2026 MLB MVP Odds Tracker – Alvarez Odds-On Favorite in AL

• Yordan Alvarez is the odds-on AL MVP heading into August
• Pete Crow-Armstrong is the slight NL MVP favorite (-120) over Shohei Ohtani
• The graphs below track the changes in the AL MVP odds & NL MVP odds over the course of the 2026 season

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Welcome to your premier destination for handicapping MLB Most Valuable Player futures. Throughout the grueling 162-game schedule, the futures market for baseball’s most prestigious individual hardware is highly volatile. This tracker provides bettors with the quantitative edge needed to stay ahead of line movement, featuring live MVP odds, line histories, head-to-head contender breakdowns, and historical statistical profiles.

It is critical to remember that the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA) evaluates the American League (AL) and National League (NL) awards independently.

The graphs below are calculated by averaging the odds from online sportsbooks. You can track how the odds change throughout the season and shop for the best current lines in the MVP Favorites tables.

American League / National League

2026 American League MVP Odds

Houston Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez is the runaway chalk to capture the American League MVP award, currently listed at an overwhelming -1000 at BetMGM and a heavily juiced -2000 at Caesars.

Alvarez’s case is anchored by staggering offensive metrics and a historic pursuit of the Triple Crown. He boasts a 1.045 OPS alongside 36 home runs and 88 RBI. Ranking second in the AL with a 5.6 WAR, his massive implied probability accurately reflects his dominance.

Trailing Alvarez is Tampa Bay Rays phenom Junior Caminero, sitting at a plus-money +650 at BetMGM. Caminero has launched 35 home runs and driven in 79 runs, posting a .900 OPS and 4.0 WAR to remain the only viable secondary option on the board.

Further down the sheet, Ben Rice holds +2500 odds at BetMGM, while Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr is priced at +6600. Witt Jr leads all AL contenders with an elite 6.0 WAR, contributing 15 home runs, 47 RBI, and an .821 OPS.

Rounding out the top five is Detroit Tigers standout Dillon Dingler (+8000 at MGM), who has quietly amassed 5.2 WAR, 26 home runs, and 82 RBI.

American League MVP Favorites

AL MVP odds are updated every 15-60 minutes, with odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook, DraftKings, and others.

American League MVP Odds Movement Timeline

• August 17: Alvarez has continued to pull away from the field, with the Astros’ slugger now as short as -2000. There’s still a few players left getting odds, the closest being the Rays’ Junior Caminero at +950.
• July 28: Houston’s Yordan Alvarez is surged to -245 on average with Tampa’s Junior Caminero (+512) deemed the only legitimate challenger.
• June 7: Judge is out indefinitely with an injury, throwing the AL MVP odds into disarray. Yordan Alvarez sits slightly ahead of Bobby Witt Jr at William Hill (Alvarez +120, Witt Jr +150) and MGM (Alvarez +135, Witt Jr +150), while DraftKings and FanDuel have Witt Jr as narrow chalk over the Astros slugger.
• May 21: Aaron Judge officially crosses into odds-on favorite territory across all tracked sportsbooks, shortening to -145 on FanDuel and -140 on William Hill NJ to cement his status as the AL MVP frontrunner. Extreme market variance materializes in the mid-tier. Mike Trout’s pricing splits the market, trading at a relatively short +2200 on DraftKings but ballooning to a +7000 longshot on FanDuel.
• May 11: Aaron Judge reaches odds-on favorite territory at William Hill New Jersey (-115) while holding steady at +100 at DraftKings and MGM, bolstered by the Yankees’ 26-15 start. Bobby Witt Jr. solidifies his position as the consensus third favorite (+550 to +600) following early WAR dominance for the Royals.
• May 4: Mike Trout’s unexpected resurgence forces sportsbooks to slash his odds from a +8000 longshot down to +1500 at BetMGM and +1800 at FanDuel, sparking massive trade speculation. Yankees youngster Ben Rice experiences violent line movement, surging from +15000 to +1000 at BetMGM as he forms a historic power duo alongside favorite Aaron Judge (+177).
• February 24: For the third year in a row, Aaron Judge has opened as favorite to win the AL MVP. The Yankees slugger is currently getting +225 to win his third-straight MVP, followed by Kansas City’s’ Bobby Witt Jr at +550 and last year’s runner-up, Seattle’s Cal Raleigh, at +850.

American League MVP Winners by Position

American League MVP Winners by Team

2026 National League MVP Odds

The National League MVP market has condensed into a thrilling two-horse sprint between Chicago Cubs standout Pete Crow-Armstrong and Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani. Crow-Armstrong is currently the slight favorite, sitting at -120 at MGM. His case is bolstered by staggering all-around value, pacing the National League with an 8.4 WAR. At the plate, he has delivered elite production with a .935 OPS, 31 home runs, and 79 RBI.

Breathing right down his neck is Ohtani, listed at an even-money +100 at MGM. The two-time reigning NL MVP continues to dazzle offensively, boasting a .949 OPS with 30 home runs, 80 RBI, and an impressive 7.0 WAR. Ohtani’s historical pedigree and near-identical counting stats keep the betting market incredibly tight as the season winds down.

Beyond this elite duo, the rest of the field has faded into extreme longshot territory. CJ Abrams is listed with the third-shortest odds at a distant +10000 at MGM, followed by Kyle Schwarber at +15000. Willson Contreras rounds out the top five available options at +25000 via William Hill New Jersey, cementing the reality that this year’s hardware is essentially a coin flip between Crow-Armstrong and Ohtani.

