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Ruud vs Rublev Odds & Prediction – Nitto ATP Finals (Semifinals)

Stephanie Myles

by Stephanie Myles in Tennis

Updated Nov 19, 2022 · 1:35 PM PST

Andrey Rublev vs Casper Ruud Nitto ATP Finals
Russia's Andrey Rublev celebrates after defeating Greece's Stefanos Tsitsipas during their ATP World Tour Finals singles tennis match, at the Pala Alpitour in Turin, Monday, Nov. 15, 2021. (AP Photo/Luca Bruno)
  • Casper Ruud and Andrey Rublev meet for the first time in 2022, in the semifinals at the ATP Finals
  • Rublev leads their head-to-head 4-1, and is the favorite in the match
  • Read on as we break down the matchup and find some betting value

Andrey Rublev came through a tougher pool than Casper Ruud did, to get to the semifinals of the Nitto ATP Finals.

And so Ruud will find a battle-tested Rublev, who is playing some of the best tennis of his career, in Saturday’s semifinal (3 p.m. ET).

Ruud vs Rublev Nitto ATP Finals Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
[3] Casper Ruud (NOR) +1.5 (-127) +106 O 23.5 (-130)
[6] Andrey Rublev (RUS) -1.5 (+100) -130 U 23.5 (-122)

Odds as of Nov. 19 at Barstool Sportsbook. Use this Barstool Sportsbook promo code to bet on the Nitto ATP Finals.


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Ruud got past Taylor Fritz, who also is playing top-notch tennis. And he also defeated Félix Auger-Aliassime, whom he matches up well against.

His only loss was a 7-5, 7-5 defeat to Rafael Nadal, who was 0-2 for the week and already eliminated, while Ruud was already guaranteed a spot in the semifinals.

Meanwhile, Rublev got past countryman Daniil Medvedev – 9-7 in the deciding tiebreak. And after a desultory loss to Novak Djokovic, managed a three-set victory over Stefanos Tsitsipas.

It was a grind, even if Tsitsipas pretty much denigrated Rublev’s abilities after that loss.

And yet, Rublev is now 9-4 against top-four players since 2019. If he has “limited tools”, as Tsitsipas spitefully claimed in losing to him for the sixth time in 12 career meetings, he must use them well.

Ruud Could Finish Year-End No. 2

There is a fair bit on the line for Ruud, a 23-year-old from Norway who reached the French Open and US Open finals this year.

Until then, he had mostly been seen as a player whose high ranking was built upon a succession of titles at smaller clay-court events – in tennis parlance, a “vulture”.

He proved that he could get all the way to the final day twice at the majors. And on two different surfaces, too.

He’s helped by the fact that a lot of hard courts are very slow these days. But that’s not the case in Turin, where the surface is fairly quick and where he has to come up with more of a dimension than just getting a lot of balls in play.

Casper Ruud vs Andrey Rublev Head-to-Head

Casper Ruud
Andrey Rublev
23 (Dec. 22, 1998) Age 25 (Oct. 20, 1997)
Oslo, Norway Birthplace Moscow, Russia
6-0 Height 6-2
9 Career ATP Singles Titles 12
No. 2 (Sept. 12, 2022) Career-Best Ranking No. 5 (Sept. 13, 2021)
No. 4 Current Ranking No. 7
$9,564,936 Career Prize Money $13,140.858
50-21 2022 Won/Loss Record 50-18
1 Head-to-Head Wins 4

Ruud has done that; his serve velocity, despite the fact that he’s relatively average in height at 6 feet, has been up there with the best. And he has increasingly added velocity to his groundstrokes as well this season.

But he doesn’t have the breakout, pure-winner firepower of Rublev.

Rublev Dominates the Head-to-Head

The two players haven’t crossed paths all year, which is more random than surprising.

The last time they met was at this same event a year ago, and Ruud barely scraped through in a third-set tiebreak.

It was the first time he had beaten the Russian in five tries.

And three of the four previous meetings had come on clay – which is universally acknowledged to be Ruud’s best surface.

Ruud vs Rublev Match History

Year Tournament Surface Score Winner
2021 ATP Finals (RR) Indoor Hard 2-6, 7-5, 7-6 (5) Ruud
2021 Monte Carlo Masters (SF) Outdoor Clay 6-3, 7-5 Rublev
2021 Australian Open (R16) Outdoor Hard 6-2, 7-6 (3) retd Rublev
2020 Hamburg (SF) Outdoor Clay 6-4, 6-2 Rublev
2019 Hamburg (R16) Outdoor Clay 3-6, 7-5, 6-3 Rublev

Unlike against his earlier opponents this week, Rublev is going to come into this one with deserved confidence.

He has done a good job changing directions with his backhand this week. And while Ruud’s backhand side is a wall, Rublev may be able to hang in with him long enough to get a chance at unleashing on his forehand.

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Casper Ruud vs Andrey Rublev Nitto ATP Finals Prediction

Better still, Rublev is winning his ongoing battle with his inner demons this week. Even if the stakes for this match are sky-high.

It’s a tough one to call for Rublev in straight sets. And certainly, if it goes to a decider, he may well falter.  But there will be service breaks.

Best Bet: Under 0.5 tiebreaks  (-117)


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