (4)-4 | Nadal |
| 2019 | Wimbledon (R64)) | Grass | 6-3, 3-6, 7-6 (5), 7-6 (3) | Nadal |
| 2019 | Acapulco (R16) | Outdoor Hard | 3-6, 7-6 (2), 7-6 (6) | Kyrgios |
| 2017 | Beijing (F) | Outdoor Hard | 6-2, 6-1 | Nadal |
| 2017 | Masters Cincinnati (QF) | Outdoor Hard | 6-2, 7-5 | Kyrgios |
| 2017 | Masters Madrid (R16) | Outdoor Clay | 6-3, 6-1 | Nadal |
| 2016 | Masters Rome (R16) | Outdoor Clay | 6-7 (3), 6-2, 6-4 | Nadal |
| 2014 | Wimbledon (R16) | Grass | 7-6 (5), 5-7, 7-6 (5), 6-3 | Kyrgios |
It’s been more than two years since their last meeting, with both being out of action for periods of time.
But Kyrgios has an edge in the fact that Nadal, with the foot an issue, has to play back-to-back days.
Kyrgios hasn’t played since Monday, when he was impressive in dismissing No. 8 seed Casper Ruud 6-4, 6-4.
It’s almost certain there will be tiebreaks in this one – odds are at +220 for there to be one in the first set.
It’s just too bad there are no tennis prop odds for how many underarm serves Kyrgios might throw in.
Nadal will be motivated to wrap it up in two if he can, given his physical situation. But it won’t be all up to him. These are the matches Kyrgios gets up for.
Pick: Over 23.5 games (+110)
Alcaraz vs Norrie Prediction
The thing about Brit Cameron Norrie is that he’s perenially underestimated. Even though he’s the defending Indian Wells champion.
Norrie was a late bloomer who played college tennis, in stark contrast to his opponent Thursday – a genuine phenom.
This quarterfinal match was, on paper, supposed to be Tsitsipas vs Medvedev. But although neither Norrie nor Alcaraz beat either of those top seeds, there they stand.
We’d give Norrie a better shot – except that Alcaraz beat him in three efficient sets when they met for the first time, in the first round of the US Open last summer.
If Norrie is a better player now, Alcaraz is exponentially better just six months on.
Pick: Alcaraz in Two sets (-115)
Rublev vs Dimitrov Prediction
Grigor Dimitrov is the defending semifinalist at the Indian Wells Masters. Rublev, the No. 7 seed, finally broke through with a good result in last October’s fall edition of the event.
A Los Angeles resident, Dimitrov has always felt at home with the chill vibe surrounding the event. And he will like having a little extra time to track down Rublev’s massive forehand on the slower court.
That’s 1️⃣2️⃣ in a row for Rublev.
Next: Dimitrov.🔥 https://t.co/m54zkJWoF3
— Tennis Majors (@Tennis_Majors) March 17, 2022
But with the bottom half of the draw leaving a spot in the finals absolutely there for the taking, Rublev’s intensity – and his tennis in straight-sets wins over No. 28 seed Frances Tiafoe and No. 11 Hubert Hurkacz, leave him a fairly clear favorite beyond the favorable odds.
And even if Rublev’s current winning streak isn’t as impressive as Rafael Nadal’s, it’s still quite a roll.
The two have played just once since 2018, but Rublev won that match in Beijing comfortably.
Pick: Under 21.5 games (+110)
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Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
