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NFL team trends can be a lot of fun. They can also be a great help in making bets, especially when it comes to the Super Bowl—the less obscure ones, anyways. The 2024 Super Bowl sees the San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada on Sunday, February 11.

Let’s say you wanted to bet on the San Francisco 49ers to win Super Bowl 58 but aren’t sure if you want to bet them to cover the spread. STOP! A very strong Super Bowl ATS trend suggests the moneyline isn’t the play here.

Do not lock in any Super Bowl bets until you have seen these 10 against-the-spread and over/under Super Bowl trends. (Also strongly recommend you check in frequently with the Super Bowl odds as well …)

1) The Team Who Wins the Super Bowl Almost Always Covers the Spread

The team who wins the Super Bowl tends to cover the spread as well

Simply put, just the pick the winner of the Super Bowl. The team who wins the game is 48-7-2 against the spread in Super Bowl history.

Only seven teams have won the Super Bowl but failed to cover the spread:

  • Rams in Super Bowl 56 (-4.5)
  • Steelers in Super Bowls 43 & 10 (-7 in both)
  • Patriots in Super Bowls 38 & 39 (-7 in both)
  • Cowboys in Super Bowl 30 (- 13.5)
  • 49ers in Super Bowl 23 (-7)

The two pushes came in Super Bowl 34 (Rams over Titans) and Super Bowl 31 (Packers over Patriots).

Last year’s Super Bowl added to this trend, as the Chiefs beat the Eagles 38-35 as underdogs.

So the general sentiment here is that if you like the favorite (49ers) to win, bet them against the spread (-2 currently). If you like the underdog (Chiefs), don’t worry about taking the points; bet them on the moneyline (+110 right now).

2) Super Bowl Underdogs Have Been Hot Against the Spread Lately

Underdogs are hot in recent Super Bowls

Underdogs have been hot in the last 22 Super Bowls, going 15-6 against the spread in that time. If you had bet $100 on each underdog to cover the spread in the last 22 Super Bowls, you would have profited $854.41.

The six favorites to cover the spread in the last 20 Super Bowls include:

  1. Chiefs in Super Bowl 54
  2. Patriots in Super Bowl 53
  3. Patriots in Super Bowl 51
  4. Packers in Super Bowl 45
  5. Colts in Super Bowl 41
  6. Steelers in Super Bowl 40

You can take a deeper look at Super Bowl betting data in our historical Super Bowl spreads.

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The Chiefs added to this trend last year when they covered as 1.5-point underdogs against the Eagles.

The Chiefs are 2-point underdogs in the 2024 Super Bowl when they take on the San Francisco 49ers.

3) Points Are Scored in Super Bowls with the AFC West

AFC West means the total goes over

Three of the last four Super Bowls featuring an AFC West team went under:

  • The Chiefs and Eagles go well over their 51.5 total in Super Bowl 57
  • The Chiefs and Buccaneers came up well short in Super Bowl 55
  • The Chiefs and 49ers only fell a couple points shy of their 53.5 total in Super Bowl 54 (52 points scored)
  • The Broncos and Panthers only combined for 34 points – the total was 43.5 – in Super Bowl 50

You have to go all the way back to 1984, though, to find the next one that went under, as Super Bowls featuring the AFC West reeled off eight straight overs, making the over 9-3 in the last 12.

The total for Super Bowl 58 is sitting at 47.5 right now.

4) Small Super Bowl Spreads Have Meant Lots of Points

Small spreads mean lots of points

With two teams that are believed to be so evenly matched, it makes sense that lots of points would be scored. Both coaches are throwing the kitchen sink at each other on offense and trying to steal a possession, knowing they’ll need all the points they can get.

The last 11 Super Bowls that had spreads equal to or less than three points were:

Recent Super Bowls with Spreads of 3 or Less

Super Bowl Matchup Spread Total Points Scored O/U Result
Super Bowl 57 Kansas City vs Philadelphia PHI -1.5 51.5 73 OVER
Super Bowl 55 Kansas City vs Tampa Bay KC -3 56.5 40 UNDER
Super Bowl 54 San Francisco vs Kansas City KC -1.5 53.5 52 UNDER
Super Bowl 53 New England vs Los Angeles NE -2.5 55.5 16 UNDER
Super Bowl 51 New England vs Atlanta NE -3 57.5 62 OVER
Super Bowl 49 New England vs Seattle SEA -1 47.5 52 OVER
Super Bowl 48 Seattle vs Denver DEN -2 47.5 51 OVER
Super Bowl 46 New York Giants vs New England NE -2.5 53 38 UNDER
Super Bowl 45 Pittsburgh vs Green Bay GB -3 45 56 OVER
Super Bowl 35 Baltimore vs New York Giants BAL -3 33 41 OVER
Super Bowl 22 Washington vs Denver DEN -3 47 52 OVER

As you can see, the over has hit in seven of them. But the more recent trend has said under in three of the last four.

