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  • See the most recent NFL CPOY odds
  • Seahawks QB Geno Smith and 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey are the co-favorites to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year for the 2022 NFL season
  • Track how the NFL CPOY odds have changed over the course of the 2022-23 NFL season

The NFL Comeback Player of the Year award has been handed out consistently since 1998. The AP did hand out an award from 1963-1966, but awarded one to the AFL and one to the NFL. The award often goes to a player who has returned from some serious injury and performed well.

The 2022 NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds favor Titans running back Derrick Henry, who fractured his foot last year, forcing him to miss more than half of the regular season. You can see the latest NFL CPOY odds below as well as how the odds have changed throughout the season.

NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds

Derrick Henry opened as the favorite to win the NFL CPOY award and remained the favorite until rookie Brian Robinson Jr was shot twice late in the preseason. Robinson Jr is off crutches and has a chance to return by Week 5.

Jameis Winston took over as the new favorite after Week 1, but Saquon Barkley held that title after Week 3 right through Week 9. Geno Smith displaced him as the favorite following Week 9, but gave it back after Week 10. It flip flopped again to Geno as the favorite following Week 11. Smith, Barkley, and Christian McCaffrey have been locked in a tight race over the final month of the regular season. We did not see odds reopen after Week 18 kicked off.

Odds to Win NFL CPOY

Player Odds to Win NFL CPOY
Geno Smith +175
Christian McCaffrey +175
Saquon Barkley +225
Jared Goff +1000
Derrick Henry +4000

Odds as January 3 at DraftKings Sportsbook; if you’re not already signed up, check out the best DraftKings Sportsbook promos before registering.

Geno Smith and Christian McCaffrey currently have the best odds to win the NFL Comeback Player of the Year award. Their odds are listed at +175, implying they each have a 36.4% chance to win the award. If you bet $20 on the Seahawks QB or 49ers RB to win NFL CPOY, you’d stand to win $35 and return $55.

Here are some notes on the NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds movement:

