NFL Week 11 Picks Straight Up – Predicted Upsets and Underdogs Showing Value

• Minnesota is a home underdog against Green Bay, despite rating better in most offensive categories
• The Dallas Cowboys are getting points in Arrowhead; can they topple the Chiefs?
• Last week’s picks went 1-2, winning us 1.5 units, bringing our season total to +12.09 (13-14 record)

The run of big favorites falling continued in Week 10, as Washington Football team shocked the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Carolina Panthers saved our picks with an upset in Arizona.

The only massive underdogs in the Week 11 lines are the NFL’s worst teams, so we won’t be looking for any huge upsets. But we’ve got plenty of games that should have playoff implications in our picks, starting with an NFC North clash.

NFL Week 11 Upset Picks

Odds as of November 19th at DraftKings and FanDuel

Vikings vs Packers

The Green Packers already have the NFC North on lock, but this is still a critical game against their division rivals when the visit the Minnesota Vikings as 2.5-point favorites.

We lamented the Vikings bad luck the last time we sided with Minnesota and that’s still the case. With an average margin of defeat of just 3.6 points – including two OT losses – Kirk Cousins and company deserve better than a sub-500 record at the midway point of the season.

The #Packers should be worried about the #Vikings because _______________________. pic.twitter.com/oo7I40zCcg

— Good Morning Football (@gmfb) November 17, 2021

Green Bay’s offense hasn’t exactly been on fire over the last month. Part of that has to do with the their stars being sidelined for one reason or another, but even at full strength, the Pack haven’t topped 30 points since Week 3. They also have a history of performing below their average against Mike Zimmer’s D, as outlined here by Arif Hasan. (That includes the last few years when the Vikes D sucked.)

Aaron Rodgers doesn't practice, "definitely" playing Sunday. https://t.co/Jy6VbxMthy

— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) November 17, 2021

Aaron Rodgers will go this week but Aaron Jones won’t. And as fun as it is watching AJ Dillon’s monster thighs churn, Jones is an integral part to this Packers passing game. Green Bay also has some injuries in the pass rush department, with Whitney Mercilus likely done for the year and Rashan Gary questionable.

Also, for what it’s worth; the 8-2 Packers have a worse DVOA than the 4-5 Vikings.

Vikings DVOA,
Thru Week 10:

Team Overall = 9th
—
Overall Offense = 12th
Rushing Offense = 29th
Passing Offense = 4th
—
Overall Defense = 8th
Rushing Defense = 28th
Passing Defense = 6th
—
Special Teams = 11th

— Dustin Baker (@DustBaker) November 17, 2021

Look for the Vikings’ luck to turn around here as they make a push down the stretch for an NFC wild card spot.

Cowboys vs Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs are back! One win over a struggling Raiders team has people buying back in on the back-to-back reigning AFC Champs. But we’ll find out if the Chiefs have really rediscovered their swagger when they welcome the Dallas Cowboys to Arrowhead as 2.5-point favorites.

Kansas City has been drafting off past success to inflated lines all season, thus they have a dismal 3-7 ATS record. Meanwhile, the very public Cowboys have been killing Vegas with an 8-1 ATS record. So it’s a little surprising the better team is getting points in this spot.

Through 10 weeks of the NFL season, just four teams rank in the top 10 in both scoring offense and scoring defense

Cowboys (1/10)
Bills (2/1)
Cardinals (4/5)
PATRIOTS (6/2)

— Alex Barth (@RealAlexBarth) November 16, 2021

Dak Prescott is among the favorites for MVP with the way he’s been playing in 2021, while Patrick Mahomes has been dealing with an uncharacteristically high number of turnovers. If Mahomes isn’t careful this weekend, he’ll be on the wrong side of yet another Trayvon Diggs highlight.

TREVON DIGGS GRABS HIS 8TH INT OF THE YEAR 🔥

(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/jioZGRbKYu

— ESPN (@espn) November 14, 2021

The Cowboys’ league-leading offense also got reinforcements last week, as receiver Michael Gallup returned to the fold. Look for him to have a bigger role this week with Amari Cooper now out due to COVID.

Cowboys ruled out WR Amari Cooper for Sunday's game against Kansas City after he was placed on COVID list.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 19, 2021

Historically, buying into the Cowboys just meant heartbreak once the season neared Thanksgiving. But this year’s team really feels different. This is a spot where they can prove that’s the case.

Steelers vs Chargers

With so many teams in the hunt in the AFC, it feels like every week will have several games with playoff implications from here on out, and Sunday Night Football is one of those big matchups. The Los Angeles Chargers are 5.5 point favorites over the Pittsburgh Steelers in SoFi Stadium.

I’m not thrilled at the prospect of potentially backing Mason Rudolph in this spot; fresh off a tie with the NFL’s worst team. In fact, there’s a lot of concerning injuries for Pittsburgh.

Steelers don’t have to include status of Ben Roethlisberger and Minkah Fitzpatrick bc they’re on the Reserve/COVID-19 list.

Tomlin said earlier he expected Fitzpatrick to be out, but there’s still a chance Roethlisberger plays. Steelers have until 4pm tomorrow to activate him. https://t.co/2zzo2QwQgJ

— Brooke Pryor (@bepryor) November 19, 2021

But this is a vote of confidence in Mike Tomlin. These are the spots he thrives in. When they’re an underdog, Pittsburgh is an NFL-best 18-5 against the spread since 2017, including 14-9 straight-up. One of those wins, came in a very similar spot against the Chargers, on a Sunday Night, with Duck Hodges under center. Steelers fans took over the tiny soccer stadium the Bolts called home: what will this weekend look like?

This Rick-Roll attempt by the Chargers Sunday night with "Renegade" backfired as it fired the large contingent #Steelers fans up more. Got to think these things through better. lol Too funny! 🎥@muldowney pic.twitter.com/1Ydm4o1ndd

— Steelers Depot 7⃣ (@Steelersdepot) October 14, 2019

Regardless of who is playing QB, Najee Harris will be the key to the Steelers’ attack against this league-worst Chargers run defense. If the Steelers can control the ball, that will put even more pressure on a LA offense that is facing tons of questions after starting off the season hot.

https://twitter.com/AJDraftScout/status/1460120038329966599

Brandon Staley has won a lot of fans with his aggressive decision making, but Tomlin has won a lot of games, period. We’ll roll with the veteran coach to get it done in a huge spot against a young team.