NFL Strength of Schedule for 2026 – SOS Rankings & Calculations

• 2026-27 NFL strength of schedule rankings for every team from toughest to easiest
• See SBD’s proprietary (and more accurate) method for calculating NFL Strength of Schedule
• The Dolphins face the toughest 2026 schedule, while the Saints have the easiest

While there were a good number of games leaked early, the full 2026 NFL schedule release happened on May 14. However, we have known each team’s opponents for the 2026 season after last season ended, and also had data from sportsbooks on how each team is projected to perform well before the release. I have compiled all of this data to calculate the NFL strength of schedule for every team using my much more accurate method. Now that we have the full schedule available, I have also included some more specific data from the strength of schedule calculation, such as easy/tough first four games / half of the season and more.

You can find each team’s full season NFL SOS below!

Note: 1 is the most difficult, while 32 is the easiest 2026-27 schedule.

2026 NFL Strength of Schedule Rankings

For too long we have wasted our time using team’s record from the previous season to calculate NFL strength of schedule rankings for the upcoming season. Stop this! There are far too many flaws involved in this method.

We should be using something much more forward-looking for NFL strength of schedule instead. Back in 2018, I came up with the idea to use the win totals put out by sportsbooks each season to determine how difficult each team’s schedule was going to be. It has provided a much better look at which teams are preparing to face easy/tough schedules for the upcoming season. I have since tinkered with my calculation to add in home/away factors, since some teams have performed far better either at or away from home.

Using 2026 NFL win totals, I have come up with my own NFL Strength of Schedule by adding the projected wins (from sportsbooks) of each team’s 17 opponents this season. The team with the toughest 2026 NFL schedule is the Miami Dolphins, while the team with the easiest 2026 NFL schedule is the New Orleans Saints.

The range in my NFL Strength of Schedule rankings is from 134.7, on the easy end (up from 131.5 last year), to 158.3 on the tough end (which is up a little from 155.9 last year). The median sum of 2026 opponents’ win totals is 145.6, while the average (mode) is 145.3.

You can read on for some further analysis of this year’s NFL SOS rankings, or go check out the full NFL schedule.

Who Has the Hardest Schedule in the NFL 2026?

The Miami Dolphins have the hardest schedule in the 2026 NFL season. After looking at the Dolphins’ 2026 schedule, it seems nothing will be easy for new head coach Jeff Hafley in his first season. Not only are the Bills and Patriots two tough teams to have to play twice this season, but the AFC East matches up with the AFC West and NFC North this season. Those are arguably two of the best divisions in football.

Where things get really unlucky for the Dolphins is their third-place matchups. Miami finished ahead of the Jets in the AFC East last season, meaning they match with the third-placed teams from the AFC North, AFC South, and NFC West this year. Those teams are the Bengals, who are contenders with a healthy Joe Burrow, Colts, who appeared to be very good prior to Daniel Jones getting hurt last year, and 49ers, who were one game away from taking the top seed in the NFC last season.

Miami Dolphins’ 2026-27 Schedule

Miami’s average opponent in 2026 is a 9.3-win team. When considering location of the game, they only play three opponents who are viewed as less than an 8-win team.

Top 5 Hardest 2026 NFL Schedules

1. Miami Dolphins (Avg 9.3-win opponent)
2. Arizona Cardinals (9.2)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (9.1)
4. Chicago Bears (9.0)
5. Dallas Cowboys (8.9)

The gap between the Dolphins’ schedule and the team with the next-most difficult schedule, the Arizona Cardinals, is only 2.5 combined wins.

Who Has the Easiest 2026 NFL Schedule?

The easiest schedule in the 2026 NFL season belongs to the New Orleans Saints. The NFC South is full of average-at-best teams, with only Tampa Bay having a regular season win over/under greater than eight. So, that’s six games against not-great opponents.

While there will be some difficult games coming from the NFC South matching up with the AFC North and NFC North this season, they do avoid playing the Packers at Lambeau Field (they host Green Bay), and also benefit from their fourth-placed finish matching them with the Cardinals, Giants, and Raiders, who are projected to be three of the league’s worst teams.

New Orleans Saints’ 2026-27 Schedule

New Orleans’ average opponent is just a 7.9-win team and they only face three opponents seen as 10+ win teams with location considered. They will play five games against teams with win totals of 6 or less.

Top 5 Easiest 2026 NFL Schedules

1. New Orleans Saints (Avg 7.9-win opponent)
2. Cincinnati Bengals (8.0)
3. Detroit Lions (8.0)
4. Cleveland Browns (8.2)
5. Green Bay Packers (8.2)

The second-easiest schedule in the league belongs to the Bengals, whose schedule is notably tougher with a 136.7 combined win total from their opponents.

