UFC Baku Prelims Predictions & Picks – Best Bets Include Yakhyaev vs Walker

• The UFC lands in Baku on Saturday with a stacked preliminary card featuring seven fights
• Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev is the card’s biggest favorite at -600, but I’m targeting Under 1.5 rounds in his bout vs Julius Walker
• Check out the top UFC Baku Prelims predictions, picks and best bets including Yakhyaev vs Walker

The octagon touches down at the National Gymnastics Arena in Baku, Azerbaijan for UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs Torres on Satuday. The preliminary action kicks off at 9:00 AM ET on Paramount+, with seven fights on the undercard before the main card begins.

This prelim card is loaded with serious betting value from top to bottom. Below, I’ll break down the UFC Baku Prelims predictions, picks and best bets including Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev vs Julius Walker.

UFC Baku Prelims Odds

Odds as of June 26 at DraftKings and Bet365. Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC Baku on Saturday.

Yakhyaev (-600) and Daniil Donchenko (-520) headline the prelim odds as the two heaviest favorites on the board. The lone true coin flip is Tahir Abdullayev vs Jefferson Nascimento, where both men sit at -110.

UFC Baku Prelims Predictions

UFC Baku Prelims Picks: Abdullayev vs Nascimento

• UFC Baku Prelims Best Bet #1: Jefferson Nascimento Moneyline (-110 at Bet365)

This welterweight contest opens the prelims as a true coin flip with both men sitting at -110. However, the implied probability models give Nascimento a slight 51.9% edge over Abdullayev’s 48.1%. In a pick ’em fight, I want the fighter with the statistical edge, and that points to Nascimento here.

Abdullayev has the home crowd behind him in Baku, but Nascimento brings the more well-rounded skill set to the cage. At -110, the value sits firmly with the Brazilian.

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UFC Baku Prelims Picks: Almakhan vs Matsumoto

• UFC Baku Prelims Best Bet #2: Jean Matsumoto Moneyline (-166 at DraftKings)

Matsumoto enters the cage with a stellar 17-2 record, significantly outpacing Almakhan’s 12-3 mark. The implied probabilities tell the whole story here: Matsumoto carries a 59.2% win probability compared to just 40.8% for Almakhan.

UFC Baku Prelims Picks: Donchenko vs Berggren

• UFC Baku Prelims Best Bet #3: Donchenko vs Berggren Under 1.5 Rounds (-105 at DraftKings)

This is one of the biggest favorites on the entire prelim card, and for good reason. Donchenko’s 14-2 record towers over Berggren’s 8-3 mark, and the implied probability model gives the Ukrainian a massive 77.9% chance of winning.

Donchenko stands 180 cm with a 180 cm reach, while Berggren “Simba” has a slight height edge at 183 cm. However, the record gap tells the real story. Donchenko has proven himself against stiffer competition far more often, and at just 24 years old he is still ascending rapidly.

There is absolutely no reason to lay -520 on a straight moneyline, that is dead money offering almost no return. Instead, the Under 1.5 rounds at -105 is the sharp play here. With a dominant favorite facing a fighter who has been stopped three times in just 11 bouts, the finish should come early.

Donchenko’s power and pace should overwhelm Berggren before the second round horn sounds, giving us a near coin-flip price on an outcome that is far more likely than the odds suggest.

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UFC Baku Prelims Picks: Ofli vs Reyes

• UFC Baku Prelims Best Bet #4: Javier Reyes Moneyline (-225 at DraftKings)

I love Reyes in this featherweight spot. He boasts a 23-5 record against Ofli’s 14-4-1, giving him a significantly deeper and more proven resume. The implied probability model backs this up completely, giving Reyes a 66.5% win probability compared to just 33.5% for Ofli.

Reyes holds a massive size advantage for the 145-pound weight class. Standing 178 cm with a 185 cm reach, he towers over the 168 cm Ofli. This physical edge translates directly to octagon control and striking distance.

At -225, the moneyline is still playable, and I fully expect Reyes to out-strike and overwhelm his smaller opponent from the outside.

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UFC Baku Prelims Picks: Ruziboev vs Pulyaev

• UFC Baku Prelims Best Bet #5: Nursulton Ruziboev -3.5 Spread (-135 at DraftKings)

I am completely fading Pulyaev here. Ruziboev brings a massive veteran resume of 36 wins into the octagon, while Pulyaev sits at just 10-4 with only 14 professional bouts to his name. The experience gap is staggering. Ruziboev’s implied win probability sits at 64.9%.

Ruziboev stands 196 cm with a 193 cm reach at middleweight, giving him a physical presence that complements his experience edge. Pulyaev is 193 cm with a 199 cm reach, so while he has the reach advantage on paper, Ruziboev’s veteran savvy negates that.

Instead of laying the -230 moneyline, taking Ruziboev against the spread at -135 gives us much better value. It forces him to win convincingly, which the hard statistics heavily suggest he will do.

UFC Baku Prelims Picks: Yakhyaev vs Walker

• UFC Baku Prelims Best Bet #6: Yakhyaev vs Walker Under 1.5 Rounds (-195 at DraftKings)

Yakhyaev puts his perfect 9-0 record on the line against Walker’s 7-2 mark. The implied probability model gives Yakhyaev an overwhelming 81.0% win probability, the highest on the entire card. Walker has distinct physical advantages, towering at 193 cm with a 206 cm reach, but Yakhyaev is an absolute buzzsaw when the cage door closes.

I refuse to back a straight -600 moneyline favorite. Laying that kind of juice is a surefire way to bleed your bankroll over time. Instead, I am looking at the rounds total.

Yakhyaev, fighting out of Istanbul at just 24 years old, possesses an unblemished record and immense finishing upside. Taking Under 1.5 rounds at -195 ensures we get paid when this light heavyweight fight inevitably ends early.