Karen Khachanov vs Pablo Carreño Busta Odds & Prediction – Olympic Men’s Tennis Semifinals
- On paper, the Olympic men’s semifinal in the bottom half was to be No. 2 Medvedev vs No. 3 Tsitsipas
- Olympic tennis brings surprises, though. Instead, it’s No. 6 Carreño Busta vs No. 12 Khachanov
- Carreño Busta is the slight favorite for the match scheduled for Friday, July 30 at 2 am EDT
Karen Khachanov’s 2021 had been nothing much to write home about.
The former No. 8 didn’t win back-to-back matches between Rotterdam in early March and Wimbledon in early July.
But he made the quarterfinals there and carried that momentum into the Olympics.
Karen Khachanov vs Pablo Carreno Busta Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| [12] Karen Khachanov (RUS) | +1.5 (-105) | +130 | O 23.5 (-105) |
| [6] Pablo Carreño Busta (ESP) | -1.5 (-125) | -155 | U 23.5 (-120) |
Odds as of July 29 at DraftKings
Khachanov the Underdog, but Has the Edge on Hard Courts
Khachanov and Pablo Carreño Busta are both at their best on the hard courts.
They are well-matched, despite the current gap in their rankings. This is why the odds are pretty tight for Carreño Busta to eke out a win.
But most expect a long one, even if the two more recent examples on a hard court in warm conditions were both won by Khachanov in straight sets.
The Olympic courts are a bit on the slow side. But if Khachanov can serve well enough to take care of his own serve, he has generated enough break-opportunities through his first four matches – 37 to Carreño Busta’s 25 – to give himself chances on the return.
Karen Khachanov vs Pablo Carreño Busta Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Monte Carlo (R32) | Outdoor clay | 6-2, 6-3 | Carreño Busta |
| 2020 | Cincinnati Masters (R32) | Outdoor Hard | 7-6 (8), 6-1 | Khachanov |
| 2018 | Masters Canada (R32) | Outdoor Hard | 6-4, 7-6 (3) | Khachanov |
| 2017 | Masters Canada (R64) | Indoor Hard | 3-6, 6-3, 6-2 | Carreño Busta |
| 2017 | Monte Carlo (R32) | Outdoor clay | 6-4, 6-4 | Carreño Busta |
Carreño Busta Topples No. 2 Medvedev
There was a fair bit of drama in the quarterfinal match between The Russia Olympic Committee’s Daniil Medvedev and the combustible Fabio Fognini.
Medvedev won that one, even with both players suffering tremendously in the heat. And by Thursday, the start time for the tennis had been moved forward four hours. Still, it was warm and humid. And Medvedev was clearly feeling the effects of the previous day as he went down to Carreño Busta in straight sets.
Khachanov had an even tougher task against No. 14 seed Ugo Humbert, who had upset No. 3 Stefanos Tsitsipas in the third round.
Humbert didn’t have much left, either. And it took the Russian two hours, 32 minutes to get through him – in large part because he was just 1-for-11 on break points.
Can he Khach one? 🥇🥈🥉@karenkhachanov moved within one win of an #Olympics medal after besting Ugo Humbert in three sets on Thursday#Tokyo2020 | #Tennis
— ITF (@ITFTennis) July 29, 2021
The turnaround is fairly quick. But they’re playing for a shot at Olympic gold.
Karen Khachanov vs Pablo Carreño Busta Tournament Stats
| Stats (Four Matches) | Karen Khachanov | Pablo Carreño Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Aces/Double faults | 39 / 10 | 23 / 5 |
| Total time on Court | 7h43 | 7h42 |
| Break points Converted | 15 / 37 (40.5%) | 10 / 25 (40%) |
| Break Points Saved | 14 / 19 (73.7%) | 8 / 13 (61.5%) |
Khachanov Solid on Break-Point Saves
Saving nearly 75 percent of the break points against you is an impressive number. But Khachanov will have to do a better job converting on his own opportunities to take the match.
The winner guarantees himself gold or silver; the loser will have to win another match to leave Tokyo with a bronze medal.
Upset complete 🚨@pablocarreno91 knocks off No.2 seed Daniil Medvedev 6-2 7-6(5) and will face Karen Khachanov for a place in the #Tokyo2020 men's singles final!#Tennis | #Olympics
— ITF (@ITFTennis) July 29, 2021
This will be the earlier of the two men’s semifinals. At 3 pm (Tokyo time) on Friday, scattered thunderstorms are expected, and the humidity will be high.
Not only does that make it more difficult for the bigger, heavier man – Khachanov – it also means they might well close the roof on the stadium.
That will make it even more oppressive. But it also might help Khachanov on serve.
Karen Khachanov vs Pablo Carreño Busta Head-to-Head
| 25 (May 21, 1996) | Age | 30 (July 12, 1991) |
| Moscow, Russia | Birthplace | Gijon, Spain |
| 6-6 | Height | 6-2 |
| 4 | Career ATP Singles Titles | 6 |
| No. 8 (July 15, 2019) | Career High Ranking | No. 10 (Sept. 11, 2017) |
| No. 25 | Current Ranking | No. 11 |
| $9,847,132 | Career Prize Money | $11,810,701 |
| 24-15 | 2021 Won/Loss record | 27-9 |
| 2 | Career Head to Head | 3 |
Tough One to Call
There are many variables at play. So this match, with so much riding on it, is tough to call.
But it is likely to be a long one.
Khachanov has broken serve 15 times in four matches; he’s at -110 to break serve three times or more.
The Russian is at +340 to win in three sets; Carreño Busta is at +260.
Over 23.5 games sits at -105.
Khachanov to win the first set – and Carreño Busta to wear him down and win in three – is at +500.
Best Bet: Carreño Busta in three sets (+260)
Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
