15 Crazy Super Bowl Betting Trends to Know Before Super Bowl 58
Before you make your final decision on betting either the San Francisco 49ers or Kansas City Chiefs for Super Bowl 58, make sure you’ve done your research!
A good starting point will be ensuring you know the 2024 Super Bowl odds. As you move your way down that list of research, eventually you’ll want to know these mind-blowing, historically-rooted Super Bowl trends.
1) Teams Wearing White Jerseys Have Edge in Super Bowl
This is one of the strongest, yet most obscure, Super Bowl trends you will find! The team wearing their white jerseys has won 16 of the last 19 Super Bowls now.
The only three teams to win a Super Bowl in the last 19 years without wearing their white jerseys were the:
- Green Bay Packers in Super Bowl 45
- Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl 52
- Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl 54
Last year’s designated home team, the Philadelphia Eagles, chose to wear their green jerseys and they ultimately lost to the Chiefs.
This year, the Chiefs followed suit in choosing not to wear their white jerseys, opting instead for their red jerseys. The bad news is they’re putting themselves on the wrong side of this trend. The good news is Kansas City is one of the three teams to defy this trend, beating the 49ers(!) in Super Bowl 54 while wearing red as well.
2) Favorites Hold a Hefty Advantage in Super Bowl History
Favorites absolutely dominated the early Super Bowls, as only three underdogs won in the first 14 years. Entering Super Bowl 58, favorites are 37-20 in the championship game.
You can see who the favorite was each year with our past Super Bowl betting lines.
The 49ers are currently 2-point favorites over the Chiefs in the 2024 Super Bowl.
This trend has recently reversed, though …
3) Underdogs Have the Edge in Recent Super Bowls
Underdogs have had a lot of success in the Super Bowl lately. Looking to the last 12 big games, underdogs have won eight of them outright.
The Los Angeles Rams, New England Patriots, and Kansas City Chiefs are the only teams who have won the Super Bowl as the favorite in the last 12 years —New England did it in Super Bowl 51 and 53.
The San Francisco 49ers are favored to win the 2024 Super Bowl, making the Kansas City Chiefs the underdogs. Bettors are currently siding with the underdog Chiefs, as the NFL public betting splits show the majority of the moneyline bets and money are on Kansas City.
4) Super Bowl Experience Doesn’t Matter
So much for experience matters, right? The team with fewer Super Bowl-experienced players has gone on to win ten of the last 17 Super Bowls.
Both the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs have played in Super Bowls somewhat recently. Thanks to the Chiefs being very recent – Super Bowl 57 – they have the clear advantage in terms of Super Bowl-experienced players. Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Isiah Pacheco, Creed Humphrey, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Chris Jones, L’Jarius Sneed, Justin Reid, Trent McDuffie, Nick Bolton, and Harrison Butker are just some of the names who are still on the Chiefs roster now from their Super Bowl 57 win.
The 49ers last Super Bowl appearance came in 2020, when they lost the Chiefs in Super Bowl 54. While there are some names still around from that team, their roster looks quite different. Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Kyle Juszczyk, Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, Dre Greenlaw, Fred Warner, and Mitch Wishnowsky are the only players left from that team. They do also have Charvarius Ward, who was a Chief in Super Bowl 54.
San Francisco will be the team with fewer Super Bowl-experienced players, giving them the advantage with this trend.
5) AFC Wins Super Bowls in February
Super Bowl 36 marked the first time the NFL’s championship game was played in February. It has only been played in January once since then.
The AFC hopes the game remains in February moving forward, as they are 13-8 in Super Bowls played in the month of February.
Super Bowl 58 will take place Sunday, February 11th.
6) AFC West Teams in the Super Bowl Means Upset
Underdogs have won the recent Super Bowls that feature a team from the AFC West – Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Las Vegas Raiders, or Los Angeles Chargers.
Here’s a look at the last eight Super Bowls that have included a team from the AFC West:
- Super Bowl 57 (Chiefs beat the Eagles as 1.5-point dogs)
- Super Bowl 55 (Buccaneers beat Chiefs as 3-point dogs)
- Super Bowl 54 (Chiefs beat 49ers as 1.5-point favorites)
- Super Bowl 50 (Broncos beat Panthers as 4.5-point dogs)
- Super Bowl 48 (Seahawks beat Broncos as 2-point dogs)
- Super Bowl 37 (Bucs beat Raiders as 4-point dogs)
- Super Bowl 33 (Broncos beat Falcons as 7.5-point favorites)
- Super Bowl 32 (Broncos beat Packers as 11-point dogs)
The Chiefs overcame this trend four years ago against the 49ers, winning as a favorite in a Super Bowl that included an AFC West team, but advanced this trend in Super Bowls 55, when they lost as favorites, and 57, when they won as underdogs. They serve as the underdog in Super Bowl 58 now too.