Other 2026 NFL SOS Notes

Here are a handful of quick-hitting notes after diving into subsets of the schedule following the NFL schedule release:

• Toughest first 4 games: the Bills have the toughest first four games, as they face an average 10.5-win team over that stretch. Those teams are the Texans (on the road) and then hosting the Lions, Chargers, and Patriots. The latter two teams have actually performed better on the road (adjusted for their opponents) than at home.
• Easiest first 4 games: the 49ers have the easiest first four games, as they only have to deal with an average 6.5-win team. Their Week 1 international clash with the Rams will certainly be tough, but then they get the Dolphins and Cardinals, who are projected to be two of the worst teams in the league this season, at home, followed by hosting the Broncos. Getting to avoid a trip to Mile High Stadium is massive!
• Toughest first half: the Bills’ next four games don’t get much easier than their first four, as they will see an average 10-win team over the first nine weeks of the season.
• Easiest first half: the 49ers schedule remains easy after the first four games as well, as they will only face an average 6.9-win team over the first nine weeks.
• Much harder second half vs first half: unfortunately for the 49ers, their schedule isn’t easy all season. They face an average 9.4-win team over the final nine weeks of the season, which is an increase of 2.5 wins per opponent versus the first half.
• Much easier second half vs first half: thankfully for the Bills, their schedule does lighten up over the final nine weeks. Buffalo faces an average 7.7-win team over the second half of the year, which is 2.3 wins easier than what they face in the first half
• Games vs top teams: the Bills, Chargers, and Chiefs will each face six opponents this season who are seen as 10.5-win teams adjusted for location, which is the most in the NFL. The Bengals only face one team who is seen as a 10.5-win team (adj for location), and it comes in Week 17 when they host the Ravens. (Baltimore has performed slightly better on the road, adjusted for opponent, than at home.)
• Games vs bad teams: the Jets, Lions, and Saints face the most opponents who are seen as less than a 6-win team this season, each getting five games. The Dolphins, Falcons, and Panthers each only play one game against a sub-6-win team.

How to Determine NFL Strength of Schedule

The typical method for calculating NFL strength of schedule has been to take the combined win/loss records of all opponents in a schedule. If you are looking for strength of schedule to break a tie at the end of the season, you simply take the records of all opponents from the current season.

If you want to know strength of schedule as we head into the season – to know which teams have the perceived easiest and toughest schedules ahead – there are many different ways, but many of them are pretty lousy. The most common method is to look at records from the previous season. I think this is an awful method, though, and that’s why I have come up with my own, which calls upon NFL regular season win over/unders from sportsbooks and factors in (recent) historical performance at home and on the road. Let me explain why my method is better and more accurate.

For starters, free agency, the NFL Draft, and other player/coach movement are all capable of dramatically changing a team in just one offseason – see the 2017 Los Angeles Rams under Sean McVay or the 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers with Tom Brady.

Second, injuries/suspensions to star players, namely quarterbacks, can result in a good team suffering through a bad season – see the 2017 Green Bay Packers without Aaron Rodgers. If you’re going to tell me the 2017 Packers are a 7-9 team with Rodgers under center, I’m here to call you crazy.

Sure, sportsbooks can be influenced by where the money is going, and scheduling is sort of worked into their lines, but their win totals still at least reflect the current team, not the past one.

The 2018 Buffalo Bills are a great example of why using projected win totals to calculate strength of schedule is much more appropriate than last year’s record. If we were judging Buffalo by 2017 alone, they would have been counted as a very respectable 9-7 team.

However, the Bills traded QB Tyrod Taylor in the offseason, and entered 2018 with AJ McCarron and then-rookie Josh Allen under center. Buffalo should not have been viewed as a nine-win team. Their 6.5 projected wins were a much closer projection to what they actually were: a 6-win team.

Another example is the 2018 Houston Texans. Only getting six starts out of Deshaun Watson before he tore his ACL, and missing JJ Watt (among others) for 11 games resulted in the 2017 Texans posting an awful 4-12 record. But with both of those players back in 2018, they posted an 11-5 record. Regarding them as a 9.5-win team like sportsbooks suggested was much closer to the team they were.

How Can NFL Strength of Schedule Help You as a Bettor?

No offseason NFL bets should be made before at least considering strength of schedule.

Whether you’re betting Super Bowl futures, NFL win totals, player awards, or even a prop as obscure as the first head coach to be fired, strength of schedule is going to play a major role.

An easy regular season schedule is likely to lead to a higher-seed come playoff time. And with 37 of 72 no. 1 seeds advancing to the Super Bowl since the 1990 season, it’s clear that home field advantage is significant in the postseason. That higher seed in the playoffs also correlates with winning the NFL MVP. Take a look at the last ten NFL MVP winners in the table below:

When it comes to player awards, the average number of regular season wins for the last ten NFL MVPs is 12.8.

So once you have narrowed down your list of potentials for the MVP, it would be wise to consult which of your candidates face easy/difficult schedules, since they’ll likely need to win at least 12 games to take home the honor. Keep this in mind as you scan the NFL MVP odds and favorites for the upcoming season.

NFL Strength of Schedule FAQ

Archived NFL Strength of Schedule:

• 2025
• 2024
• 2023
• 2022
• 2021
• 2020
• 2019
• 2018