Bills vs Chiefs Odds, Lines, and Spread for AFC Championship
By John Perrotto in NFL Football
Updated: January 25, 2021 at 8:55 am ESTPublished:
- The host Kansas City Chiefs are three-point favorites over the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday night at Arrowhead Stadium
- John Perrotto betting record: 12-8-2 (3.2 units won)
- Odds, lines and the spread for the AFC Championship Game can be found below with analysis
The Kansas City Chiefs will try to get back to the Super Bowl for the second consecutive year when they host the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship Game at 6:40 p.m. ET at Arrowhead Stadium this Sunday (Jan. 24th).
The Chiefs, who rallied to beat the San Francisco 49ers in last year’s Super Bowl, have a 15-2 record after getting past the Cleveland Browns 22-17 at home last Sunday as 7.5-point favorites. Kansas City is favored in this one but has been the losing side against the spread in eight of its last nine games.
A 17-3 win over the visiting Baltimore Ravens last weekend as 2.5-point chalk raised the Bills record to 15-3 and extended their win streak to eight games. Buffalo has also been an ATS winner in nine of its last 10 games.
The winner advances to Super Bowl 55 on Feb. 7 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa to face either the Green Bay Packers or Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Bills vs Chiefs Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | +150 | +3 (+100) | Over 54.5 (-105) |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -178 | +3 (-122) | Under 54.5 (-115) |
Odds taken Jan. 22 at FanDuel.
Mahomes in the Clear
The biggest question surrounding this game was answered Friday when Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes cleared the NFL’s concussion protocol. Thus, he will be in the starting lineup.
Video from Patrick Mahomes at #Chiefs practice today. Clyde Edwards-Helaire also at practice today. pic.twitter.com/M2ijYZwUfX
— Harold R. Kuntz (@HaroldRKuntz3) January 21, 2021
In the victory over the Cleveland Browns, Mahomes was forced from the game in the third quarter after being tackled around the head by linebacker Mack Wilson.
Mahomes is one of the leading candidates for NFL MVP, the oddsmakers’ third choice behind Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers and Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen.
During the regular season, Mahomes completed 66.3% of his passes for 4,740 yards 38 touchdowns with six interceptions. Against the Browns, he was 21 of 30 for 255 yards and one TD.
Mahomes also has big-game experience, including being the Super Bowl MVP last year. He has played almost flawlessly in five career playoff games in Kansas City with 12 touchdown passes, three TD runs and no interceptions.
Allen is a formidable QB matchup.
The third-year pro completed 69.2% of his passes in the regular season, up from 58.8% last year. Allen also set franchise records with 4,544 passing yards and 37 touchdown passes while being intercepted 10 times.
Josh Allen is just playing like a 6'5" Favre now. This is pretty insane. pic.twitter.com/xWNdD4MZlq
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) January 18, 2021
In the Bills’ two playoff games, Allen is 49 of 72 for 530 yards and three TDs with no picks.
KC Could Ground and Pound
The teams met in Week 6 during the regular season and the Chiefs notched a 26-17 on the road as 5.5-point favorites.
The Bills opted to concentrate on stopping Mahomes and got burned by rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The first-round draft pick had a career-high 161 yards on 26 carries.
Welcome to the league, Clyde Edwards-Helaire 😤
(via @Chiefs) pic.twitter.com/q6JUrezEAZ
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) September 11, 2020
After sitting out the last two regular-season games and last week’s playoff opener with a high ankle sprain, Edwards-Helaire is listed as questionable. However, he is expected to play after participating in practice all week.
Edwards-Helaire has had a fine rookie season, rushing for 803 yards and four touchdowns on 181 carries and catching 36 passes for 297 yards and a TD.
Meanwhile, the Bills have all but abandoned the running game after finishing 24th in the NFL in yards rushing during the regular season.
Maybe OL play is the reason why #Bills running game is struggling? Just maybe??? pic.twitter.com/qKqSyuXtf6
— Pierre Kingpin (@Pierre_Kingpin) October 26, 2020
They had just 16 rushes for 32 yards last week and four of those attempts were on kneel downs by Allen.
Injury/Weather Reports
Chiefs rookie linebacker Willie Gay, Jr. (ankle) has been ruled out. He started eight regular-season games.
In addition to Edwards-Helaire, running back Le’Veon Bell (knee), cornerback Bashaud Breeland (concussion), cornerback Rashad Fenton (foot) and wide receiver Sammy Watkins (thigh) are questionable.
Bashaud Breeland: Clemson alumnus 💪
— PFF College (@PFF_College) February 3, 2020
Questionable for the Bills are rookie wide receiver Gabriel Davis (ankle) and defensive tackle Vernon Butler (ankle).
The weather forecast calls for a 60% chance of drizzle, a low temperature of 31 and wind from the northeast at 6-10 mph.
Who’s Going to Tampa?
It’s hard to pick the Chiefs. However, no team has repeated as Super Bowl champions since the New England Patriots during the 2003-04 seasons.
Meanwhile, the Bills have been playing great for more than two months. They look like a team destined to reach the Super Bowl for the first since the 1993 season, especially against a potentially shaky Mahomes.
Pick: Bills +3 (+100)
Sports Writer
John Perrotto has been covering and writing about sports for various outlets for over 40 years. His work has appeared in the likes of USA TODAY, ESPN.com, SI.com, Forbes.com, The Associated Press, Baseball Digest, and more. John is based out of Beaver Falls, PA.
