Rafael Nadal vs Taylor Fritz Odds & Prediction – Nitto ATP Finals
- The ATP Tour Finals begin Sunday, Nov. 13 in Turin, Italy
- The second match on Day 1 features No. 1 seed Rafael Nadal vs. No. 8 Taylor Fritz
- Nadal is a slight favorite; read on as we break down the matchup and make a prediction
Through injuries, and after becoming a father for the first time, Rafael Nadal has not played much tennis in the last few months. The Spaniard has never won the ATP Tour’s year-end championship. In fact, he’s only made the final twice, and the last time was nine years ago. Read on for an analysis of Rafael Nadal vs Taylor Fritz.
Rafael Nadal vs Taylor Fritz Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| [1] Rafael Nadal (ESP) | -1.5 (-108) | -139 | O 23.5 (+102) |
| [8] Taylor Fritz (USA) | +1.5 (-115) | +114 | U 23.5 (-129) |
Odds as of Nov. 13 at Barstool Sportsbook. Use this Barstool Sportsbook promo code to bet on the Nitto ATP Finals
That’s a big reason why the man who has more Grand Slam singles title than anyone in history isn’t even in the top half, on the list of favorites to win the tournament.
In fact, three of the top four are in the other round-robin group, the Red Group.
Novak Djokovic leads the pack at +135, followed by Daniil Medvedev at +375.
Nadal vs the Green Group
| Nadal Opponent | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|
| [3] Casper Ruud (NOR) | 1-0 |
| [5] Félix Auger-Aliassime (CAN) | 2-0 |
| [8] Taylor Fritz (USA) (Nov. 13, 8 a.m. ET) | 2-1 |
Félix Auger-Aliassime, who plays Casper Ruud Monday, is the top cat in the Green Group at +500, with Nadal down at +800.
Rusty Nadal an Unknown Quantity
The 36-year-old Mallorcan had a fast and furious start to the 2022 season, winning his first 21 matches before he ultimately fell to Taylor Fritz in the Indian Wells final.
Yes, the same Fritz he faces Monday in Turin.
Rafael Nadal vs Taylor Fritz Head-to-Head
| 36 (June 3, 1986) | Age | 25 (Oct. 28, 1997) |
| Manacor, Mallorca | Birthplace | Rancho Santa Fe, Calif. |
| 6-1 | Height | 6-5 |
| 92 | Career ATP Singles Titles | 4 |
| No. 1 (Aug. 18, 2008) | Career-Best Ranking | No. 8 (Oct. 10, 2022) |
| No. 2 | Current Ranking | No. 9 |
| $131,700,371 | Career Prize Money | $8,975,541 |
| 38-6 | 2022 Won/Loss Record | 43-19 |
| 2 | Head-to-Head Wins | 1 |
But he’s just 3-3 since he withdrew ahead of his Wimbledon semifinal against Nick Kyrgios four months ago.
Add to that one doubles match at the Laver Cup, where he flew in and out to give longtime rival Roger Federer a proper sendoff.
It’s not much. And there have been a ton of injuries including a rib strain, the chronic foot issue and basic lack of match play.
One and Done in Nadal prep
Nadal returned to action two weeks ago at the Paris Masters. And he should have beaten Tommy Paul in straight sets.
Instead, he let the second set slip away and went away quickly in the third.
Meanwhile, Fritz recovered from a shocker of a first-round exit against qualifier Brandon Holt in New York. He played Davis Cup and Laver Cup.
And he won the fourth title of his career in Tokyo early last month, defeating Denis Shapovalov in the semifinals and Frances Tiafoe in the final.
He’s had plenty of tennis, but not too much in recent weeks.
Nadal vs Fritz Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Wimbledon (QF) | Grass | 3-6, 7-5, 3-6, 7-5, 7-6 (4) | Nadal |
| 2022 | Indian Wells (F) | Outdoor Hard | 6-3, 7-6 (5) | Fritz |
| 2020 | Acapulco (F) | Outdoor Hard | 6-3, 6-2 | Nadal |
Three Meetings, Plenty of Drama
Nadal and Fritz have met three times. And all of them were big moments – two of them in finals.
Their first meeting was all Rafa. But at Indian Wells last March, Fritz won the biggest tournament of his career, in his backyard, against a Nadal who was struggling with a rib injury.
Fritz, having plowed through a tough field, was just about as far gone. But he pulled through.
https://twitter.com/Olly_Tennis_/status/1588545733971496960
And at Wimbledon this past summer, Fritz gave it everything he had, only to lose in the fifth-set match tiebreak. A crusher – especially as Nadal withdrew before his next match, the semifinal against Kyrgios.
Rafael Nadal vs Taylor Fritz Prediction
It’s unlikely Nadal will be 100 per cent. Again.
And you know that the American, if he has any sense of evening the score, will be as up for this one as he’s ever been for a match. But that Wimbledon experience will be tough to get out of his head.
It’s imperative for Nadal to win in straight sets – which he couldn’t do against Paul two weeks ago.
We think he’ll do it.
Best Bet: Nadal in Two Sets (+170)
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Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
