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Carlos Alcaraz vs Holger Rune Odds & Prediction – Rolex Paris Masters Quarterfinals

Stephanie Myles

by Stephanie Myles in Tennis

Nov 3, 2022 · 5:23 PM PDT

Carlos Alcaraz
Sep 11, 2022; Flushing, NY, USA; Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) reacts after winning the third set tiebreaker against Casper Ruud (NOR) (not pictured) in the men's singles final on day fourteen of the 2022 U.S. Open tennis tournament at USTA Billie Jean King Tennis Center. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
  • The two most talented ATP Tour teens meet Friday in the Paris Masters quarterfinals
  • Carlos Alcaraz and Holger Rune, both 19, clash for the first time at the ATP level
  • Alcaraz is the favorite, but underdog Rune will be popular in the Alcaraz vs Rune picks. Read on for more analysis

Born just a week apart in the spring of 2004, you expect Carlos Alcaraz of Spain and Holger Rune of Denmark to be a staple of weekends at big ATP Tour events for the next 15 years.

But there’s only one first time, and that will be Friday, November 4 in the quarterfinals of the Paris Masters.

Alcaraz vs Rune Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
[1] Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) -3.5 (+110) -235 O 22.5 (-113)
Holger Rune (DEN) +3.5 (-137) +180 U 22.5 (-112)

Odds as of Nov. 3 at Barstool Sportsbook. Use this Barstool Sportsbook promo code to bet on the Paris Masters

Alcaraz is a heavy -235 favorite over Rune in the moneyline odds above.



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Both are at their career highs: Alcaraz reached his – which happens to be world No. 1 – after winning the US Open in September.

Rune just jumped inside the top 20 last week, when he reached the final at the Swiss Indoors in Basel, Switzerland.


Which shows you that even phenoms have their own personal timeline for getting to the top of the charts.

Alcaraz Tired, Rusty but Still Game

If the tennis season came to a natural conclusion after the US Open, Carlos Alcaraz would have ended it a champion, with plenty of time to rest and reload for 2023.

That’s not tennis. And he was a pedestrian 4-3 post-US Open coming in Paris.

But he has gotten through his first two rounds in Paris against tricky opponents in good nick: 6-3, 6-4 against Japanese lefty Yoshihito Nishioka. And then 6-1, 6-3 against  Grigor Dimitrov. Alcaraz broke him five times and finished the job in 72 minutes.

Alcaraz vs Rune Head-to-Head

Carlos Alcaraz
Holger Rune
19 (May 5, 2003) Age 19 (April 29, 2003)
El Parmar, Murcia, Spain Birthplace Gentoffe, Denmark
6-0 Height 6-2
6 Career ATP Singles Titles 2
No. 1 (Sept. 12, 2022) Career-Best Ranking No. 18 (Oct. 31, 2022)
No. 1 Current Ranking No. 18
$9,133,865 Career Prize Money $1,934,018
57-12 2022 Won/Loss Record 36-24
1 Head-to-Head Wins 0

Rune On a Real Roll

As for Rune, he’s finishing the 2022 season with a flourish.

When he arrived in Sofia, Bulgaria in late September, Rune was 20-22. He won a small 250 event on clay in Munich in April, and reached the French Open quarterfinals.

From Paris to the US Open, he won just two matches and went out in the first round seven times.

Since his arrival in Sofia, he is 16-2 with a win over Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Stockholm final, In Paris, he has beaten Stan Wawrinka (in a third-set tiebreak  after saving three match points) No. 10 seed Hubert Hurkacz and No. 7 Andrey Rublev.

After his win over Wawrinka, the 37-year-old veteran felt compelled to give Rune a bit of … parental advice at the net.

Whiny about a flickering screen, Rune dropped some consistently foul language on chair umpire Mohamed Lahyani (who didn’t see it) and just burnished his reputation as a brat.

And then went on social media still complaining about it (without the profanity part, of course) and replied to almost anyone with an opinion.

In fairly sharp contrast, Alcaraz is basically a choirboy.

So it’s a great clash of opposites.

Alcaraz vs Rune Match History

Year Tournament Surface Score Winner
2021 Next Gen Finals (RR) Indoor Hard 4-3, 4-2, 4-0 Alcaraz

Both Teens With Big Weapons

Alcaraz and Rune are fast as lightning. Not just “fast because they’re 19” fast, but fast in the way that so many of the young players coming up seem to be.

At 6-2, Rune is taller than he seems; at 6 feet even, Alcaraz shorter than you’d think.

Both have big serves. But Rune’s is the bigger of the two. Alcaraz has more of a variety of weapons at this stage.

Alcaraz might be on fumes, but he’ll get up for this. Rune has played a ton of tennis in the last month, but he’ll also get up for this.

Alcaraz vs Rune Prediction

Somehow, it feels as though Alcaraz will need some extra drive to beat back a surging opponent.

It’s the kind of situation players like Federer and Nadal always relished, and were up for. But Alcaraz doesn’t necessarily have that extra November gear yet, because all this is all brand new to him.

He might win. But most are expecting a battle.

Best Bet: Over 2.5 Sets (+140)

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