7) NFC Likes Super Bowls in Domes
The NFC has enjoyed when Super Bowls are played indoors. They are now 16-6 when the game is held indoors, as we have most recently seen the Rams beat the Bengals in Super Bowl 56 at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, the Patriots beat the Rams in Super Bowl 53 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, and the Eagles beat the Patriots in Super Bowl 52 at US Bank Stadium in Minneapolis.
The NFC did lose Super Bowl 57 at State Farm Stadium (a dome) in Glendale, Arizona, though. Allegiant Stadium, the host for Super Bowl 58, is also a domed stadium.
8) Underdogs Like a Male-Led Halftime Show
The last seven Super Bowls to feature a male-led halftime show were:
- Super Bowl 56 (Snoop, Dre, Eminem) – the Rams beat the Bengals as favorites
- Super Bowl 55 (The Weeknd) – the Buccaneers upset the Chiefs
- Super Bowl 53 (Maroon 5) – the Patriots beat the Rams as favorites
- Super Bowl 52 (Justin Timberlake) – the Eagles upset the Patriots
- Super Bowl 50 (Coldplay) – the Broncos upset the Panthers
- Super Bowl 48 (Bruno Mars) – the Seahawks upset the Broncos
- Super Bowl 44 (The Who) – the Saints upset the Colts
As you see, underdogs won five of those seven games, with the Rams & Patriots serving as the only favorites to win. Super Bowl 58 sees Usher performing at halftime.
9) NFC West Struggles in Super Bowls
Some football fans will realize this trend had to stop before we got back to the 49ers’ dominance in the 80’s and early 90’s. But since then, NFC West teams have not fared well in the Super Bowl. They are just 2-7 in their last nine Super Bowls.
The NFC West’s last nine Super Bowl appearances include:
- Super Bowl 56 when the Rams beat the Bengals
- Super Bowl 54 when the 49ers lost to the Chiefs
- Super Bowl 53 when the Rams lost to the Patriots
- Super Bowl 49 when the Seahawks lost to the Patriots
- Super Bowl 48 when the Seahawks beat the Broncos
- Super Bowl 47 when the 49ers lost to the Ravens
- Super Bowl 43 when the Cardinals lost to the Steelers
- Super Bowl 40 when the Seahawks lost to the Steelers
- Super Bowl 36 when the Rams lost to the Patriots
The 49ers have an opportunity to get the NFC West a much needed win in Super Bowl 58.
10) Underdogs Thrive with Low Totals
The last six Super Bowls that meet this criteria are:
- Super Bowl 56 where the favored Rams beat the Bengals when the over/under was set at 48.5
- Super Bowl 52 where the Eagles upset the Patriots when the over/under was set at 49
- Super Bowl 50 where the Broncos upset the Panthers when the over/under was set at 43
- Super Bowl 49 where the Patriots upset the Seahawks when the over/under was set at 47.5
- Super Bowl 48 where the Seahawks upset the Broncos when the over/under was set at 47.5
- Super Bowl 47 where the Ravens upset the 49ers when the over/under was set at 48
The total in Super Bowl 58 is currently set at 47.5.
11) NFC Has Not Been a Good Super Bowl Favorite Lately
The NFC has not been favored in many Super Bowls lately, thanks to the Chiefs and Patriots dominance over the last handful of years. However, they are serving as the favorites again in Super Bowl 58, but have not come through when favored lately.
The last five times the NFC was favored to win the Super Bowl are as follows:
- Super Bowl 57 when the Eagles lost to the Chiefs as 1.5-point favorites
- Super Bowl 56 when the Rams beat the Bengals as 4.5-point favorites
- Super Bowl 50 when the Panthers lost to the Broncos as 4.5-point favorites
- Super Bowl 49 when the Seahawks lost to the Patriots as 1-point favorites
- Super Bowl 47 when the 49ers lost to the Ravens as 4.5-point favorites
The NFC is 1-4 in their last three Super Bowls when listed as the favorite. They are serving as the favorite again in Super Bowl 58, as the 49ers are laying two points.
