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Gaël Monfils vs Matteo Berrettini Odds & Prediction – Australian Open Quarterfinals

Stephanie Myles

by Stephanie Myles in Tennis

Jan 24, 2022 · 4:09 PM PST

Gael Monfils
Gael Monfils of France celebrates after defeating Miomir Kecmanovic of Serbia in their fourth round match at the Australian Open tennis championships in Melbourne, Australia, Sunday, Jan. 23, 2022.(AP Photo/Tertius Pickard)
  • No. 17 seed Gaël Monfils is a surprise Australian quarterfinalist, on a renaissance run at age 35
  • Matteo Berrettini, the No. 7 seed, survived a challenge from 18-year-old rising star Carlos Alcaraz
  • Berrettini is the betting favorite, but Monfils will be the crowd favorite. We break down the matchup

Nearly two years of the pandemic left him questioning his motivation and his future. But Gaël Monfils has begun the season in Australia a new man.

He has rediscovered the joy of tennis. Which in turn energizes the crowd, which directs its energy right back to him. Given his explosive talent, that makes almost anything possible.

Gaël Monfils vs Matteo Berrettini Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
[17] Gaël Monfils (FRA) +3.5 (-115) +150 O 38.5 (-115)
[7] Matteo Berrettini (ITA) -3.5 (-115) -187 U 38.5 (-115)

Odds as of Jan. 24 at Caesars Sportsbook

Monfils Takes Care of Rublev

The 35-year-old Frenchman has had some talented players in his path. But a combination of them not having great days and his standout play meant he hasn’t yet lost a set.

First he handled Argentina’s Federico Coria with the loss of just five games. Then he gave up just five more to Alexander Bublik, a player from Kazakhstan who was the highest-ranked player not to be among the 32 seeds.

Too often, though, Bublik shows up mostly to collect the paycheque. That’s the kind of day he had.

After beating No. 16 seed Cristian Garin in the third round, Monfils ran into Miomir Kecmanovic of Serbia.

Kecmanovic was the biggest beneficiary of the very late withdrawal of Novak Djokovic. He was due to play his far more celebrated countryman in the first round. But he ended up facing a lucky loser and rode that all the way to the round of 16.

He gave Monfils trouble. But after a tight first set, Monfils rolled to a 7-6 (4), 6-1, 6-3 victory.

It’s been hot, and Monfils has had a few health scares – as usual. One of which involved rolling his ankle and going down in a heap against Garin. But he hasn’t wasted any energy.

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Gaël Monfils vs Matteo Berrettini Head-to-Head

Gaël Monfils
VS
Matteo Berrettini
35 (Sept. 1, 1986) Age 25 (April 12, 1996)
Paris, France Birthplace Rome, Italy
6-4 Height 6-5
11 Career ATP Singles Titles 5
0 Career Grand Slam Singles Titles 0
No. 6 (Nov. 7, 2016) Career High Ranking No. 7 (Sept. 13, 2021)
No. 20 Current Ranking No. 7
$20,283,358 Career Prize Money $8,586,516
8-1 2021 Won/Loss record 5-2
0 Career Head to Head 2

Berrettini Survives Alcaraz en Route to the Quarters

The 25-year-old Italian Berrettini began the season playing ATP Cup. There, he defeated France’s Ugo Humbert, but lost to Australia’s Alex de Minaur and Russia’s Daniil Medvedev.

In Melbourne, Berrettini dropped a set to both young Americans he faced, Brandon Nakashima and Stefan Kozlov.

Recovered from instestinal issues that weakened him early in the tournament, he struggled the most against the youngest of them all, rising 18-year-old Carlos Alcaraz.

Berrettini won the first two sets, then watched as Alcaraz fought back to take it the distance. And then he needed to win the fifth-set tiebreak – a 10-point decider in Australia – 10-6 to advance.

It was a narrow escape. And, at four hours, 10 minutes, an exhausting effort.

But he rallied well against No. 19 seed Pablo Carreño Busta in the round of 16. It was expected to be a long battle, but the Italian saved some energy to win in three tight sets.

Gaël Monfils vs Matteo Berrettini Match History

Year Tournament Surface Score Winner
2021 ATP Cup (RR) Outdoor Hard 6-4, 6-2 Berrettini
2019 US Open (QF) Outdoor Hard 3-6, 6-3, 6-2, 3-6, 7-6 (5) Berrettini

Berrettini Unbeaten vs Monfils

Both of their previous meetings went Berrettini’s way.

But the match at the ATP Cup a year ago came right in the middle of Monfils’s struggles. The next week, he went out to unheralded Emil Ruusuvuori in the first round of the Australian Open.

Perhaps a more representative effort was their classic in the quarterfinals of the 2019 US Open. It was a huge match for both, and Monfils nearly pulled off the win. But he was heartbroken at the end.

That’s more in line with what we expect on Tuesday where, again, Monfils will be the crowd favorite but the betting underdog in the Australian Open odds.

We expect him to come out on fire and take the first set (+122), and pound Berrettini’s weaker backhand side as the two engage in long rallies on a steamy hot day. But if someone is going to wilt, it’s likely to be the Frenchman, who gives up a decade to his younger, more highly-ranked rival.

Best Bet: Berrettini wins, but both players win a set (+155)

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CODE: SBDIMECZR
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