Polymarket Super Bowl Odds: Prediction Markets for Super Bowl LXI

• The 2027 Super Bowl odds are trending on prediction markets like Polymarket
• The LA Rams are the current favorites to win the Super Bowl 61
• New users can claim a $20 bonus after making a $10 deposit using the Polymarket promo code DIME

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As NFL players are gearing up to report to training camps, fans across the country are already thinking about which team will win the Super Bowl in six months. Not only are fans thinking about who will win, but they are also turning to NFL prediction markets to buy and sell contracts on the teams they think will be the eventual Super Bowl champions.

Polymarket and other prediction markets have brought a way to get in on the game day action to fans in states like California and Texas that have not yet legalized online sports betting. Rather than being restricted by state laws banning sports betting, prediction markets are federally legal when regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), meaning people can trade on sports and other markets in over 40 states in the US.

Early users of Polymarket may remember the platform was initially banned following a settlement with the CFTC, but the prediction market has returned to the US market after gaining CFTC approval. However, Polymarket is slowly expanding its user base in the US, and some users may have to join a waitlist. Fortunately, other prediction markets, like Kalshi, offer users immediate access to their prediction markets after registering their account.

For traders torn between Polymarket vs Kalshi NFL prediction markets, the main differences between the two platforms are accessibility, as we mentioned above, and how users can fund their accounts. On Polymarket, users must have USDC in their crypto wallet to add funds to their account. This also means that when they want to make withdrawals, they must first transfer it to their crypto wallet before turning it into real cash. All of this makes Polymarket the go-to choice for those looking for a crypto Super Bowl betting option. Kalshi, on the other hand, has a more simplified approach, allowing ACH bank transfers, debit cards, Venmo, Cash App, and Apple Pay to make deposits.

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Current Polymarket Super Bowl Odds

Currently, the Los Angeles Rams are the favorite to win the Super Bowl according to traders on Polymarket with an implied win probability of 17%. Behind the Rams, there is a three-way for second with the Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, and the reigning Super Bowl champs, Seattle Seahawks, all sitting at a 9% probability of winning it all. Rounding out the top five most likely teams to win Super Bowl 61 is the Buffalo Bills at 8%.

Outside of a brief jump in market prices on June 24th that saw the Seahawks shoot up to a 91% implied win probability, with the Rams and 49ers hitting 48%, the markets have remained very stable between OTA and the start of training camps. As the pre-season begins to develop, these market prices will become much more volatile as teams under- and over-perform and injuries pile up. For traders who are confident in their team going all the way, buying a stake now likely offers the best value they will see all year.

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How to Read and Trade Super Bowl Odds on Polymarket

For users who have previously used a traditional sportsbook, the way in which Polymarket presents the odds on an outcome can be a bit confusing and intimidating. Rather than seeing the odds displayed as +150, they will be 40%, which is the market probability. Along with showing the market probability, Polymarket also lets traders know what their potential return ratio is for each event contract. For a market that is listed at 40%, the trader would get a 2.5x return on their stake.

At first, the change from the odds being presented in a sportsbook manner to seeing them shown as market probability can be a bit confusing. However, after the initial shock, the prediction market format simplifies understanding the odds on a given market, with no math being required to know the exact probability of a market winning.

1. The Share Model: On prediction markets like Polymarket, users buy “yes” or “no” event contracts that range in value from 1¢ up to 99¢. For a trader looking at purchasing a 10¢ contract, that means the market views it as having a 10% chance of winning. If they do buy that contract and it wins, the share nets them a 10x return with the share resolving to $1.00 per contract.
2. The In-Game Trading Advantage: Traders on Polymarket can exit their position while a game is still ongoing or sell mid-season on a futures contract. Unlike a sportsbook, Polymarket does not lock users into a bet or force them to accept bad “cash-out” math. Since the platform is a peer-to-peer exchange, users can sell their shares in the middle of a game as momentum shifts to capitalize on their position and minimize any risk. Selling off shares on an underdog to win after they take an early lead is a great way for traders to lock in profit and move on to their next trade without having to sweat it out until the market resolves.

New users can claim the Polymarket invite code to unlock a $20 bonus when they make $10 in trades on markets like the 2027 Super Bowl champion.

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Polymarket’s Unique Super Bowl Markets

Along with being able to trade Super Bowl futures on Polymarket, users can also find an array of prop markets that can not be found on traditional sportsbooks. With contracts ranging from who will headline the halftime show to what brands will advertise during commercial breaks, traders can find a Super Bowl prediction market that fits their interests.

1. The Main Game: Along with Polymarket’s Super Bowl odds, users can also buy and sell event contracts on NFC and AFC conference winners before the season starts to maximize their potential payouts. Traders are not just limited to trading futures; they can also buy contracts during the playoffs on individual games’ moneylines.
2. The Halftime Show & Pop Culture: For those less interested in trading on NFL prediction markets, there are plenty of other ways to get some skin in the game during the Super Bowl. While Polymarket does not yet have prop markets listed for the upcoming Super Bowl, in the past, they have offered a large mix of halftime and pop culture markets. Along with being able to trade on who will be the halftime performer in the lead-up to the performance, users can also buy and sell contracts on whether the performer makes any statements during the halftime show, whether the performance becomes the most-viewed SB halftime on YouTube in the first month, and what will be the first song of the set.
3. Commercials & Cultural Props: Commercial props are another favorite among traders on prediction markets, adding another layer to what is the highlight of the Super Bowl for many viewers. Those hunting for the best platforms for crypto Super Bowl betting can also take advantage of Polymarket’s more niche prop markets, such as what will the announcers say during the game, which celebrities will be in attendance, if there will be a streaker during the game, or the classic prop market of what color will the winning Gatorade bath be.

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Tips for Finding Value on Polymarket’s NFL Markets

NFL prediction markets can offer traders great value finds since they are playing against their peers, rather than the house. Unlike sportsbooks where the oddsmakers are always trying to win and driving tight margins, Polymarket’s contract prices are determined by the public’s interest or belief in a certain outcome, which can create favorable situations for savvy traders.

1. Arbitrage the Hype: Since the Polymarket Super Bowl odds are driven by retail sentiment and public hype, the most popular teams, like the Kansas City Chiefs and the New England Patriots, tend to get overbought, even before a single game has been played. This creates a favorable situation for someone looking to trade Super Bowl futures on smaller market teams and underdogs, particularly for those who can leave their fandom at the door and trade with reason rather than emotion.
2. Watch the Spread/Liquidity: Another value opportunity traders can find with Polymarket’s NFL prediction markets is the ability to exit high-volume markets early to actualize their gains. As long as there is enough liquidity in the market, users can capture the early momentum of a team by selling their stake after a few wins and not having to sweat it out until the Super Bowl or deal with a bad cash-out early offer from a sportsbook.