New Mexico Bowl Odds and Picks – UTEP vs Fresno State

• Fresno State is an 11.5-point favorite over UTEP in the New Mexico Bowl on Saturday, December 18th
•  The Bulldogs are seeking the program’s tenth 10-win season in history, while the Miners have not gone bowling since the 2014 season
• See the odds, spread and pick for the New Mexico Bowl below

The UTEP Miners (7-5, 4-4 C-USA) – coming off just their second winning season since 2005 – take on the Fresno State Bulldogs (9-3, 6-2 MWC) on Saturday in Albuquerque. Kickoff is set for 2:15 pm ET at Dreamstyle Stadium on ESPN.

Dana Dimel’s team is looking to snap a six-game bowl losing streak and win a postseason game for the first time since the 1967 Sun Bowl, while Lee Marks will serve as interim head coach for a squad that beat UCLA and San Diego State this season and is now going through a transition with former head coach Kalen DeBoer off to Washington.

Despite all the changes, the Bulldogs are still big favorites against a Miner crew that finished second in Conference USA in total defense.

UTEP vs Fresno State Odds

Odds as of  December 15th at DraftKings

Mining a Victory

It’s been a breakthrough season of sorts for Dimel in El  Paso. Yes, UTEP lost four of its last five games after getting out to  a 6-1 start and saw the two best teams on its slate – UTSA and Boise State – roll up a combined 1,022 yards of total offense. But this is a program that had won only 14 games since its last appearance in a bowl seven years ago.

UTEP football head coach Dana Dimel on the significance of the New Mexico Bowl. @UTEPFB

“It’s a celebration of the season and an opportunity for us to do something special as a football team that hasn’t been done here in a long time.” @600espnelpaso pic.twitter.com/u7wBqglzHZ

— Adrian Broaddus (@AdrianBroaddus) December 5, 2021

The Miners managed to be great all year at bombing away, averaging close to 16 yards per completion. That’s third among FBS programs this season – but first among non-option offenses (Air Force and Army had a higher rate, but with far less attempts). The Miners average only 250 yards passing per game, but quarterback Gavin Hardison may be able to take advantage of a Bulldog squad that had issues in pass defense this season.

In case you did not know: Nevada QB Carson Strong hit a career-high single-game completion percentage this past week when Nevada played Fresno State.

49-of-61 passing = 80.3%

En Fuego.

— Crissy Froyd (@crissy_froyd) October 26, 2021

Fresno State allowed more than ten yards per pass three times in 2021. Hardison has the ability to make it four.

Redshirt junior Ronald Awatt is UTEP’s leading rusher, accounting for 804 yards and five touchdowns on the ground this season on a 5.5-yard per carry average. Sophomore receiver Jacob Cowing is Hardison’s favorite target, grabbing 70 catches for 1,402 yards and eight trips to pay dirt.

Will Haener Play for Fresno State?

Fresno State’s senior quarterback Jake Haener entered, and then withdrew, from the transfer portal after toying with joining DeBoer in Seattle. Haener is eligible to play Saturday, but whether or not he does remains a mystery.

Jake Haener explains why he entered the transfer portal and then came back. He certainly doesn’t need to apologize, imo, but notable details in here including the bowl date and the quarter system. Good look into what players weight. https://t.co/DYRPyTe30u

— Chris Vannini (@ChrisVannini) December 10, 2021

Haener is a difference-maker if he plays, going 303-of-449 (67.5%) on the season for 3,810 yards, 32 touchdown passes and nine interceptions. He also ran for three more. Marks has been coy about who will operate the offense against UTEP – but if it isn’t Haener, backup freshman quarterbacks Jaylen Henderson and Logan Fife could be in the mix.

As for the other 10 positions on the offensive side, Fresno State is stacked. The Bulldogs have a great offensive line and a strong running game. Senior tailback Ronnie Rivers had 1,152 yards from scrimmage this season (788 rushing, 364 receiving) and seven total touchdowns, while fellow senior Jordan Mims had 798 (545 rushing, 253 receiving) and seven total touchdowns as well. Junior receiver Jalen Cropper is the team’s top pass-catching threat, hauling in 76 grabs for 827 yards and 13 total touchdowns (11 receiving, 2 rushing). This attack that led the conference in total yards.

𝐅𝐄𝐀𝐒𝐓 𝐌𝐎𝐃𝐄 🍽️

That's touchdown #⃣5⃣ of the day. #GoDogs | #PrideOfTheValley | @lilronnie_20 pic.twitter.com/XTTMenmefw

— Fresno State Football (@FresnoStateFB) November 25, 2021

Meantime on the other side of the ball, the Bulldog run defense allowed just 127 yards per game – good for 32nd in the FBS.

New Mexico Bowl Best Bet

This one boils down to which team wants it more. How focused will Fresno State be? There were numerous self-inflicted errors against Hawaii, it flat-out did not show up against Boise State and it struggled way too much with UNLV.

There’s also turnovers. While the Bulldogs give the ball away a lot (22 turnovers), they also generates a ton of takeaways (22 turnovers forced).  UTEP lost the turnover margin in five of its last six games, and it was even competitive in the one outlier.

This feels like too big of a spread, though. Give me the motivated Miners!

• Pick: UTEP +11.5 (-110)