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Novak Djokovic vs Rafael Nadal US Open Final Favored at +275

Can Djokovic meet Nadal yet again for the US Open title? Photo from @Tennisworlden (Twitter)
  • Novak Djokovic-Rafael Nadal men’s single final listed as the +275 favorite at this year’s US Open
  • Those two have met previously in three US Open men’s singles finals
  • A Nadal-Roger Federer final is the second betting choice at +1000

Logically, it’s easy to see why a Novak Djokovic-Rafael Nadal meeting in the final of the US Open as the chalk in a finalists prop wager.

In the past decade, no players have won the US Open men’s singles title more often than that dynamic duo. Each has posted three victories.

2019 US Open Men’s Singles – Name The Finalists

Matchup Odds
Novak Djokovic/Rafael Nadal +275
Nadal/Roger Federer +1000
Djokovic/Stefanos Tsitsipas +1600
Djokovic/Dominic Thiem +1800
Nadal/Daniil Medvedev +1800
Djokovic/Alexander Zverev +1800
Djokovic/Marin Cilic +2500
Djokovic/Roberto Bautista Agut +3300
Djokovic/Karen Khachanov +3300
Djokovic/Felix Auger Aliassime +4000

*Odds taken on 08/23/19. 

Over the past decade no matchup has occurred in the final with more frequency. They’ve met for the men’s singles title at Flushing Meadows on a trio of occasions since 2009.

Djokovic Dominance

If it’s a Grand Slam event, then Djokovic must be in the final.

He’s won four of the past five Grand Slam events. The Serbian star defended his Wimbledon title last month. He also won the Australian Open and was champion last year at the US Open. The only blemish on his Grand Slam run was a semifinal loss to Dominic Thiem on the clay courts of Roland-Garros at the French Open.

If it isn’t going to be a Novak-Rafa final this year at Flushing Meadows, it appears sportsbooks are certain that it will be Djokovic against somebody. He comprises 50 percent of the equation in 11 of the top 13 final matchups on offer from the sportsbook.

Do The Math – It Adds Up To Djokovic vs Nadal

Looking solely at the US Open, since 2010 Djokovic has played in seven finals and Nadal four. Three times in that span, they went head to head. That puts Djokovic in 77 percent of finals, Nadal in 44 percent and both in 33 percent. Those are pretty fair odds.

Let’s expand the equation to take into account all Grand Slam events over the past decade. Djokovic has played in 23 of 40 finals, the best of any player. Nadal (18 of 40) is second. Roger Federer (10 of 40) is a distant third.

During that time period, Rafa and the Joker clashed in two Australian Open finals, two French Open finals and one Wimbledon final.

It’s Rafa And The Joker – Book It

The second betting choice in this prop pits Nadal vs Federer but that’s never happened in a US Open final. In fact, they’ve squared off once in a Grand Slam final since 2011.

You’ve got to go all the way down to the seventh name the finalists offering of Djokovic-Marin Cilic at +2500 to locate the next bet featuring two past US Open champions.

Djokovic is the world #1 and the defending champ. World #2 Nadal won the 2017 US Open.

This isn’t merely a match made it tennis heaven. It’s a match that will be made.

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