Super Bowl 58 sees the 49ers favored by just two points. The total is set at 47.5.

5) Favorites Don’t Cover in Super Bowl Rematches

Super Bowl rematches favor dogs

There have not been a ton of Super Bowl rematches in the past, but the previous matchups include:

  • Philadelphia Eagles and New England Patriots (2005, 2018) – Eagles covered as dogs in the rematch
  • Pittsburgh Steelers and Dallas Cowboys (1976, 1979, 1996) – Steelers covered as the favorites in 1979 but then covered as dogs in 1996
  • Miami Dolphins and Washington Redskins (1973, 1983) – Washington won outright as underdogs in the rematch
  • San Francisco 49ers and Cincinnati Bengals (1982, 1989) – Bengals covered as underdogs in the rematch
  • Dallas Cowboys and Buffalo Bills (1993, 1994) – Cowboys covered as favorites in the rematch
  • Patriots and New York Giants (2008, 2012) – Giants won outright as underdogs in the rematch
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Favorites have only covered in two of the seven rematches and both of those games included the Cowboys. Super Bowl 58 will be a rematch of Super Bowl 54 and the Chiefs are the underdogs.

6) Male-Led Super Bowl Halftime Shows Call for Unders

Male led halftime shows prevent points

Here’s a look at the last 13 Super Bowl halftime shows that were male-led:

  • Super Bowl 56 (Dr Dre, Snoop, Eminem)
  • Super Bowl 55 (The Weeknd)
  • Super Bowl 53 (Maroon 5)
  • Super Bowl 52 (Justin Timberlake)
  • Super Bowl 50 (Coldplay)
  • Super Bowl 48 (Bruno Mars)
  • Super Bowl 44 (The Who)
  • Super Bowl 43 (Bruce Springsteen)
  • Super Bowl 42 (Tom Petty & The Heartbreakers)
  • Super Bowl 41 (Prince)
  • Super Bowl 40 (The Rolling Stones)
  • Super Bowl 39 (Paul McCartney)
  • Super Bowl 36 (U2)

Only three of those games saw their totals go over: 52 (Eagles vs Patriots), 48 (Seahawks vs Broncos), and 43 (Steelers vs Cardinals). Usher will perform at the Super Bowl 58 halftime show and the total is set at 47.5.

7) NFC Can’t Cover Super Bowl Spreads as Favorites

NFC hasn't performed as a favorite

This trend actually goes back further than you’d (likely) expect. The AFC has often served as the favorite in the Super Bowl since the turn of the century. Looking to the last 11 Super Bowls where the NFC was listed as the betting favorite, we land all the way back in 1996.

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Here are the ten times the NFC has been favored in that span:

  • Super Bowl 30, where the Cowboys failed to cover as 13.5-point favorites against the Steelers
  • Super Bowl 31, where the Packers and Patriots spread pushed
  • Super Bowl 32, where the Packers lost outright as 11-point favorites against the Broncos
  • Super Bowl 34, where the Rams and Titans spread pushed
  • Super Bowl 36, where the Rams lost outright to the Patriots as 14-point favorites
  • Super Bowl 45, where the Packers DID cover as 3-point favorites against the Steelers
  • Super Bowl 47, where the 49ers lost outright to the Ravens as 4.5-point favorites
  • Super Bowl 49, where the Seahawks lost outright to the Patriots as 1-point favorites
  • Super Bowl 50, where the Panthers lost outright to the Broncos as 4.5-point favorites
  • Super Bowl 56, where the Rams won but failed to cover as 4.5-point favorites against the Bengals
  • Super Bowl 57, where the Eagles lost outright to the Chiefs as 1.5-point favorites

As you see, they’re just 1-8-2 against the spread in their last 11 Super Bowls when serving as the favorite. The NFC will have another chance to prove they can cover a Super Bowl spread as the favorite, with the 49ers listed as 2-point favorites over the Chiefs in Super Bowl 58.

