Simona Halep’s US Open Odds +730 After Winning Wimbledon Title

• Simona Halep is at +730 to win the 2019 U.S. Open
• Naomi Osaka still struggles on grass and clay, but thrives on the hard courts
• Sloane Stephens is up-and-down, but has played well at the U.S. Open the last two years

The Wimbledon fortnight is over, which means attention shifts to the U.S. Open, the fourth and final major tournament of the tennis season. Simona Halep claimed Wimbledon and now has average US Open odds of +730. Is she a good bet or is there value on the board with other players?

2019 U.S. Open Odds

Odds taken 07/16/19.

Pass on Halep at Flushing Meadows

Halep winning Wimbledon is one of the bigger surprises of women’s tennis in 2019. She was not prominently mentioned as a leading favorite for the title, yet defeated Victoria Azarenka in the third round, got some favorable matchups in the second week of the tournament, and then played great to beat Elina Svitolina and Serena Williams.

Halep got a lot of free points on serve and attacked well on grass, a surface which rewards attacking tennis. She will be a contender at the U.S. Open, but will people trust her to win back-to-back majors? She’s made it to the U.S. Open semis once, the quarters twice, and every other time has failed to make it past the fourth round.

In each of the last two years, she’s been knocked out in the first round. That’s a concern. She’s decent on hard courts as she was 28-7 last year, 19-10 in 2017 and 24-10 in 2016. However, clay is where she makes her money as she’s 36-6 on the red surface from 2016-2018. I wouldn’t bet on her in U.S. Open futures.

Sloane Stephens Can Make a Run

The year for Sloane Stephens has been a bust, but Stephens is known for struggling and slumping for a bunch of weeks and then rising up to win a big tournament or at least make the final. Stephens is an up-and-down player as she rides the rollercoaster for better or worse.

If she hasn’t done a lot this year, don’t let that dissuade you from picking her to thrive at the U.S. Open. She could win the whole thing for a second time, having won her first U.S. Open in 2017. She won in 2017 and went to the quarters last year, so she’s worth a look as one of the longer shots.

Osaka Is a Good Bet

The Australian Open champion is excellent on hardcourts, but she just as clearly struggles on clay and grass. Osaka looked lost and helpless in a first-round loss at Wimbledon against Yulia Putintseva, and Putintseva did not last very long at Wimbledon after beating Osaka. That tells us a lot.

As a result of her struggles on grass, Osaka has played very few matches over the past month of grass competition. She is rusty, but she is also rested, and now she gets to return to hardcourts, where she has won her two majors and is very comfortable on the surface.

She gets a reliable bounce on hardcourts, enabling her to time the ball extremely well. There are clay specialists and grass specialists. Right now, Osaka is a hardcourt specialist. This gives her a really good chance to do well at the U.S. Open. If you look at her past three months, you’d want to bet against her.

If you look at her last several months of hardcourt-specific results, she is the best hardcourt player in the world right now. That’s why she is among the favorites right now and is a good bet.