- The Paris Masters 1000 is the final chance for players to qualify for the ATP Finals
- Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal are back in action, with Djokovic the favorite to win the tournament
- Scroll down for 2022 Rolex Paris Masters first-round odds plus predictions on some select early clashes
Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal are back in action for the Paris Masters this week.
It’s the final ATP Tour event before the year-end finals in Turin, Italy.
And their presence changes the landscape quite a bit.
Rolex Paris Masters First-Round Odds
|Sebastian Baez (ARG) vs. Karen Khachanov (RUS)||+400 / -560|
|Roberto Bautista Agut (ESP) vs. Tommy Paul (USA)||-141 / +115|
| Pablo Carreño Busta (ESP) vs. Albert Ramos-Viñolas (ESP)||-375 / +285|
| Marin Cilic (CRO) vs. Lorenzo Musetti (ITA)||-175 / +138|
|Daniel Evans (GBR) vs. Brandon Nakashima (USA)||-118 / -106|
|Taylor Fritz (USA) vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (ESP)||-360 / +275|
| Hubert Hurkacz (POL) vs. [WC] Adrian Mannarino (FRA)||-335 / +260|
|Aslan Karatsev (RUS) vs. Yoshihito Nishioka (JPN)||-155 / +120|
|Miomir Kecmanovic (SRB) vs.  Cameron Norrie (GBR)||+130 / -162|
|Sebastian Korda (USA) vs. Alex de MInaur (AUS)||-125 / +102|
|Alex Molcan (SVK) vs. [WC] Richard Gasquet (FRA)||+140 / -177|
|Andy Murray (GBR) vs. [WC] Gilles Simon (FRA)||-345 /+265|
|[WC] Arthur Rinderknech (FRA) vs. Jack Draper (GBR)||+132 / -165|
|Holger Rune (DEN) vs. [PR] Stan Wawrinka (SUI)||-195 / +155|
|Diego Schwartzman (ARG) vs. Maxime Cressy (USA)||+143 / -180|
|Denis Shapovalov (CAN) vs. Francisco Cerundolo (ARG)||-315 / +245|
|Botic Van de Zandschulp (NED) vs. Grigor Dimitrov (BUL)||+145 / -180|
Odds as of Oct. 30 at Barstool Sportsbook. Get the Barstool Sportsbook promo code to bet on the Paris Masters.
As is usually the case in tournaments he plays, Djokovic – seeded No. 6 – is the heavy favorite to win the Paris Masters at +160.
Nadal, the No. 2 seed, is down the list a bit at +1000. Which makes sense given his late-season indoor record, and the fact that he has played just one match since losing to Frances Tiafoe in the round of 16 at the US Open nearly two months ago.
That one match was the doubles farewell with Roger Federer at the Laver Cup. In the interim, he’s a new father.
With Auger-Aliassime reaching the final in Basel, five players are OFFICIALLY eliminated from the ATP Race to the Finals:
Small chances for Hurkacz and Fritz, who need to win the Paris Masters to qualify.
— Relevant Tennis | Stats & Info (@RelevantTennis) October 29, 2022
Medvedev, Auger-Aliassime Among the Other Favorites
Daniil Medvedev, who won the Vienna Open Sunday, is second on the list at +400, followed by Carlos Alcaraz (perhaps overvalued at +650).
Félix Auger-Aliassime, who won his third title in three weeks in Basel Sunday, is fourth at +900. But with his qualification for Turin all but assured, and the wear and tear of three weeks, it would be surprising to see him holding the trophy at the end.
Felix Auger-Aliassime claims a third consecutive ATP Tour crown in Basel and his fourth career singles title of the season. pic.twitter.com/7gsUfYJhc9
— Laver Cup (@LaverCup) October 30, 2022
Here are some picks for the first-round matches, which take place Monday and Tuesday.
Rune vs Wawrinka Prediction
Holger Rune, who has gone 13-2 the last three weeks with one title and two finals, looked like a toddler who needed a nap during his final against Auger-Aliassime in Basel Sunday.
He won’t be in Turin for the finals, so this is his last tournament of the season.
But he faces a Stan Wawrinka who has picked his comeback level up a notch in recent weeks – and already seems very, very keen to do more in 2023.
STAN THE MAN! 💥
At 37 years old, after several surgeries, Stan Wawrinka defeats the world number 3 Casper Ruud in Basel (6-4 6-4) 👏👏 pic.twitter.com/Qs0q4Kwyy7
— We Are Tennis (@WeAreTennis) October 25, 2022
Rune is the favorite, but look for the upset from the Swiss veteran here.
Prediction: Wawrinka moneyline (+155)
Cilic vs Musetti Prediction
Cilic is the seeded player, at No. 15, but Musetti, still just 20, is rising quickly and, at a career-high No. 23, is coming on in this late season.
He lost his opener in Basel last week, coming straight from a big moment in his home country, a win over fellow Italian Matteo Berrettini in the Naples final. That tournament was outdoors.
Musetti will have had a chance to rest, recuperate and adjust. And in keeping with the youngsters coming on in October, with the older players a bit more weary, we’re predicting the upset here.
Prediction: Musetti in Three Sets (+410)
Shapovalov vs Cerundolo Prediction
This is another case where a player is coming from several weeks of tough effort, with little turnaround time to play a prestigious Masters 1000.
— Daniil Medvedev (@DaniilMedwed) October 30, 2022
The Canadian Shapovalov played one brilliant set vs. Medvedev Sunday in the Vienna final. But ultimately he was beaten in three. And he’ll have to get to the Paris Masters, get used to new conditions and immediately take on the hard-hitting Cerundolo.
He’s never played Cerundolo, who’s had a tough indoor season but also faced Hubert Hurkacz in one opener, and then Dominic Thiem the next two weeks.
It will be a challenge for Shapovalov, and it won’t be smooth sailing.
Prediction: Over 2.5 Sets (+163)