Super Bowl Odds Favor Chiefs, Eagles & Bills Ahead of Week 1 Kick-Off

• The Kansas City Chiefs (+600), Philadelphia Eagles (+800) and Buffalo Bills (+850) are the leading contenders in the 2024 Super Bowl odds
• Defending champion Kansas City has never repeated as NFL champion
• Buffalo has never won a Super Bowl title. See all of the Super Bowl odds and our best Super Bowl winner prediction prior to kick-off here

If recent history is taken into account, the reigning NFL champion Kansas City Chiefs own a 40% chance of successfully repeating, according to the current Super Bowl odds. Over the past five Super Bowls, the preseason favorite in the Super Bowl odds has gone on to win the title twice.

However, take a much longer view of NFL history and the odds of the Chiefs retaining the Lombardi Trophy dip significantly. Since 1988, only six times has the preseason chalk in the Super Bowl odds become the champion that season.

Let’s look at the current betting lines on the 2024 Super Bowl.

Super Bowl Odds

The Kansas City Chiefs start as +600 favorites in the Super Bowl odds, while Super Bowl finalists the Philadelphia Eagles are second-favorites at +800. Also being assigned a betting line shorter than +1000 are the Buffalo Bills at +850 and the San Francisco 49ers at +900. The longest shots on the board are the Arizona Cardinals and Houston Texans a +17500.

Odds as of August 31 at Bet365. Access this Bet365 bonus code to bet on which NFL team you think will win for your Super Bowl picks here.

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Who Is Favored to Win the Super Bowl

This is the fourth time in five seasons that the Chiefs will be kicking off the regular season as the chalk to win the Super Bowl. They are 1-for-3 as the Super Bowl pick. Kansas City opened as the +600 betting choice in the 2019 Super Bowl odds and went on to win the big game over the San Francisco 49ers.

However, KC came up short in 2020, losing the Super Bowl to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. And in 2021, the Chiefs fell to the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship Game.

🚨DOUBLE COUNTDOWN DAY🚨#8DaysUntilKickoff Represented by 2 of the best #Chiefs in history!

Future HOFers Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce hooking up for this 8-Yard TD Catch in OT to get KC back to it's (then) 4th straight AFC Championship Game, better known as the Arrowhead… pic.twitter.com/IKMdL9mb4q

— Kingdom Kast (@KingdomKast) August 31, 2023

In franchise history, Kansas City has never won two titles in a row. That being said, it’s difficult to utilize many other metrics to decipher why the Chiefs won’t be champions this season. They’ve won six successive AFC West titles and are favored to do so again in the NFL Divisional odds. Kansas City also tops the NFL Power Rankings analytics compiled by SBD editor-in-chief Matt McEwan as well.

Since Patrick Mahomes became their quarterback, the Chiefs have reached at least the AFC Championship Game in each of his five seasons at the helm.

Who Is Predicted to Win the Super Bowl

If history is not on the side of the Chiefs, it is completely stacked against the Philadelphia Eagles (+800). At -500, the defending NFC champions are the best bet in the conference in the NFL playoff odds. That’s the good news. Here’s the bad news: not since the fifth Super Bowl in 1972, when the Dallas Cowboys beat the Miami Dolphins 24-3, has a beaten NFC team returned to win the big game the following season.

If it’s movers and shakers you seek, then there’s a couple of AFC teams delivering the goods. Making the biggest move of the offseason by acquiring four-time NFL MVP QB Aaron Rodgers, the New York Jets saw their odds to win the big game shorten from +4000 in late January to their current status as the co-sixth betting choice at +1400. They’ve also climbed to 9.5 in the NFL win totals. However, just like the Jets, Rodgers has only one Super Bowl title on his resume.

Likewise, locking up QB Lamar Jackson to a new contract and adding free agents like WR Odell Beckham Jr and DL Jadeveon Clowney saw the Super Bowl odds on the Baltimore Ravens dip from +2800 to +1800. It should be noted that in the search for value, you shouldn’t stray far from the chalk. The Los Angeles Rams won in 2021 after opening at #6 in the Super Bowl odds. Kansas City (2022) and Tampa Bay (2020) were Super Bowl champions after opening as the third betting choice.

"Josh Allen keeps Buffalo's Super Bowl window wide open! … The team to beat in the AFC this year, Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills."

—@AdamSchein pic.twitter.com/XE8fJJNkcO

— CBS Sports Network (@CBSSportsNet) August 30, 2023

Speaking of third, that’s where the smart money should be going this season. Last season, the Buffalo Bills began the campaign as the +600 chalk in the Super Bowl odds. This season, the Bills sit third overall in this betting market at +850.

Something’s been lacking, keeping QB Josh Allen and the Bills from going all the way in recent years. Perhaps it’s been as simple as needing to work harder to succeed during the regular season. With the revamped Jets and the oncoming Miami Dolphins, the AFC East won’t be a cakewalk for Buffalo. And that could prove to be the key to Super Bowl glory for the Bills.

NFL Super Bowl pick: Buffalo Bills (+850)

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