Alabama vs Duke Picks, Predictions & Best Bets
By Chris Amberley in College Basketball
Published:
- The Duke Blue Devils are 7.5-point favorites over the Alabama Crimson Tide in Saturday’s Elite Eight action
- Alabama is number one in points per game, while Duke is first in offensive rating
- See my Alabama vs Duke picks, predictions and best bets below
There’s a strong chance that the Alabama (28-8) vs Duke (34-3) Elite Eight matchup on Saturday is the best game we’ll see all tournament. We’ve got the two best offenses going head-to-head, with loads of superstar talent on both sides.
Online sportsbooks are extremely bullish on the Blue Devils, making them heavy chalk in the college basketball odds. That goes against my prediction and best bet as you’ll see, but the Duke love is certainly understandable.
Tip-off is scheduled for 8:49pm ET at the Prudential Center, in Newark, NJ, with TBS providing the broadcast coverage.
Alabama vs Duke Picks and Predictions
My prediction is this game winds up finishing much closer than the odds suggest. I’m not ready to lock the Crimson Tide into the Final Four odds just yet, but I believe their offense is going to give Duke fits.
Alabama averages a college hoops-best 91.4 points per game. They’re sixth in effective field goal percentage, seventh in made threes, and number one in total rebounding. Their rebounding prowess gives them loads of second-chance opportunities, and if there’s one thing we’ve learned about the Tide, it is that they don’t miss twice.
That fact was on display in their Sweet 16 record-setting performance vs BYU. Alabama made an NCAA Tournament record 25 threes. There are programs that go five games without making that many triples. Star guard Mark Sears led the way with 10 threes, while Aden Holloway buried six, and Chris Youngblood drained rive. How confident is Alabama right now? Holloway considers an uncontested three as surefire as a layup.
The Tide shot 53% from the field and 49% from three en route to 113 points against the Cougars. They’ve won all three tournament games by 9+ points, averaging over 90 points per outing. Only team has held them below 80 points since January 18th, and they’ve eclipsed 100 points seven times this calendar year.
If there’s a concern, it’s the defense. Alabama ranks bottom-20 in the nation in scoring defense. Most of that however, is due to the pace they play at. They actually grade out 27th in defensive rating, holding enemy shooters to 42.3% from the field.
Alabama vs Duke Stats
Playing in the SEC, also exposes them to high-quality offenses like the one Duke possesses. The Blue Devils are first in offensive efficiency, and ninth in points per game. Duke’s averaged 94 points in three Tournament games, holding down the top spot in the March Madness championship odds.
The Blue Devils are fresh off a 100-point outburst of their own, taking down Arizona by 7 points in the Sweet 16. Future number one pick Cooper Flagg led the charge, racking up a 30 points, 7 assists, 6 rebounds and 3 blocks stat line. Flagg wowed the crowd with high flying dunks, swats into the second row and half-court threes.
The victory puts them a win away from their 18th Final Four, and first since 2022. Duke has been known as an elite team at both ends all season. Their offense lived up to the rep on Thursday, but the defense sprung some leaks. Arizona shot 46% against the Blue Devils, and 47% from three.
Caleb Love, who profiles similar to Sears, put up 35 points, including five triples. Typically in order to beat Duke, you have to shoot the lights out from three. Their interior is stacked with size and rim protectors, but they’ve shown vulnerability along the perimeter. The Wildcats exposed that, and they’re nowhere near the offense that Bama is.
Alabama vs Duke Best Bets
- Alabama +7.5 (-115) at DraftKings
Which makes Alabama +7.5 my best bet. Am I concerned about their defense? Of course. It would surprise no one if they surrendered 90+ points to this ultra-talented Blue Devils team. What I’m not concerned about is the Tide’s ability to punch back.
Alabama has put up ridiculous totals on nearly everyone they’ve faced this year. Against the best conference in college hoops, they averaged 92.1 points per outing, with a 49% field goal percentage. They beat Auburn, and Kentucky twice in league play, while putting up 94 points in a close loss to Florida. They also beat one of the other 1-seeds Houston earlier in the season.
Alabama vs Duke Odds
The best price we can find on Alabama +7.5 is -115 at DraftKings. The Tide is +250 on the moneyline, with Duke coming back as a -310 favorite. The total currently sits at 173.5, a number both teams flew over in their most recent games.
Odds as of March 28 at DraftKings. See the full list of DraftKings legal states.
Per the college basketball public betting trends, Alabama is 6-2 against the spread as an underdog this season, beating the number by an average of 4.8 points per game.
BETMGM SPORTSBOOKUSE CODE SBD1500 & GET $1,500 BACK IN BONUS BETS
BET365 SPORTSBOOKBET $5 & GET $150 IN BONUS BETS WITH CODE DIME365
FANATICS SPORTSBOOKBET & GET UP TO $1,000 IN BONUS BETS!
DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOKBET $5 & GET $200 IN BONUS BETS INSTANTLY!
FANDUEL SPORTSBOOKBET $5 & GET $250 IF YOUR BET WINS
CAESARS SPORTSBOOKUSE CODE SBD2DYW & BET $1 TO DOUBLE THE WINNINGS ON YOUR FIRST 10 BETS!
Must be 21+. GAMBLING PROBLEM? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (CO, IL, KS, KY, MD, MI, NC, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, VT, WV, WY); (800) 327-5050 or gamblinghelplinema.org (MA); (877) 8-HOPENY (NY); 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ); (888) 789-7777 (CT); 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA); 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN); mdgamblinghelp.org (MD); morethanagame.nc.gov (NC); 1800gambler.net (WV)
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