  • [January 3] Christian McCaffrey and Geno Smith are listed as co-favorites to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year after Week 17.
  • [December 26] After totalling 133 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown in Week 16, Saquon Barkley has seen his odds improve from +2200 to +175. This ties him with Geno Smith, who posted a season-low 74.5 passer rating against the Chiefs, for the best odds to win the award.
  • [December 19] After not receiving odds all season, Jared Goff has shown up out of nowhere listed at +225 odds to win NFL CPOY. He is tied with Christian McCaffrey for the second-best odds on the board, only behind Geno Smith, who is favored at +100. Smith’s odds have worsened from -900 to +100 in the last week.
  • [November 21] After a lousy 22 yards on 15 carries in Week 11 against the Lions, Saquon Barkley’s odds faded from -115 to -105. Geno Smith has become the favorite again with -130 odds.
  • [November 15] Geno Smith only lasted one week as the NFL CPOY favorite. The Seahawks loss to the Bucs in Germany saw Smith’s odds fade from -135 to -110, letting Saquon Barkley move back to being the favorite.
  • [November 7] Geno Smith has taken over as the new favorite to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year, as his odds improved from +225 to -135 after he led the Seahawks to a win over the Cardinals in Week 9. Saquon Barkley has moved to second, as his odds dropped from -155 to +140 while his Giants were on bye.
  • [November 1] After making an incredible return to the field in Week 8, Nick Gates has shown up on the odds board, seeing +1900 odds to win NFL CPOY. Gates, a center for the Giants, suffered a compound fracture in his leg in a Week 3 game last season that required seven surgeries, and there were talks of potential amputation. But Gates fought through and made his return in Week 8.
  • [October 25] Travis Etienne Jr’s odds improved from +10000 to +2500 after the Jaguars traded James Robinson to the Jets, clearing the path for Etienne to be a workhorse in Jacksonville.
  • [October 12] After yet another very strong performance in Week 5, Geno Smith has seen his NFL CPOY odds improve from +3000 to an average of +950. Smith has the second-best odds on the board, behind only Saquon Barkley, who is now the odds-on favorite at -245.
  • [October 4] Saquon Barkley continues to near even-money to win the NFL CPOY award. Barkley’s NFL CPOY odds are now +150, improving from +250 before Week 4. JK Dobbins’ odds improved from +3000 to +1300 following a three-touchdown performance against the Bills.
  • [September 27] Another good game from Saquon Barkley in Week 3, which saw him total 126 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown, has made him the favorite to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year. Barkley’s odds improved from +600 to +250. Jameis Winston’s odds fell from +600 to +1600 after turning in his second straight game with multiple interceptions.
  • [September 20] After another lousy performance in Carolina’s Week 2 loss to the Giants, Baker Mayfield’s odds to win NFL CPOY have faded from +800 to +2500. Jameis Winston and Saquon Barkley are now listed as co-favorites, but no player is really breaking away from the pack right now.
  • [September 12] After leading his Saints to a comeback win over the Falcons in Week 1, Jameis Winston has become the new favorite to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year. His odds improved from +550 to +500. His teammate Michael Thomas saw his odds improve from +1200 to +600, the second-best odds on the board, after hauling in two touchdowns against Atlanta.
  • [September 7] Washington Commanders rookie RB Brian Robinson Jr was shot during an attempted robbery late in the preseason. The third-round pick has already shed his crutches and is targeting a Week 5 return. The crazy turnaround after being shot twice in the knee has resulted in Robinson Jr becoming the new favorite to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year. Derrick Henry is now a close second in the NFL CPOY odds after being the favorite basically all offseason.
  • [July 27] Though his first day at Panthers training camp didn’t look the best, Baker Mayfield’s NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds have improved from +1800 to +1200 thanks to being traded to Carolina. The new home gives Mayfield a chance to compete for the starting job.
  • [April 11] Derrick Henry has opened as the favorite to win the 2022 NFL Comeback Player of the Year award. Henry missed more than half of the 2021 season with a foot fracture, but is expected to be at full speed come Week 1 of the 2022 season.

NFL Comeback Player of the Year Trends

  • A quarterback has won the NFL Comeback Player of the Year award in each of the last four seasons
  • Each of the last eight NFL CPOY winners missed at least five games due to injury the prior season—Philip Rivers in 2013 was the last player to win it without getting hurt the year prior
  • No defensive player has won the award since Eric Berry in 2015
  • Since the award came back in 1998, we have seen 15 quarterbacks win, three wide receivers, five defensive players, one running back, and one tight end
  • The NFL CPOY award was shared in 2005, when Tedy Bruschi and Steve Smith Sr. were both named NFL CPOY

Past NFL Comeback Player of the Year Winners

Year NFL CPOY Winner
2021 Joe Burrow (Bengals)
2020 Alex Smith (Washington)
2019 Ryan Tannheill (Titans)
2018 Andrew Luck (Colts)
2017 Keenan Allen (Chargers)
2016 Jordy Nelson (Packers)
2015 Eric Berry (Chiefs)
2014 Rob Gronkowski (Patriots)
2013 Philip Rivers (Chargers)
2012 Peyton Manning (Broncos)

Joe Burrow won the 2021 NFL Comeback Player of the Year award after leading the Bengals to an impressive 10-7 record en route to winning the AFC North. The previous season, Burrow tore his ACL in Cincinnati’s tenth game of the season, not leaving a ton of time for Burrow to recover ahead of the 2021 NFL season. The second-year QB came back to lead the NFL in completion percentage (70.4%) and threw for 4,611 yards and 34 touchdowns.

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After working in TV, Matt turned his focus towards numbers, specifically odds. He has been with us since 2016 and serves as SBD's Editor-in-Chief, credited with creating our futures trackers, SBD's score predictor, SBD Sharp, and his own model for calculating NFL SOS, among other products.