NBA Finals Exact Outcome Odds: Picks, Best Bets, and Analysis
By Chris Amberley in NBA Basketball
Published:
- You can bet on the exact outcome of the 2023 NBA Finals
- A Clippers victory over the Celtics is favored, followed by the Celtics beating the Warriors
- Read below for analysis on which potential NBA Finals outcome offers the most value
Online sportsbooks continue to provide new NBA betting opportunities in the futures market. We’re still almost two months away from the start of training camps, but you can now wager on the exact outcome of the 2023 NBA Finals.
Naturally, last year’s champion Warriors and runner-up Celtics find themselves in the majority of the matchups with the shortest odds, as do the Clippers.
2023 NBA Finals Exact Outcome Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Clippers to beat Celtics | +2500 |
| Celtics to beat Warriors | +2500 |
| Warriors to beat Celtics | +2500 |
| Celtics to beat Clippers | +2800 |
| Warriors to beat Bucks | +3000 |
| Clippers to beat Bucks | +3500 |
| Celtics to beat Suns | +3500 |
| Bucks to beat Warriors | +4000 |
| Bucks to beat Clippers | +4000 |
| Suns to beat Celtics | +4000 |
| Celtics to beat Lakers | +5000 |
| Suns to beat Bucks | +5000 |
| Bucks to beat Suns | +5500 |
Odds as of August 5th at DraftKings Sportsbook. Claim this DraftKings Sportsbook promo code before betting.
Those three teams represent the top of the board in the NBA Championship odds, and it’s not difficult to make a valid case for any of them to be a Finals team.
Boston is actually featured in each of the top-four outcomes on the odds board, but that doesn’t mean we should rush to our favorite sportsbook to bet one of those options.
Celtics Futures Too Short to Consider
Boston got better this offseason there’s no denying it. Malcolm Brogdon’s addition gives them elite guard depth, while Danilo Gallinari can take minutes away from Al Horford keeping the veteran fresh.
Celtics Depth Chart☘️:
PG: Marcus Smart, Malcolm Brogdon, Payton Pritchard
SC: Jaylen Brown, Derrick White
SF: Jayson Tatum, Sam Hauser
PF: Al Horford, Danilo Gallinari, Grant Williams
C: Robert Williams Ill, Luke Kornet
(Photo via: heavyonceltics/IG) pic.twitter.com/urw1mM5Vcq
— Hector (@Hector0_33) July 29, 2022
They were already a championship caliber team before these moves, but the rest of the top of the East is also loaded. Philly upgraded its depth and defense with P.J. Tucker, Danuel House Jr. and De’Anthony Melton, while the top-four of James Harden, Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxey is elite.
Miami is still a factor with a Big-3 of Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowry and Bam Adebayo, and we haven’t even mentioned Giannis Antetokounmpo and the 2021 champion Milwaukee Bucks – more on them later.
In addition to the gauntlet the Celtics will have to overcome, they’ll also have to deal with the fallout of the failed Kevin Durant trade. It may seem small, but that’s a distraction no team wants to have to deal with.
Jaylen Brown’s past 2 seasons
24.1 PTS
3.4 AST
6.1 REB
47.9 FG%
37.6 3PT%
76.1 FT%All-star. Eastern Conference Champion. Was on pace to be Finals MVP.
Never seen a 25 year old with this talent get more disrespected. pic.twitter.com/PZymctKYJr
— Celtics Dynasty (@CelticsDynasty_) July 25, 2022
On paper they may look like one of the best teams, but their NBA odds to be involved in one of these exact outcomes are too short to justify consideration. Especially when we consider Milwaukee’s price, and the fact that the Bucks nearly took out Boston in May without their second-best player.
Milwaukee Offers Bang for Your Buck
Even without Khris Middleton, the Bucks had the Celtics on the ropes in the playoffs. They took a 3-2 series lead back to Milwaukee before faltering in Games 6 and 7. The offense wasn’t strong enough outside of Giannis, but Middleton’s return and the addition of sharpshooter Joe Ingles will definitely fix that.
Who has the better starting 5?
Celtics —
G: Marcus Smart
G: Jaylen Brown
F: Jayson Tatum
F: Al Horford
C: Robert Williams IIIBucks —
G: Jrue Holiday
G: Wesley Matthews
F: Khris Middleton
F: Giannis Antetokounmpo
C: Brook Lopez pic.twitter.com/JfepzM6Gxd— StatMuse (@statmuse) August 2, 2022
Let’s not forget that Antetokounmpo is in his prime, and no team has a better cumulative Net Rating than the Bucks over the past three seasons.
They represent great value to be involved in one of these NBA Finals exact outcomes, the question is who do we pair them with from the West?
Golden State is an obvious candidate, but we have to assume they won’t catch as many breaks as they did last postseason. They avoided Phoenix, the best team in the league, and got to play a Memphis team without Ja Morant for most of the series.
The LA Clippers are in consideration, but count me among the group of people who think it’s unlikely Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and John Wall can stay healthy for a full season.
That brings us to the Suns. They’re set to run it back with a team that won 64 games a season ago and it’s hard to blame them.
The Suns Big 3 in 2022:
Chris Paul —
15/4/11
49 FG%Devin Booker —
27/5/5
46/36/87%Deandre Ayton —
17/10
60 FG%Winningest team of the season. pic.twitter.com/N6BqIGsAEa
— StatMuse (@statmuse) July 27, 2022
They ranked top-five in both offensive and defensive rating and have the pieces to dominate from both inside the paint and outside the arc.
Milwaukee and Phoenix met for the title in 2021, and I love the value associated with targeting both sides of an NBA Finals exact outcome in a rematch.
Picks: Suns to Beat Bucks (+5000), Bucks to Beat Suns (+5500)
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
