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Connecticut Sun vs Atlanta Dream Odds & Prediction – WNBA July 22

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in WNBA

Updated Jul 21, 2023 · 7:22 PM PDT

Connecticut Sun players celebrating on court
May 19, 2023; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Connecticut Sun forward Alyssa Thomas (25) celebrates a and one with teammates in the second half against the Indiana Fever at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Connecticut Sun are 1.5-point favorites vs the Atlanta Dream in WNBA action Saturday
  • Connecticut snapped Atlanta’s 7-game win streak in their previous meeting Thursday
  • See below for the latest Sun vs Dream picks, odds, analysis and best bet

Two teams looking to make moves inside the top half of the WNBA playoff bracket collide when the Connecticut Sun (16-6, 8-3 away) visit the Atlanta Dream (12-9, 5-5 home).

It’s the second half of a home-and-home set, and the fourth and final meeting between these teams this season.

The Sun put an end to Atlanta’s 7-game win streak with an 82-71 win on July 20, which gives them wins in four of their last five, and eight of their last 11 overall.

Action gets underway Saturday (July 22) at 1pm ET from the Gateway Center Arena in College Park, Georgia. You can watch the game live on ESPN.

Sun vs Dream Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Connecticut Sun -1.5 (-110) -125 Ov 168.5 (-110)
Atlanta Dream +1.5 (-110) +105 Un 168.5 (-110)

The Sun are 1.5-point favorites and -125 on the moneyline, an implied win probability of 55.56%.

At 8-3, the Sun have the second-best road record in the W. Atlanta is 5-5 at home, but they’ve reeled off four straight since starting 1-5.

Connecticut trails only the Las Vegas Aces for most wins in the league, but are percentage points behind the New York Liberty in third, as New York has a few games in hand.

Atlanta is tied with Dallas at 12-9, and sit in fifth in the overall standings. Securing fourth would land them a home playoff date in Round 1.


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Odds as of July 21 from DraftKings Sportsbook. Claim a DraftKings promo code to bet Saturday’s Sun vs Dream WNBA matchup.

Hiedeman Erupts to Stop Dream

Powered by Natisha Hiedeman, Connecticut used a late third-quarter 16-0 run to break a 2-point game into a double-digit lead and never look back, stopping Atlanta’s 7-game fun-run.

Hiedeman had 20 points in the third period, part of a career-high 24 points, to go along with three rebounds, three assists and four steals.

She made hay from distance, connecting on 6-for-7 from three-point range. That snapped a 3-point shooting slump, as she had made just six triples in her last seven games.

Alyssa Thomas offered plenty of support, adding 12 points, 10 rebounds, seven dimes, two steals and two blocks.

Thomas’ all-around game is lethal: she averages 14.8 points, while leading the Sun in rebounds (9.5) and assists (8.0), while averaging 1.9 steals per game — the 2nd-best mark in the W.

Connecticut is fifth in scoring at 83.8 points per game, and own the third-best point differential in the league at +5.4.

Atlanta Locked Down in Connecticut

The 3rd-highest scoring team in the league ran into Connecticut’s 2nd-best scoring defense, as Atlanta put up just 71 points in the loss, nearly 15 points below their season average (85.7).

The Dream were also done in by 21 turnovers that were converted into 17 Sun points. On the season, that’s been one of Atlanta’s weaknesses: their 15.8 turnovers per contest are 2nd-last in the W.

Rhyne Howard was the leading scorer with 22 points, to go along with two rebounds, three assists and three steals. Allisha Gray finished with 18 points, six boards and seven dimes.

On the year, Howard leads the team in scoring at 18.8 points, shooting 38.5% from distance on 7.4 attempts per game. Gray is right behind at 17.9 points, adding five boards and 3.5 dimes.

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Sun vs Dream Betting Prediction

Connecticut (+1800) is third in the WNBA Championship odds, with Atlanta in a distant sixth (+9000).

The Sun feast on mistakes, as they average a league-best 19.5 points off turnovers, while Atlanta is bottom-4 on points allowed off giveaways at 17 per contest.

Connecticut also wins a lot on the margins: they allow just 13.6 points off turnovers and 7.6 points against on the fast break, both tops in the WNBA.

Sun vs Dream Head-to-Head Stats

Dallas Wings
Minnesota Lynx
83.8 (5th) Points Per Game 85.7 (3rd)
44.6% (3rd) Field Goal Percentage 43.9% (6th)
37.1% (3rd) Three-Point Percentage 36.1% (4th)
33.8 (8th) Rebounds 37.3 (2nd)
21.1 (3rd) Assists 19.1 (7th)
13.6 (3rd) Turnovers 15.8 (11th)
+5.4 (3rd) +/- +0.1 (6th)

For the Dream to compete, they’re going to have to improve defensively, where they surrender 85.5 points per game, which ranks 11th out of the 12-team league.

In the pervious three matchups, Atlanta has allowed 86.3 points per game, and their only win was when they went to overtime in a 92-88 shootout.

Look for that trend to continue, and Atlanta’s home win-streak to come to a halt.

  • The Pick: Sun -1.5 (-110)
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