Reds (Bauer) vs Braves (Fried) Game 1 Picks and Odds – Sep. 30th

• The Cincinnati Reds visit the Atlanta Braves for Game 1 of their wildcard series on Wednesday, Sept. 30
• The Reds go with NL Cy Young favorite Trevor Bauer, but the Braves are a -136 favorite for the opener
• Read on for analysis, odds and a best bet for this wildcard opener

It will be elite pitching vs elite offense when the Cincinnati Reds and Atlanta Braves meet for the first this year in Game 1 of their National League Wild-Card series on Wednesday, Sept. 30, at 12:08 pm ET.

The Reds, who had the second-lowest ERA in the NL behind the Dodgers, send Cy Young favorite Trevor Bauer (5-4, 1.73 ERA, 0.795 WHIP) to the mound, while the Braves, who scored the second-most runs in all of baseball, turn to Max Fried (7-0, 2.25 ERA, 1.09 WHIP).

Atlanta’s elite offense, Fried’s unblemished record, and home-field advantage combine to make Atlanta a modest favorite in the Reds vs Braves odds for Game 1.

Reds vs Braves Game 1 Odds

Odds as of Sept. 29th. 

Backing Bauer

Despite sneaking into the playoffs on the last weekend of the regular season, the Reds have an edge with their starting pitching. They will begin with their best in Game 1; Bauer led the NL in ERA, WHIP, and opponent batting average. He also came second in strikeouts with 100.

Do the Reds have their first EVER Cy Young winner?

Trevor Bauer stats
(NL Rank)

1.73 ERA (1st)
100 K* (1st)
0.79 WHIP (1st)

*Most K's through 11 starts in Reds history pic.twitter.com/k8v090EGOK

— CBS Sports HQ (@CBSSportsHQ) September 24, 2020

The right-hander has made six career starts and 10 total appearances in the MLB postseason, where he has amassed a 1-4 record and a 3.81 ERA, with 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings.

Here's the challenge Trevor Bauer presents for Braves hitters ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/4Fo1WBltgA

— Bally Sports South (@BallySportsSO) September 27, 2020

Because of the vagaries of the pandemic-shortened season, Bauer and the Reds didn’t meet the Braves at all in 2020. Bauer has made four previous starts against Atlanta, going 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.476 WHIP. However, only one of those took place at Truist Park, the scene of this Wild-Card series, and that did not go well. He gave up seven hits and three earned runs in 4.2 innings in a 5-4 loss last year.

Braves Will Come Out Swinging

With 348 runs – one back of the major league-leading Dodgers – Atlanta’s lineup is as potent as any taking part in this year’s postseason. The Braves led the majors in team OPS (.832) and also ranked second in batting average (.268) and home runs (103).

BEST
OFFENSE
IN
BASEBALL pic.twitter.com/dmsBb8CozR

— Bally Sports: Braves (@BravesOnBally) September 24, 2020

Despite striking out 573 times, Atlanta also feasted on the fastball, a pitch that Bauer used 48% of the time, with his cutter being utilized 20% of the time. The Braves led the majors with a .309 batting average and .554 slugging percentage against fastballs this year, compared to .220 and .399 against non-fastballs.

Freddie Freeman’s preview of this #Braves playoff series: Good hitting against good pitching — something’s got to give. pic.twitter.com/cCIZEZBiMq

— Kelly Price (@thekellyprice) September 29, 2020

Led by Freddie Freeman, Marcell Ozuna, and Ronaldo Acuna, who were all in the top-five in the National League in OPS, the Braves can manufacture runs in any way possible.

Pressure on Fried to Set Tone

With Mike Soroka and Cole Hamels injured, the pressure has fallen on a 26-year-old with no postseason starts to lead the Braves rotation. Fried has made four playoff appearances over the past two seasons, giving up just six hits but five earned runs in 6.1 innings against the Dodgers and Cardinals.

The young lefty stepped to the fore this season with a 7-0 record in 11 starts. He was among the NL Cy Young favorites himself for most of the year.

Here's how the Reds and Braves matchup starting pitching wise in the Wild Card round.

Advantage: @Reds pic.twitter.com/DtgGwZxagw

— Bally Sports Cincinnati (@BallySportsCIN) September 27, 2020

The pressure is squarely on the youngster to get Atlanta off to a winning start in this best-of-three series, with rookies Ian Anderson and Kyle Wright taking the mound in Games 2 and 3.

His track record against the Reds is limited and mediocre; he has a 1-1 record in three appearances (one start) with a 5.14 ERA (four earned runs over seven innings).

But the Max Fried of 2020 is a different animal.

Best bet: Braves -1.5 (+150)