- Jannik Sinner vs Andrey Rublev is the first scheduled quarterfinal in Barcelona Friday, at 6:30 am EDT
- Despite being ranked a dozen spots lower than Rublev, Sinner is the slight favorite in this encounter
- The 19-year-old Italian is a lot fresher. We break down why he’s ready to pull off the upset
Andrey Rublev is only 23 years old. But with all the tennis he has in his legs over the last 10 days, he’s going to feel like an old man in this Jannik Sinner vs Andrey Rublev quarterfinal match on Friday.
Perhaps that’s why the 19-year-old Italian is a slight favorite in their Barcelona Open quarterfinal.
Jannik Sinner vs Andrey Rublev Odds
|Player||Spread||Moneyline||Total at DraftKings|
| Jannik Sinner (ITA)||-1.5 (-110)||-137||O 22.5 (-106)|
|[3/WC] Andrey Rublev (RUS)||+1.5 (-115)||+110||U 22.5 (-120)|
Odds as of April 22
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The two were among the top-five favorites to win outright before the Barcelona Open began.
Rublev was right behind heavy favorite Rafael Nadal, after his effort to reach the Monte-Carlo final last week.
Sinner Rolls, Rublev Scrapes Through
Any match against tough customer Roberto Bautista Agut is going to be a battle.
But Sinner beat the Spaniard in two sets – the first one tight, the second one not so much – Thursday in the third round in Barcelona.
Pure hitting with a classy finish 👌
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) April 22, 2021
Meanwhile, Rublev had his moments against lesser-ranked Spaniard Albert Ramos-Viñolas.
He won in three sets, but expended plenty of energy.
Rublev has shown a little fatigue so far this week, even though he was a wild card into the tournament and is there by choice.
Sinner, with more rest before Barcelona after being eliminated in the second round of Monte-Carlo by Novak Djokovic, has rolled.
Both Sinner and Rublev at Career Highs
After his his first career appearance in Monte-Carlo last week, Sinner moved into the top 20 for the first time.
He began the 2021 season at No. 36. So he has cut his ranking nearly in half in less than three months.
Rublev bumped Roger Federer down to the No. 8 spot and also was at a career-high ranking Monday.
Jannik Sinner vs Andrey Rublev Previous Match
|2020||Vienna (R16)||2-1 (retired)||Rublev|
Little Experience Against the “Top Young Guns”
Sinner has very little experience against the top players who are 23 years of age and younger.
But the Italian does have a win against Stefanos Tsitsipas, which came in the second round in Rome last fall.
He also defeated Alexander Zverev in four sets at the French Open, and then lost to him indoors in Cologne a few weeks later.
Sinner took Canadian lefty Denis Shapovalov to five sets in the first round of the Australian Open before bowing out.
But that’s it.
His one previous encounter with Rublev, last fall in Vienna, ended in retirement after just eight minutes and three games because of a bad blister on Sinner’s right foot.
— Yasuyo Kawakami (@yasuyo730) October 29, 2020
The rematch is highly anticipated by ginger fans everywhere.
Three Top-10 Wins, Two on Clay
Sinner is 3-7 against top-10 players overall in his short career.
But two of those came in those clay-court matches last fall against Tsisipas and Zverev. The other was over David Goffin indoors in Rotterdam.
Could Rublev be next?
Jannik Sinner vs Andrey Rublev Head-to-Head
|19 (Aug. 16, 2001)||Age||23 (Oct. 20, 1997)|
|San Candido, Italy||Birthplace||Moscow, Russia|
|2||Career ATP Singles Titles||8|
|No. 19 (April 19, 2021)||Career High Ranking||No. 7 (April 19, 2021)|
|No. 19||Current Ranking||No. 7|
|$1,761,240||Career Prize Money||$8,042,395|
|17-6||2021 Won/Loss record||26-5|
Will Rublev Hit the Wall?
There is much tennis still to be played before the ATP Tour arrives in Paris for the French Open at the end of May.
Back-to-back Masters 1000 tournaments in Madrid and Rome are up next.
Rublev hasn’t paced himself with two tournaments already. And he will find himself needing to expend a lot of energy to defeat the defensively-skilled Sinner – never mind the prospect of two more matches this week.
That said, the Russian is 25-1 in his last six ATP 500 tournament matches including Barcelona, with four titles in his last five.
Rublev’s massive power is something that can be blunted by the silky-smooth Italian teenager, especially on clay. So his challenge will be to find other ways to win points.
That could get him frustrated. And he’s already tired.
It smells like an upset.
Best Bet: Sinner in two sets (+180)
While you’re betting the Barcelona Open, be sure to read our guide to Derby betting ahead of next week’s big race!
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