Commanders vs Lions Odds, Picks & Predictions (Divisional Round)

• The Detroit Lions host the Washington Commanders in the NFL playoffs Saturday, January 18th
• The Lions are 9.5-point home favorites in the NFC Divisional Round Matchup
• Check out the Commanders vs Lions odds, picks and predictions, below

With just eight teams remaining in the NFL playoffs, the Divisional Round begins Saturday, and the Commanders square off against the Lions in the nightcap. When Washington visits Detroit with a trip to the NFC championship game on the line, they’ll do so as heavy underdogs according to the latest NFL betting lines. Kickoff for this NFC playoff tilt is scheduled for 8pm ET from Ford Field, in Detroit, Michigan. FOX provides the broadcast coverage in the United States with TSN and CTV showing it in Canada.

Washington Commanders vs Detroit Lions Odds

Detroit is currently favored by 9.5 points, in a contest with a total of 55.5 points. The spread has fluctuated between -8.5 and -9.5 all week, with the NFL public betting percentages showing that 89% of bets are on the Lions on the moneyline, 55% of bets are for the Commanders +9.5 on the point spread and an even 50/50 split on the 55.5 over/under total. 

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Commanders Continuing Cinderella Run

To say the Washington Commanders have far exceeded expectations in Rookie QB Jayden Daniels’ rookie year would be a massive understatement. The Commanders have reeled off six straight victories, won their first postseason contest since 2005, and are searching for their first NFC Championship game appearance since 1991. Their last five wins have all come down to a last-minute play from Week 15 onward.

The aforementioned Daniels has 13 Pass TD in the 4th quarter or OT this season, tied with Joe Burrow for the most in the NFL, including playoffs, and the most by a rookie in NFL history. His six 4th quarter comebacks are the most by a rookie pivot since 1950.

Only three times in NFL history has a team had 0 turnovers & 0 punts in a game with a rookie starting QB.

All three were by Jayden Daniels (Week 2, Week 3 & Wild Card) 👀

(H/T @OptaSTATS) pic.twitter.com/ePiyD8LtBv

— NFL on Prime Video (@NFLonPrime) January 15, 2025

First year quarterbacks are 0-3 against Lions head coach Dan Campbell in the last two seasons, but Daniels has given Commanders hope by doing his best Houdini impression. Washington was fifth in points per game in the regular season (28.5) and seventh in yards per contest (369.6). Defensively they haven’t been as stout, ranking 18th and 13th in those two categories, respectively. However, they’ve held four of their last six opponents to 20 points or fewer.

Detroit Lions Rolling Into Postseason

The Detroit Lions have been a juggernaut who well deserved their first round bye, winning 15 of 17 games this season to match the Chiefs for most in the league. They also had an NFL-best +222 point differential, leading them to top Super Bowl odds contender. They’re searching for back-to-back NFC title game appearances for the first time in franchise history to avenge their soul crushing loss to the 49ers last season.

Running back Jahmyr Gibbs has been otherworldly, racking up 20 touchdowns to set a Lions record, and he’s expected to get his backfield mate David Montgomery (knee) after missing the last three outings.

Two big injury updates for the #Lions during today’s (estimated) practice:
— RB David Montgomery (knee) was a full participant.
— CB Terrion Arnold (foot) was a full participant.

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) January 14, 2025

In the regular season, Detroit was first in points per game (33.2) and second in yards per duel (409.5). They’ve scored at least 30 points in five straight, including a 31-9 beatdown of the Vikings in Week 18 to claim the NFC North and the conference’s top seed. They were seventh in fewest points allowed (20.1). The D has been pushed to the limit as they’ve been racked by injuries, losing several key players like Aidan Hutchinson, Marcus Davenport, Carlton Davis III, and until Week 18, Alex Anzalone, among many others.

Commanders vs Lions Prediction

Jayden Daniels will likely need to pull another rabbit out of the hat to win this contest, as the -9.5 line for the Lions suggests. The problem with relying on late-game heroics against this talented Lions squad is that they haven’t lost a game all season they’ve led in the fourth quarter. They’ve also won six of seven against Washington, though that was a far different iteration of this Commanders team.

Detroit has a fantastic offense. But the Commanders must take advantage of the Lions' D. In the last 5 weeks of the regular season, Detroit ranked 31st in yards allowed per game; 28th in points; last in opposing QB rating and 31st in passing yards. Will make this game interesting

— John Keim (@john_keim) January 16, 2025

On the campaign, Detroit was 6-2 against playoff combatants. Washington was 1-4, before defeating the Buccaneers 23-20 in the Wild Card round. In their last six outings, Detroit hasn’t covered a ten-point spread four times, with a loss, two wins by three points and a victory by six. Washington has remarkably either won or been within eight points of the opposition in 17 of 18 contests on the year. The lone time losing by more than ten all the way back in Week 1 37-20 to Tampa Bay. Washington will likely be too outmatched to win this outright, but I like them to cover the spread.

• Commanders vs Lions Pick: Commanders +9.5 (-110)