12) AFC Likes CBS
Super Bowl 58 will be broadcast by CBS. Here are the last eight Super Bowls broadcast by CBS:
- Super Bowl 55: the Buccaneers beat the Chiefs
- Super Bowl 53: the Patriots beat the Rams
- Super Bowl 50: the Broncos beat the Panthers
- Super Bowl 47: the Ravens beat the 49ers
- Super Bowl 44: the Saints beat the Colts
- Super Bowl 41: the Colts beat the Bears
- Super Bowl 38: the Patriots beat the Panthers
- Super Bowl 35: the Ravens beat the Giants
The Buccaneers and Saints are the only NFC teams to win on CBS since Washington beat Buffalo back in 1992. However, CBS did not broadcast a Super Bowl from 1993-2000.
13) Trying to Repeat Is Hard
There are only seven teams who have won consecutive Super Bowl titles, with the Steelers accomplishing the feat twice. Many others have had the opportunity to repeat, but fell short in the championship game. Here’s a look at the 14 times where Super Bowl champions made it back to the big game:
- Super Bowl 55 – the defending champion Chiefs lost to the Buccaneers
- Super Bowl 52 – the defending champion Patriots lost to the Eagles
- Super Bowl 49 – the Seahawks repeat bid came up short against the Patriots in dramatic fashion
- Super Bowl 39 – the Patriots repeated as champions, defeating the Eagles
- Super Bowl 33 – the Broncos hammered the Falcons to repeat as Super Bowl champions
- Super Bowl 32 – the Packers attempt at winning back-to-back was thwarted by the Broncos
- Super Bowl 28 – the Cowboys made good on their second attempt at repeating, beating the Bills for a second straight year
- Super Bowl 24 – the 49ers won their second straight championship in 1990, demolishing the Broncos 55-10
- Super Bowl 18 – Washington could not add their name to the list of repeat champions, falling to the Raiders in the Super Bowl
- Super Bowl 14 – the Steelers repeated as champions again, beating the Los Angeles Rams to hoist the Lombardi for a second straight season
- Super Bowl 13 – the Cowboys failed to repeat, losing to the Steelers in this one
- Super Bowl 10 – the Steelers became the third franchise to win back-to-back titles, beating the Cowboys in the second one
- Super Bowl 8 – the Miami Dolphins knocked off the Vikings to win back-to-back championships
- Super Bowl 2 – the Packers won the first two Super Bowls
The Chiefs will have a second attempt at repeating as Super Bowl champions, as their first attempt was unsuccessful.
14) AFC Prefers Cowboys in the Booth
It doesn’t go back very far, but it’s worth mentioning that the AFC has won three of the last four Super Bowls where a former Cowboy was in the broadcast booth – Super Bowl 54 (Troy Aikman), Super Bowl 53 (Tony Romo), and Super Bowl 51 (Troy Aikman).
The NFC stopped this trend in 2021, when the Bucs defeated the Chiefs as Tony Romo called the game for CBS. Romo will be back on the job alongside Jim Nantz for CBS’ broadcast of Super Bowl 58.
15) Regular-Season Wins Mean Nothing in Super Bowl
*The New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles had identical 13-3 records when they met in Super Bowl 52, as did the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs (14-3 records) in Super Bowl 57; this is why there are missing wins/losses.
Apparently it’s true when you hear the announcers say, “it doesn’t matter how they got here”. The team with the worse regular season record is 13-3 in the last 18 Super Bowls.
The 2021 Los Angeles Rams (Super Bowl 56), 2016 New England Patriots (Super Bowl 51) and 2008 Pittsburgh Steelers (Super Bowl 43) are the only three teams in the last 18 years who possessed a better regular-season record than their Super Bowl opponent and went on to win the game.
The San Francisco 49ers finished the regular season with a 12-5 record, while the Chiefs were just 11-6. So, give KC the advantage with this one.
16) The AFC Has the Edge in Recent Super Bowls
This trend looked even stronger three years ago, prior to the NFC winning two of the last three Super Bowls. Nevertheless, the NFC teams to win a Super Bowl in the last 11 years are the:
- Los Angeles Rams, who beat the Cincinnati Bengals 23-20 in Super Bowl 56
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who took down the Chiefs in Super Bowl 55
- Seattle Seahawks, who dismantled the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl 48
- Philadelphia Eagles, who beat the New England Patriots in Super Bowl 52
The Kansas City Chiefs are the AFC champions, and will look to repeat as Super Bowl champions.
The Eagles, Falcons, Panthers, 49ers (twice), Rams, and even those mighty Seahawks (Super Bowl 49) have fallen victim to AFC teams in this timeframe.
If you enjoyed these fun Super Bowl trends, check out our ATS and Over/Under trends for the Super Bowl. If you’re new to betting and find yourself wanting to back any of the trends above, see the following pages for help getting started: