Rakuten Japan Open Tennis Championships Odds & First Round Picks
By Stephanie Myles in Tennis
Updated: September 19, 2024 at 10:24 am EDTPublished:
- The 2022 Japan Open title is very much up for grabs, with only one top-10 player in the draw
- Nick Kyrgios, who hasn’t played since the US Open, is the pre-tournament Japan Open betting favorite
- Read on for the Japan Open first-round odds and picks
Most of the top-10 players in action this week went to Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan, which leaves Casper Ruud as the only top-10 player in Tokyo.
But the Norwegian star and world #2 is not the betting favorite to win the Japan Open. Nick Kyrgios, who’s in the other half of the draw, gets that honor at +400.
Japan Open First-Round Odds
| Matchup | Odds |
|---|---|
| Pedro Martinez (ESP) vs. Alexei Popyrin (AUS) | +100 / -124 |
| Brandon Nakashima (USA) vs. [WC} Shintaro Mochizuki (JPN) | -715 / +500 |
| [4] Frances Tiafoe (USA) vs. [WC] Yasutaka Uchiyama (JPN) | -835 / +575 |
| Radu Albot (MDA) vs. [8] Daniel Evans (GBR) | +240 / -315 |
| James Duckworth (AUS) vs. [3] Taylor Fritz (USA) | +575 / -835 |
| Miomir Kecmanovic (SRB) vs. Yoshihito Nishioka (JPN) | +121 / -103 |
| Thanasi Kokkinakis (AUS) vs. [9] Borna Coric (CRO) | +190 / -245 |
| [5] Nick Kyrgios (AUS) vs. Tseng Chun-Hsin (TPE) | -1000 / +650 |
| Mackenzie McDonald (USA) vs. [WC] Kaichi Uchida (JPN) | -560 / +410 |
| [LL] Hiroki Moriya (JPN) vs. [Q] Yuta Shimizu (JPN) | +116 / -143 |
| [Q] Rio Noguchi (JPN) vs. [Q] Ramkumar Ramanathan (IND) | -155 / +123 |
| [1] Casper Ruud (NOR) vs. Jaume Munar (ESP) | -455 /+340 |
| [7] Denis Shapovalov (CAN) vs. Steve Johnson (USA) | -400 / +300 |
| [Q] Sho Shimabukuro (JPN) vs. Kamil Majchrzak (POL) | +220 / -278 |
| Soonwoo Kwon (KOR) vs. Alex de Minaur (AUS) | +310 / -420 |
| Taro Daniel (JPN) vs. Bernabe Zapata Miralles (ESP) | TBA |
Odds as of Oct. 2. Get the ESPN BET promo code.
After Kyrgios, Taylor Fritz is the second-favorite in the Japan Open betting odds at +450, followed by Ruud and Francis Tiafoe, both at +600. From there, it’s a sizable drop to Alex de Minaur at +1100.
Weaker Field at Japan Open Means Opportunity
Notably, projected No. 2 seed Cameron Norrie tested positive for COVID in Seoul last week and can’t travel to the Japan Open because of quarantine requirements.
Before that, the lowest seed in Tokyo was ranked No. 25, with the last straight into the draw at No. 90. At the Astana Open, the lowest seed was ranked No. 13, with the last in at No. 49.
Reporting to you LIVE from South Korea: pic.twitter.com/TTdpSo9vIb
— Cameron Norrie (@cam_norrie) October 2, 2022
So a big difference. But also a great opportunity for the Japan Open field as the number of ranking points is exactly the same at both tournaments.
A slower surface will help Ruud and de Minaur. A quicker one will help Kyrgios, who hasn’t played since his surprising exit in the quarterfinals of the US Open, and has been back home in Australia. It will also help Denis Shapovalov.
The jury’s still out, as the Tokyo court was medium-paced. But the revamp for last year’s Olympics had a lot of players complaining about the slowness of the surface.
Most of the Japan Open first-round odds, with a weaker qualifying field and some Japanese wild cards, are fairly one-sided.
Best Bet: Casper Ruud to win tournament (+600)
Best Longshot: Denis Shapovalov (+1400)
Kokkinakis vs Coric Pick
Thanasi Kokkinakis was due to meet No. 2 seed Norrie in the first round.
But with the Brit’s withdrawal, the Japan Open shuffled the draw, with Borna Coric becoming a “No. 9” seed.
It’s the first meeting between the two, and Coric hasn’t played since Matteo Berrettini won going away in their Davis Cup finals pool match three weeks ago.
Borna Coric is still practicing in Seoul, so i guess the ankle issue is not very serious. #KoreaOpen pic.twitter.com/C5u6mn1kv9
— Sunny (@rafancoreana) September 27, 2022
Coric travelled to Seoul last week. But he ended up withdrawing late because of an ankle issue.
Kokkinakis is a good enough player to trouble the Croat, with a bit of rust and even a slight concern on movement.
Prediction: Over 2.5 Sets (+138)
Kecmanovic vs Nishioka Pick
Yoshihito Nishioka is the slight favorite in this one. And normally that would be a no-brainer, as pedestrian as Miomir Kecmanovic has been in recent months.
But Nishioka was dealing with a shoulder issue in the Seoul final against Shapovalov. He had a big week, upsetting top seed Ruud as well. And after winning the tournament, he might well take a week to breathe – except it’s the Japan Open, in his homeland.
Nishioka is CHAMPION again! 🏆
How 🇯🇵 @yoshihitotennis captured his 2⃣nd ATP Tour title with a stunning win in Seoul 👇#KoreaOpen
— ATP Tour (@atptour) October 2, 2022
The match won’t happen Monday, but could happen Tuesday. That doesn’t give him much recovery time at all.
Prediction: Kecmanovic in Three Sets (+325)
Shapovalov vs Johnson Pick
The 23-year-old Canadian had a great week in Seoul last week – only to fall in the final against Nishioka, whom he jokingly characterized as “super-annoying” during the trophy ceremony.
He was right on that; Nishioka has given many top players fits and now is 2-0 vs. the Canadian.
But Johnson should prove to be less annoying, a good opening match at the Japan Open for a Shapovalov intent on finishing the season on a positive note.
Their only previous meeting came at Indian Wells in 2019, in the second round, on a slow, gritty hard court. Shapovalov won in straight sets.
That was the year Shapovalov rapped on court.
Prediction: Shapovalov in Two Sets (-141)
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Sports Writer
Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
