Super Bowl Betting: 10 Wild ATS & Over/Under Trends You Need to Know
NFL betting trends can be tricky. Let’s say you wanted to bet on the Patriots to win Super Bowl 52 but the Eagles to cover the spread? STOP! Do not make any Super Bowl wagers until you have seen these 10 against-the-spread and game-total Super Bowl trends.
#1 NFL ATS Trend: Just Pick the Winner
“The Team That Wins the Game Is 43-6-2 ATS”
Six teams have won the Super Bowl but failed to cover the spread: the Steelers in Super Bowls 43 & 10 (-7 in both), Patriots in Super Bowls 38 & 39 (-7 in both), Cowboys in Super Bowl 30 (- 13.5), and 49ers in Super Bowl 23 (-7). The two pushes came in Super Bowl 34 (Rams over Titans) and Super Bowl 31 (Packers over Patriots).
#2 NFL ATS Trend: Heavy Favorites Struggle
The three teams to cover as more than three-point favorites are the Broncos in Super Bowl 33 (-7.5), Steelers in Super Bowl 40 (-4), and Colts in Super Bowl 41 (-7). The New England Patriots are currently five-point favorites in Super Bowl 52.
#3 NFL ATS Trend: Betting the Underdog
“Underdogs are 12-4 ATS in the Last 16 Super Bowls”
The four favorites to cover the spread in the last 16 Super Bowls include the Patriots in Super Bowl 51, Packers in Super Bowl 45, Colts in Super Bowl 41, and Steelers in Super Bowl 40. While the Patriots did cover as the favorite last year, keep in mind they account for four losses as a favorite (Super Bowls 38, 39, 42, and 46) and needed OT to cover in Super Bowl 51.
#4 NFL ATS Trend: ‘Dogs Love NBC
“Underdogs Are 5-0 ATS in the Last 5 Super Bowls Broadcast by NBC”
The last five Super Bowls broadcast on NBC were:
- 2015: Patriots beat the Seahawks straight-up as an underdog
- 2012: Giants beat the Patriots straight-up as an underdog
- 2009: Steelers beat the Cardinals as a favorite, but failed to cover the 7-point spread
- 1998: Broncos upset the heavily-favored Packers
- 1996: Cowboys beat the Steelers as a favorite, but failed to cover the 13.5-point spread
NBC is scheduled to broadcast Super Bowl 52.
#5 NFL ATS Trend: NFC Covers up North
“The NFC is 4-1 ATS in Super Bowls Played in Northern States”
The only AFC team to cover the spread in a Super Bowl played in a northern state was the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl 40, which was played in Detroit. Super Bowl 52 will be held in a northern state, as well (Minneapolis).
#1 NFL Totals Trend: The Over Sweet Spot
Super Bowls 49, 48, 47, 45, and 43 all had game totals set between 45 and 48 points, and each of them went OVER. The total for Super Bowl 52 is currently set at 48.
#2 NFL Totals Trend: NFC East = Low-Scoring
The NFC East has represented the NFC in the Super Bowl six times since 1984: Super Bowls 46, 42, 39, 35, 30, and 28. Super Bowl 30 between the Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers is the only one where the game total went OVER.
Super Bowl 52 will again feature the NFC East.
Bonus: The UNDER is 7-3 when the Super Bowl features an NFC East and AFC East team.
#3 NFL Totals Trend: AFC Favors the Under
“The Under Is 6-3 in the Last 9 Super Bowls Where the AFC Is Favored”
Super Bowls 51, 48, 46, 44, 43, 42, 41, 40, and 39 account for the last nine times the AFC has served as the favorite. The game total only went OVER in 51, 48, and 43.
The AFC (New England Patriots) is again favored in Super Bowl 52.
#4 NFL Totals Trend: Top Seeds Score
Dating back to 1985, we have seen the top seeds from both conferences make the Super Bowl eight times. In five of those instances, the game total has gone OVER: Super Bowls 49, 48, 26, 24, and 19. Super Bowls 50, 44, and 28 stayed UNDER the total.
The New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles are the top seeds from their respective conferences.
#5 NFL Totals Trend: Over on NBC
“The Over Is 3-1 in the Last 4 Super Bowls Broadcast by NBC”
In 2012, the Patriots and Giants came five points short of their 53- point total. This accounts for the only under in the last five Super Bowls broadcast by NBC.