New Mexico vs Michigan State Pick, Prediction and Odds

• The Michigan State Spartans are 7.5-point favorites over the New Mexico Lobos in the South Region’s 2 vs 10 contest
• Tom Izzo led teams are 9-1 straight up as favorites in the Round of 32
• See my New Mexico vs Michigan State Pick, Prediction and Odds for the NCAA Tournament, below

Michigan State (28-6) is trying to become the first top-2 seed to reach the Final Four after starting the preseason unranked. They looked the part in the 1st Round, blowing out Bryant. Online sportsbooks expect another smooth sailing outcome tonight versus New Mexico (27-7), as the Spartans are heavy chalk in the college basketball odds .Tip-off is scheduled for 8:40pm ET at the Rocket Arena, in Cleveland, OH, with TNT providing the broadcast coverage.

New Mexico vs Michigan State Predictions

My prediction is that the Spartans wear down the Lobos, just like they did Bryant in the 1st Round. Both these teams are strong defensively, but Michigan State is clearly a tier above. The Spartans rank fifth nationally in defensive rating, and are elite defending the perimeter and the rim.

Michigan State is holding enemy shooters to the worst 3-point field goal percentage in the country. Haters keep waiting for the Spartans defense to regress, but there’s no sign of that happening. Take their opening round matchup. Michigan State limited the Bulldogs to 20.8% from long range and only 62 points. They blocked three shots and outrebounded their opponent by 25.

Offensively, they saw five players reach double figures, and got three triples from projected lottery pick Jase Richardson. MSU has been a completely different team since inserting Richardson into the starting lineup, and he’s rewarded them. Richardson is averaging 17+ points as a starter, and his outside shooting will be key versus the Lobos.

Defending the perimeter is New Mexico’s weakness, ranking 186th in opponent made threes, and 185th in enemy three-point shooting percentage. The Lobos fare much better defensively inside, but the Spartans have answers there as well. Michigan State is excellent at pick and roll creation, which is key against aggressive defenses that double the ball frequently like New Mexico.

New Mexico vs Michigan State Stats

Given how well they’ve played this season, the Lobos were unfortunate to earn only a 10-seed in the March Madness bracket. They were a popular upset pick to down Marquette in the 1st Round, and they delivered. New Mexico shot 47% overall, and 36% from three, led by Donovan Dent’s 21 points. Dent is arguably the best pure scorer on either roster tonight, but it won’t take him long to realize Michigan State is a major step-up in competition.

The Lobos rank 162nd in effective field goal percentage, and are even worse from three. They make just 68% of their free throws, and average 12 turnovers per game. Those are not the kind of numbers that strike fear in Spartan backers. New Mexico wants to attack the basket and crash the glass, but MSU is among the best in both those categories. Michigan State is a top-11 rebounding team at both ends of the floor, negating what is usually a huge advantage for the Lobos.

New Mexico vs Michigan State Pick

• Michigan State -7.5 (-118) at DraftKings

The numbers dictate that Michigan State -7.5 is worthy of being my favorite pick, and the trends support it as well. Tom Izzo led teams are 9-1 straight up as favorites in the Round of 32. His programs have faced a non-power conference opponent 31 times at the NCAA tournament, with a 25-6 record straight up, and a 16-13-2 mark against the spread.

New Mexico vs Michigan State Odds

The best odds we can find on Michigan State -7.5 is -108 at DraftKings. The Spartans are -340 on the moneyline, with New Mexico coming back as +270 underdogs. The total meanwhile, sits at 148.5. Per the college basketball public betting trends, the spread hasn’t budged since opening odds were released, but the over/under is down a point.

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Following the upset of St. John’s on Saturday, Michigan’s path in the Final Four odds is now far easier. Win tonight, and a likely meeting with Iowa State is on deck. After that, a showdown with No. 1 Auburn looms, but MSU has the pieces to send the Tigers home in the Elite Eight.