Verlander, Astros Heavy -221 Favorites Over Castillo, Rays in ALDS Game 4 – Picks & Odds

• The Tampa Bay Rays staved off elimination in Game 3 with a lopsided 10-3 win
• The Rays will put Diego Castillo on the mound for Game 4 even though he’s only started six games this season
• The Astros will counter with ace Justin Verlander, which is why they’re a massive -221 favorite

The Tampa Bay Rays got on the board in Game 3 of the ALDS as they crushed the Houston Astros 10-3. On Tuesday, they’ll try to tie the series, but they’re not expected to.

The Rays are going up against Justin Verlander again and the Astros vs Rays odds have Houston as a huge favorite. Can Tampa Bay pull another upset in this spot?

Astros vs Rays Game 3 Odds

*Odds taken 10/07/19.

Rays Bats Finally Wake Up

The Rays couldn’t get much going in Games 1 and 2, going up against Verlander and Gerrit Cole. They were overpowered by the Astros’ two aces. Game 3 starter Zack Greinke is not on the same level, and he showed that. He lasted just 3.2 innings, giving up six earned runs on five hits and a walk.

On the flip side, the Rays got a quality start out of their ace, Charlie Morton. He came in and provided five innings of work with just three hits and one earned run while striking out nine batters. About the only downside was that the Rays still had to use their bullpen for three innings.

Can Rays Solve Verlander?

It feels like the Rays took a lot of frustration out on Greinke after not getting much to hit from Verlander and Cole, but Verlander is back up. How will they solve him this time? It really feels like this was a one-game one-off and they’re not likely to find a way through Verlander in Game 4.

Can The Rays Rely On Castillo?

We have a huge pitching mismatch here as the Rays are now turning to Diego Castillo for Game 4. He’s a flamethrower who can hit 100 mph on the gun. Meanwhile, the Astros will have American League Cy Young Award co-favorite on the mound.

Castillo only pitched 68.2 innings this season and only started six games. This is a roll of the dice as he posted a 1.24 WHIP and 3.41 ERA this season. He already pitched in Game 1, entering in relief of Tyler Glasnow. He allowed one hit in 1.2 innings of work.

Castillo has pitched well at home this season, holding opposing batters to a .208 average while posting a 0.98 WHIP. One concern is that he’s given up six home runs in just 40.0 innings of work at home. We’ll see if the Astros bats can get to him. Either way, he likely won’t be asked to go more than six to nine outs, at most, at which point the Rays heavily-worked bullpen will be called upon once again.

What’s The Best Bet?

With such a high price tag here, it’s tough for me to go with Verlander and the Astros. I prefer the over in this spot. Houston will touch-up the Rays pitchers and, while Verlander should muzzle the Rays, I can see them picking off a couple of runs from the likes of Roberto Osuna in the Houston pen.

Pick: Over 7.5 (-110)