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NFL betting trends can be tricky. Let’s say you wanted to bet on the Patriots to win Super Bowl 53 but the Rams to cover the spread?

STOP!

Do not make any Super Bowl bets until you have seen these 10 against-the-spread and game-total Super Bowl trends.

1) Just Pick the Winner

Nick Foles hoisting the Lombardi Trophy

Six teams have won the Super Bowl but failed to cover the spread:

  • Steelers in Super Bowls 43 & 10 (-7 in both)
  • Patriots in Super Bowls 38 & 39 (-7 in both)
  • Cowboys in Super Bowl 30 (- 13.5)
  • 49ers in Super Bowl 23 (-7).

The two pushes came in Super Bowl 34 (Rams over Titans) and Super Bowl 31 (Packers over Patriots).

The Eagles added to this trend last year, winning Super Bowl 52 as an underdog.

2) Underdogs Are Barking

Panthers QB Cam Newton Being Sacked by Broncos Von Miller

The four favorites to cover the spread in the last 16 Super Bowls include:

  • Patriots in Super Bowl 51
  • Packers in Super Bowl 45
  • Colts in Super Bowl 41
  • Steelers in Super Bowl 40

While the Patriots did cover as the favorite in Super Bowl 51, keep in mind they account for five losses as a favorite: Super Bowls 38, 39, 42, 46, and 52. (And they needed OT to cover in Super Bowl 51.)

New England will again serve as the favorite in Super Bowl 53.

3) NFC West Teams Score in Super BowlsA scoreboard featuring a score of 34-31

The last four Super Bowls featuring NFC West teams include:

  • Super Bowl 49 (NE vs SEA): 47.5 total; 52 points scored
  • Super Bowl 48 (SEA vs DEN): 47.5 total; 51 points scored
  • Super Bowl 47 (BAL vs SF): 48 total; 65 points scored
  • Super Bowl 43 (PIT vs ARI): 46 total; 50 points scored

The NFC West will once again be represented in 2019, as the Los Angeles Rams advanced to the Super Bowl.

4) Small Spread = Lots of Points

A close up image of a football

The last seven Super Bowls that had spreads equal to or less than three points were:

  • Super Bowl 51 (NE -3): total was set at 57.5; 62 points were scored
  • Super Bowl 49 (SEA -1): total was set at 47.5; 52 points were scored
  • Super Bowl 48 (DEN -2): total was set at 47.5; 51 points were scored
  • Super Bowl 46 (NE -2.5): total was set at 53; only 38 points were scored
  • Super Bowl 45 (GB -3): total was set at 45; 56 points were scored
  • Super Bowl 35 (BAL -3): total was set at 33; 41 points were scored
  • Super Bowl 22 (DEN -3): total was set at 47; 52 points were scored

The spread of the 2019 Super Bowl seems to have settled in at 2 to 2.5 points.

5) Underdogs Cover in Rematches

Ty Law returning an interception in Super Bowl 36

Super Bowl 53 will be a rematch of Super Bowl 36 between the Los Angeles Rams and New England Patriots – the Rams were located in St Louis in the previous Super Bowl.

The Steelers in Super Bowl 13 (a rematch of Super Bowl 10 with the Cowboys) and Cowboys in Super Bowl 28 (a rematch of Super Bowl 27 with the Bills) are the only favorites to cover in a rematch of a previous Super Bowl.

6) Underdogs Cover Small Spreads

Richard Sherman when he was a member of the Seattle Seahawks

Super Bowls 49 (Patriots upset Seahawks), 48 (Seahawks upset Broncos), and 46 (Giants upset Patriots) were the last three Super Bowls with spreads less than three points.

Super Bowl 53’s spread will also likely remain under three points.

7) AFC Prefers a CBS Broadcast

The CBS broadcast team

CBS has broadcast Super Bowls 50 (Broncos over Panthers), 47 (Ravens over 49ers), 44 (Saints over Colts), 41 (Colts over Bears), 38 (Patriots over Panthers), and 35 (Ravens over Giants).

The AFC covered in each of those games except for 44 and 38.

Super Bowl 53 will br broadcast by CBS.

8) Points Are Hard to Come By in Atlanta

A map highlighting Atlanta, Georgia

Super Bowls 28 (Cowboys over Bills) and 34 (Rams over Titans) were both held in Atlanta, Georgia. The total was set at a hefty 50.5 for the former, yet only 43 points were scored. The total was set at 45 in the second, but only 39 points were scored.

Super Bowl 53 will also be held in Atlanta, Georgia. You can find the total set anywhere between 56.5 and 57.5.

9) AFC Favorite = Low-Scoring

A football sitting on the field

Super Bowls 52, 51, 48, 46, 44, 43, 42, 41, 40, and 39 account for the last nine times the AFC has served as the favorite. The game total only went OVER in 52, 51, 48, and 43.

The AFC (New England Patriots) is again favored in Super Bowl 53. But they have accounted for two OVERs the last two seasons.

10) 55+ Points May be Too High for the Total

A scoreboard featuring the score 17-14

Super Bowls 51 (NE-ATL), 44 (NO-IND), and 42 (NYG-NE) are the only ones to have game totals set at 55+ points. The most recent one, Super Bowl 51, is the only one to hit the OVER.

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After receiving a bachelor's degree in communications from the University of Ottawa ('15), Matt spent two years with Rogers TV as a host, producer, and play-by-play commentator. He has been with us since 2016 and serves as SBD's Editor-in-Chief and sports betting expert.