National League MVP Favorites

NL MVP odds are updated every 15-60 minutes, with odds provided by FanDuel, BetMGM, and DraftKings Sportsbook, among others. 

National League MVP Odds Movement Timeline

• August 20: Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls ahead as the slight betting favorite at -120 at MGM, with Ohtani at +100 and the rest of the field at +10000 or longer.
• August 17: This race is now down to two: Shohei Ohtani and Pete Crow-Armstrong. The role of favorite will likely go back and forth until the end of the season, but for now it’s Ohtani in front at -140, with PCA sitting at +115.
• July 28: As has become the norm in races involving Ohtani, the real battle is for second-place. Chicago’s Pete Crow-Armstrong (+700) has separated from the pack, well ahead of Kyle Schwarber (+3500) and Juan Soto (+4000). Ohtani is a -1493 favorite on average heading into August.
• June 7: Shohei Ohtani reaches unprecedented territory as a mid-season favorite, distancing himself from the field with astronomical odds of -952 on William Hill, -800 on MGM, and -699 on DraftKings. Chicago Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong emerges as a fascinating split-market candidate. Despite pacing all NL position players in WAR (3.0), he presents a massive pricing disparity between sportsbooks, listed at +6500 on DraftKings while fetching a staggering +20000 longshot price on MGM. Kyle Schwarber settles in as the consensus distant runner-up to Ohtani, with oddsmakers keeping him within a tight window at +1400 on both DraftKings and William Hill, and +1500 on MGM.
• May 21: Shohei Ohtani establishes himself as a historic betting favorite, commanding massive minus-money odds that reach -474 on FanDuel and bottom out at -625 on Caesars. A steep drop-off solidifies behind the favorite. Kyle Schwarber emerges as the consensus second choice but remains in heavy plus-money territory at +1200 on DraftKings and +1500 on Caesars.
• May 11: Matt Olson settles in as the distant but consensus second-favorite (+800 at MGM, +900 at DraftKings), riding the momentum of the Braves’ NL-best 28-13 record. Ohtani is a prohibitively short -355 betting favorite.
• May 4: Shohei Ohtani’s implied probability balloons to over 80%, peaking at a -450 price tag at Caesars as his pitching metrics remain elite. Carroll separates from the trailing pack as the consensus +1700 second-choice at FanDuel and BetMGM.
• February 24: It should come as no surprise that the Dodger’s dual threat, pitcher/designated hitter Shohei Ohtani, opens as an overwhelming favorite to win once again win the NL MVP. Ohtani opens at -115, well ahead of the Mets’ Juan Soto (+800) and the Braves’ Ronald Acuna Jr (+1200).

National League MVP Winners by Position

National League MVP Winners by Team

MLB MVP Formula

Evaluating futures in the Most Valuable Player market requires stripping away narrative bias and looking strictly at the statistical profile that historically cashes tickets. The modern BBWAA voter relies heavily on a hybrid of elite run production and advanced analytics. Winners almost universally clear massive benchmarks in home runs and RBIs, while pairing that raw counting data with an elite OPS. Just as importantly, bettors must weigh team success; while outliers exist, voters heavily favor superstars who drive their clubs to the postseason. A high-WAR player on a sub-.500 team is historically a bad bet at short odds.

The Stats That Matter Most for MLB MVPs

To find an edge in the MVP futures market, bettors need to handicap the metrics that actually drive the voting consensus:

• Wins Above Replacement (WAR): WAR is the ultimate all-encompassing metric for MVP voters. It quantifies a player’s total value across hitting, fielding, and baserunning. If a player is not projecting to finish top-three in their league in WAR, their implied probability of winning the award plummets.
• On-Base Plus Slugging (OPS): OPS is the gold standard for offensive efficiency. MVP favorites generally clear elite OPS thresholds, proving they can blend on-base consistency with massive slugging power.
• Home Runs: As the premier counting stat, home runs still heavily manipulate the handle and the voters. A typical MVP campaign requires ranking near the top of the league leaderboard.
• Team Success: Making the playoffs heavily influences the voting outcome. Bettors should heavily discount the odds of players on losing rosters, as elite metrics compiled on division-winning teams carry significantly more weight.
• Narrative and Storyline: Because the award relies on human voters, subjective elements occasionally break ties. Overcoming injury, historic milestones, or carrying a team through a late-season pennant race can swing a close race.

Can a Pitcher Win an MLB MVP Award?

While the Cy Young market is built to honor the league’s best arms, a starting pitcher can technically cash an MVP ticket – though it remains an exceptionally rare anomaly. In the modern era, a starting pitcher claiming the MVP requires a perfect storm: an absolutely dominant, historically-significant season on the mound coupled with an incredibly weak crop of position players.

Because pitchers only impact a fraction of their team’s schedule, the barrier to entry is staggering. Justin Verlander (2011 AL) and Clayton Kershaw (2014 NL) required generational statistical profiles to sway the BBWAA. Shohei Ohtani, however, has fundamentally broken this historical model. By accumulating immense WAR simultaneously as both an elite starting pitcher and a premier designated hitter, Ohtani represents a unique market force that traditional MVP handicapping formulas simply cannot compute.

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Archived MLB MVP Odds –

• 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018