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Rolex Paris Masters Odds & First Round Predictions

Stephanie Myles

by Stephanie Myles in Tennis

Oct 30, 2022 · 9:47 AM PDT

Sep 23, 2022; London, United Kingdom; Roger Federer (SUI) and Rafael Nadal (ESP) and Novak Djokovic (SRB) of Team Europe on court at the opening of the Laver Cup tennis event. Mandatory Credit: Peter van den Berg-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Paris Masters 1000 is the final chance for players to qualify for the ATP Finals
  • Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal are back in action, with Djokovic the favorite to win the tournament
  • Scroll down for 2022 Rolex Paris Masters first-round odds plus predictions on some select early clashes

Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal are back in action for the Paris Masters this week.

It’s the final ATP Tour event before the year-end finals in Turin, Italy.

And their presence changes the landscape quite a bit.

Rolex Paris Masters First-Round Odds

Matchup Odds
Sebastian Baez (ARG) vs. Karen Khachanov (RUS) +400 / -560
Roberto Bautista Agut (ESP) vs. Tommy Paul (USA) -141 / +115
[14] Pablo Carreño Busta (ESP) vs. Albert Ramos-Viñolas (ESP) -375 / +285
[15] Marin Cilic (CRO) vs. Lorenzo Musetti (ITA) -175 / +138
Daniel Evans (GBR) vs. Brandon Nakashima (USA) -118 / -106
Taylor Fritz (USA) vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (ESP) -360 / +275
[10] Hubert Hurkacz (POL) vs. [WC] Adrian Mannarino (FRA) -335 / +260
Aslan Karatsev (RUS) vs. Yoshihito Nishioka (JPN) -155 / +120
Miomir Kecmanovic (SRB) vs. [12] Cameron Norrie (GBR) +130 / -162
Sebastian Korda (USA) vs. Alex de MInaur (AUS) -125 / +102
Alex Molcan (SVK) vs. [WC] Richard Gasquet (FRA) +140 / -177
Andy Murray (GBR) vs. [WC] Gilles Simon (FRA) -345 /+265
[WC] Arthur Rinderknech (FRA) vs. Jack Draper (GBR) +132 / -165
Holger Rune (DEN) vs. [PR] Stan Wawrinka (SUI) -195 / +155
Diego Schwartzman (ARG) vs. Maxime Cressy (USA) +143 / -180
Denis Shapovalov (CAN) vs. Francisco Cerundolo (ARG) -315 / +245
Botic Van de Zandschulp (NED) vs. Grigor Dimitrov (BUL) +145 / -180

Odds as of Oct. 30 at Barstool Sportsbook. Get the Barstool Sportsbook promo code to bet on the Paris Masters.

As is usually the case in tournaments he plays, Djokovic – seeded No. 6 – is the heavy favorite to win the Paris Masters at +160.


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Nadal, the No. 2 seed, is down the list a bit at +1000. Which makes sense given his late-season indoor record, and the fact that he has played just one match since losing to Frances Tiafoe in the round of 16 at the US Open nearly two months ago.

That one match was the doubles farewell with Roger Federer at the Laver Cup. In the interim, he’s a new father.

Medvedev, Auger-Aliassime Among the Other Favorites

Daniil Medvedev, who won the Vienna Open Sunday, is second on the list at +400, followed by Carlos Alcaraz (perhaps overvalued at +650).

Félix Auger-Aliassime, who won his third title in three weeks in Basel Sunday, is fourth at +900. But with his qualification for Turin all but assured, and the wear and tear of three weeks, it would be surprising to see him holding the trophy at the end.

Here are some picks for the first-round matches, which take place Monday and Tuesday.

Rune vs Wawrinka Prediction

Holger Rune, who has gone 13-2 the last three weeks with one title and two finals, looked like a toddler who needed a nap during his final against Auger-Aliassime in Basel Sunday.

He won’t be in Turin for the finals, so this is his last tournament of the season.

But he faces a Stan Wawrinka who has picked his comeback level up a notch in recent weeks – and already seems very, very keen to do more in 2023.

Rune is the favorite, but look for the upset from the Swiss veteran here.

Prediction: Wawrinka moneyline (+155)

Cilic vs Musetti Prediction

Cilic is the seeded player, at No. 15, but Musetti, still just 20, is rising quickly and, at a career-high No. 23, is coming on in this late season.

He lost his opener in Basel last week, coming straight from a big moment in his home country, a win over fellow Italian Matteo Berrettini in the Naples final. That tournament was outdoors.

Musetti will have had a chance to rest, recuperate and adjust.  And in keeping with the youngsters coming on in October, with the older players a bit more weary, we’re predicting the upset here.

Prediction: Musetti in Three Sets (+410)

Shapovalov vs Cerundolo Prediction

This is another case where a player is coming from several weeks of tough effort, with little turnaround time to play a prestigious Masters 1000.

The Canadian Shapovalov played one brilliant set vs. Medvedev Sunday in the Vienna final. But ultimately he was beaten in three. And he’ll have to get to the Paris Masters, get used to new conditions and immediately take on the hard-hitting Cerundolo.

He’s never played Cerundolo, who’s had a tough indoor season but also faced Hubert Hurkacz in one opener, and then Dominic Thiem the next two weeks.

It will be a challenge for Shapovalov, and it won’t be smooth sailing.

Prediction: Over 2.5 Sets (+163)


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