Cowboys vs Saints Props: Elliott & Kamara Put on a Show on Sunday Night

• Week 4’s Sunday Night Football matchup sees the Dallas Cowboys take on the Drew Brees-less New Orleans Saints
• SNF props record: 0-3 last week; 5-4 on the season (+1.32 units)
• See the three best props to bet for SNF Week 4

After getting burned by Baker Mayfield and a stagnant Browns offense in Week 3, my hot start came to a crashing halt. Now sitting at 5-4, and plus 1.32 units, through three weeks of NFL action, let’s see if we can get things back on track.

Week 4’s edition of Sunday Night Football season sees the (3-0) Dallas Cowboys head to New Orleans to battle the (2-1) Saints. Let’s have a look at the three props I’m focusing on for tonight’s game.

Prop 1: Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards

*All odds taken September 29

Week 3 offered a first glimpse of what the Saints offense will look like minus Hall of Fame QB Drew Brees. Teddy Bridgewater kept the offense close to the line of scrimmage and everything ran through the Saints elite RB Alvin Kamara.

Of the 50 offensive plays for the Saints, the ball ended up in Kamara’s hands 25 times. I expect the Saints and Sean Payton to continue to rely heavily on their talented RB in Brees’ absence and another 20-25 touch game is well within the cards for Kamara.

Kamara’s workload over his Saints tenure has not been that of a workhorse back, but the certain times New Orleans has rode him, he has delivered. In Kamara’s three 2019 games and four 2018 games without Mark Ingram, he has averaged 21.4 touches per game, with 7.4 of those being receptions.

Those 7.4 receptions per game have led to 515 receiving yards, or an average of 73.5. This is a whole 25 yards more than the 48.5 yards being offered in this prop.

Bold strategy by the Seahawks to not even consider tackling Alvin Kamara pic.twitter.com/7Zr7c8PELO

— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) September 22, 2019

Teddy Bridgewater’s modest six yards per pass attempt and conservative style of play are big boosts for Kamara’s usage in the passing game.

Pick: Over (-114)
Risk: 2 units to win 1.75 units

Prop 2: Ezekiel Elliott Rushing Yards

The Cowboys let Ezekiel Elliott get his feet wet in Week 1, after reporting late due to a holdout, before settling him into his normal role the last two weeks.

Zeke has toted the rock 42 times the past two weeks for two 100+ yard rushing efforts.

Runs of 10-or-more yards this season:

Ezekiel Elliott: 10
Dalvin Cook: 9
Saquon Barkley: 8
Matt Breida: 8
Raheem Mostert: 8

Runs of 10-or-more yards since 2016:

Ezekiel Elliott: 120
Todd Gurley: 95
Jordan Howard: 95
Melvin Gordon: 85

— Jon Machota (@jonmachota) September 24, 2019

The Cowboys own Pro Football Focus’ top graded offensive line and match up against a Saints defense that has surrendered 134.3 rush yards per game, at an average of 5.1 per carry.

Zeke is averaging over 95 yards per game on the ground since the beginning of 2018. With Brees out for the Saints, there is very little chance this game script goes down a path that doesn’t favor the NFL’s reigning rushing champion.

Pick: Over (-114)
Risk: 1 unit to win 0.88 units

Prop 3: Ezekiel Elliott Receiving Yards

These kind of odds for a measly 33 receiving yards by one of, if not the, best back in the game can’t be left alone. Sure, 2019 has seen Zeke’s passing game usage pale in comparison to 2018, when he put up a career high 77 receptions.

But I don’t feel we have seen the Cowboys full deployment of their star RB just yet.

#Cowboys Top 10 Plays of the Regular Season: Number 5

Ezekiel Elliott 88 yard td catch and run vs the Steelers#FinishThisFight pic.twitter.com/uJvgwNxW0W

— Dem Boyz Nation (@DemBoyzNation) January 14, 2017

The Cowboys have barely had to play a competitive quarter of football this year. Winning games against teams that will have top ten picks in the 2020 draft, has allowed the Cowboys to lighten the load on Elliott in the passing game while working in new additions on the offense.

A washed up Randall Cobb and a sluggish Jason Witten are fine options while beating on the underlings of the NFL, but the Cowboys face a true test this week in New Orleans, and Zeke should get priority with his 8.8 career yards per reception.

Elliot has only amassed five receptions to this point, after averaging over five catches a game in 2018. He had three catches over 33 yards last year and went over 33 yards in six of his final eight regular season games.

Pick: +33 Receiving Yards
Risk: 1 unit to win 1.4 units