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US Open Men’s Singles Semifinals Odds & Betting Preview: Matteo Berrettini vs Rafael Nadal

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in Tennis

Updated Apr 13, 2020 · 10:29 AM PDT

Tennis Betting
Rafael Nadal is a massive favorite in the 2019 US Open semifinals. Photo By Shinya Suzuki (Flickr) [CC License]
  • Rafael Nadal has played in a grand slam semifinal 33 times; this will be Matteo Berrettini’s first. 
  • Berrettini has spent over six more on the courts this tournament than Nadal.
  • Berrettini is just 16-19 on the hard courts in his career.

Rafael Nadal had a tough test in the US Open quarters but he still won his match against Diego Schwartzmann in straight sets.

Now it’s off to the semifinals where he’s a massive favorite against Matteo Berrettini. Can the upstart Italian challenge him or will Nadal cruise?

Nadal vs Berrettini US Open Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
Matteo Berrettini +7.5 (+105) +1119 31.5 (+106)
Rafael Nadal -7.5 (-125) -1719 31.5 (-126)

*Odds taken 09/05/19 

Nadal Gets By Schwartzmann

Nadal did end up winning his quarterfinal match in straight sets, but it wasn’t as easy as the final score might indicate. Nadal was actually up a double break both in the first set and the second set and ended up blowing both leads. He still ended up winning those sets but him getting broken twice in a row twice is unheard of.

What’s fascinating is that Nadal’s serve had been incredible throughout the tournament as he had only been broken once entering the match. However, Schwartzmann is known as one of the best returners on the ATP Tour, so it’s not overly surprising that Nadal was challenged.

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The other issue for Nadal was that his forehand was off in the first two sets. He missed a lot of routine winners that he should have closed out on, which is what made this match drag on. He can’t afford to do that in the semifinals.

Who Is Matteo Berrettini?

There’s no Novak Djokovic or Roger Federer to face Nadal. Instead, its Matteo Berrettini, who has never even been to the semifinal of a grand slam. He’s actually won a pair of titles this season and is 34-15 on the season, so he’s no slouch.

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The concern with Berrettini is that he’s played almost nobody of note at the 2019 US Open, but he’s spent over 15 hours on the courts; six more than Nadal. Berrettini played unseeded players in his first four matches and required four sets in the first three. Then on Wednesday, the only time he faced a ranked player, he needed a five set tiebreaker to oust No. 12 Gael Monfils.

Keep in mind that Monfils isn’t exactly a grand slam juggernaut and he was quite erratic, committing 76 unforced errors.

Berrettini’s tournament wins were at events where there really weren’t any stars. He won at the Hungary Open on clay where world #39 Laslo Djere was a No. 5 seed and he won at the Mercedes Cup on grass where Karen Kachanov was the No. 2 seed.

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It’s also worth noting that Berrettini is actually better on other surfaces. He’s 16-19 in his career on hard courts compared to 24-12 on clay and 13-5 on grass.

2019 US Open Key Stats

Rafael Nadal
Matteo Berrettini
47-8 2019 Record 34-15
2 2019 Singles Titles 2
0 Head-To-Head Record 0
1 Sets Lost At 2019 US Open 5
2 Seeded Players Defeated At 2019 US Open 1

What’s The Best Bet?

Berrettini is quite confident right now but this is Nadal’s to lose. Berrettini just played a five-set marathon against Monfils where Berrettini blew a 5-2 lead in the last set along with four match points before putting him away. Nadal won’t be nearly as forgiving.

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Can Berrettini win? It’s possible but he’ll have to play the match of his life. Given that Nadal is the much fresher of the two players, is the much better player overall and has far more experience in the latter stages of grand slams, he should advance.

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