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Jannik Sinner vs Hubert Hurkacz Odds & Prediction – ATP Miami Open Final

Stephanie Myles

by Stephanie Myles in Tennis

Updated Apr 3, 2021 · 10:40 AM PDT

Jannik Sinner vs Hubert Hurkacz
Jannik Sinner, of Italy, returns to Roberto Bautista Agut, of Spain, during the semifinals of the Miami Open tennis tournament, Friday, April 2, 2021, in Miami Gardens, Fla. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)
  • The Miami Open men’s singles final will feature the No. 21 seed versus the No. 26 seed
  • Underdogs Jannik Sinner and Hubert Hurkacz, good friends off the court, have never played each other
  • The 19-year-old Sinner is the favorite. Can Hurkacz, 24, take him down? We break it down below

With 31 of the top 100 men opting to miss the Miami Open – including the “Big 3”, it was a golden opportunity for … someone.

The pressure of that golden opportunity appeared to wear on the top contenders.

And so Jannik Sinner and Hubert Hurkacz, lesser-ranked players with implacably chill on-court demeanors, stepped up and seized the day.

Jannik Sinner vs Hubert Hurkacz Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total at DraftKings
[21] Jannik Sinner (ITA) -3.5 (+135) -175 O 22.5 (-117)
[26] Hubert Hurkacz (POL) +3.5 (-167) +143 U 22.5 (-106)

Odds as of April 3

Hurkacz the Longest of Long Shots

Before the Miami Open began, the rising star Sinner was at least within the realm of possibility as a long shot. He was tied for fifth with Canadians Milos Raonic and Denis Shapovalov at +1400 – the three of them behind the “Big 4” for this tournament (Daniil Medvedev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Alexander Zverev and Andrey Rublev), all in triple digits.


Hurkacz was nowhere to be found.

There were few former champions or finalists in the field. Once Zverev went out in the first round, only John Isner and Kei Nishikori remained.

Once Isner was beaten in the round of 16, and eight were still alive, the tournament was guaranteed to have two first-time finalists however it shook out.

Different Paths, Same Destination

Hurkacz is five years older than Sinner. But both are leaping into the top 20 the same week.

Regardless of the outcome Sunday it appears Sinner will hit a new high at No. 14. Hurkacz will do the same, at No. 17.

But it has taken him a lot longer. Here’s a comparison of their progress up the ATP Tour rankings.

Hurkacz was 17 1/2 when he first appeared in the ATP rankings at No. 1,413. Sinner was a year younger when he earned his first ranking, but he’s getting to the top 20 five years sooner.

When Hurkacz was Sinner’s age, he was ranked No. 396 in the world.

Both Had Two Testing Matches

Sinner was almost out in the third round against No. 14 seed Karen Khachanov, a rival against whom he’s always had strength-sapping encounters. He won that. And then in the semifinals, he came back from a set down again to upset No. 7 seed Roberto Bautista Agut 5-7, 6-4, 6-4

Hurkacz squeaked past the big-serving Raonic in a third-set tiebreak in the round of 16. And then, he came back from a set down to defeat No. 2 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas 2-6, 6-3, 6-4 in the semifinals, as the Greek star clearly battled the “Win Miami” nerves.

YouTube video

Both have been tested, but not worn down.

The heat shouldn’t be a factor; the wind might be a slight issue.

Jannik Sinner vs Hubert Hurkacz Head-to-Head

Jannik Sinner
Hubert Hurkacz
19 (Aug. 16, 2001) Age 24 (Feb. 11, 1997)
San Candido, Italy Birthplace Wroclaw, Poland
6-2 Height 6-5
2 Career ATP Singles Titles 2
No. 31 (March 22, 2021) Career High Ranking No. 28 (Feb. 3, 2020)
No. 31 Current Ranking  No. 37
$1,570,250 Career Prize Money $2,801,624
14-4 2021 Won/Loss record 13-5

Sinner and Hurkacz Cool Customers

Both Sinner and Hurkacz are preternaturally calm on the court. Neither gets too down when things are going poorly nor too celebratory when good things are happening.

Both have big serves; overall, the taller Hurkacz possesses the bigger one. Sinner moves a little better.

Both rely on big power off both wings. Sinner has a more elastic arm and flexible wrist that make his power effortless and thus more unexpected. Both are works in progress when it comes to moving forward. But neither has a major weakness to exploit.

YouTube video

Good friends, they have practiced together often. And they have teamed up for doubles twice already in 2021. So no feeling-out process needed.

But this will be their first career meeting in singles.

Feels Like a Week of Destiny for Sinner

Despite being the younger of the two, you get the sense this is a tournament of destiny for the Italian teenager whose upward curve is so much steeper and who, by every expert’s analysis, is going to be a big-time champion very soon.

While it could be a long match full of extended rallies (+280 for it to last 30 games or more is an appealing prop), expect the younger man to prevail.

Best Bet: Sinner in three sets (+300) 

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