8) Male-Led Halftime Show Means Underdogs Cover

Underdogs prefer males leading the halftime show

I’ll hold off on listing all the male-led halftime shows again, since I did that above. But the only with favorite to cover in the last nine male-led performances was Super Bowl 53 (Patriots beating Rams 13-3, covering as 2.5-point favorites).

9) Underdogs Shine When Reigning Champs Make it Back

Underdogs cover when reigning champs try to repeat

The Kansas City Chiefs are trying to repeat as Super Bowl champions. They’d be the first repeat champions since the 2003-2004 Tom brady-led New England Patriots.

But when reigning champions make it back to the big game, the underdog tends to cover the spread. Here’s a look at the last six Super Bowls where a team had a chance to repeat as champions:

  • Super Bowl 55 (Chiefs vs Buccaneers) – the Bucs upset the Chiefs as 3-point underdogs
  • Super Bowl 52 (Eagles vs Patriots) – The Eagles upset the Patriots as 4.5-point underdogs
  • Super Bowl 49 (Patriots vs Seahawks) – the Patriots upset the Seahawks as 1-point underdogs
  • Super Bowl 39 (Patriots vs Eagles) – New England did repeat as Super Bowl champions, but the Eagles covered as 7-point underdogs
  • Super Bowl 33 (Broncos vs Falcons) – Denver is the only favorite to cover in the last six Super Bowls where a team is trying to repeat, as they easily covered as 7.5-point favorites
  • Super Bowl 32 (Packers vs Broncos) – Green Bay was upset by the Broncos as 11-point favorites
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The Chiefs are two-point underdogs in Super Bowl 58.

10) CBS Produces Low Scoring Super Bowls

Overs rarely hit on CBS

Here’s a quick look at the last six Super Bowls broadcast by CBS:

  • Super Bowl 55: the total goes under in Chiefs vs Buccaneers
  • Super Bowl 53: the total goes well under in Patriots vs Rams
  • Super Bowl 50: the total goes under in Panthers vs Broncos
  • Super Bowl 47: the total goes over in Ravens vs 49ers
  • Super Bowl 44: the total goes under in Saints vs Colts
  • Super Bowl 41: the total goes under in Colts vs Bears

Looking to the last six Super Bowls broadcast on CBS, Super Bowl 47 between Baltimore and San Francisco is the only one to go over its total.

11) Strong Rushing Performances Lead to ATS Victories

A good rushing attack means a covered spread

Because I like you, I’m throwing in one more trend (maybe a couple more)! But this isn’t one that necessarily points to one side or the other prior to the game, since it is based off performance in the Super Bowl.

Nevertheless, here it is: the team who rushes for more yards in the Super Bowl is 40-14-3 against the spread.

Last year, we saw the Chiefs rush for 158 yards versus the Eagles’ 115 yards on the ground, and Kansas City covered the spread. The 49ers in Super Bowl 54 are the only team in the last six years to rush for more yards than their opponent and not cover the spread.

The 49ers finished the regular season with the third-most rush yards in the NFL, but have seen their opponents outrush them in both of their playoff games. The Chiefs ranked 19th in rushing yards but have outrushed two of their three playoff opponents so far.

12) Underdogs Like a Low Total

Underdogs love a low total

Here’s a look at the last six Super Bowls with totals less than 50: (1) Super Bowl 47, when the Ravens won outright as underdogs; (2) Super Bowl 48, when the Seahawks won outright as underdogs; (3) Super Bowl 49, when the Patriots won outright as underdogs; (4) Super Bowl 50, when the Broncos won outright as underdogs; (5) Super Bowl 52, when the Eagles won outright as underdogs; and (6) Super Bowl 56, when the Bengals covered as underdogs.

The total is once again less than 50 in Super Bowl 58.

13) Games with Totals Between 45-48 Go Over

Overs are perfect in the last six when the total is set between 45-48

Super Bowls 49, 48, 47, 45, and 43 all had game totals set between 45 and 48 points, and each of them went over their respective total.

If you liked this one, check out our straight up Super Bowl trendsIf you’re new to betting and want to join the (likely) thousands of others who will dive into a new sportsbook for the Super Bowl, be sure to read the following first:

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After working in TV, Matt turned his focus towards numbers, specifically odds. He has been with us since 2016 and serves as SBD's Editor-in-Chief, credited with creating our futures trackers, SBD's score predictor, SBD Sharp, and his own model for calculating NFL SOS, among other products.