Best Bets for Kentucky Derby: Picks for Win, Place & Show (2025)

• The 151st running of the Kentucky Derby is Saturday at Churchill Downs with post time set for 7:02 p.m.

• Rain is in the afternoon forecast, which could mean a sloppy track for the run for the roses.

• It’s true what it says in my bio, I have horse racing in my bloodline, and I have my picks for the Derby to Win, Place and Show.

Journalism was the morning line favorite Saturday at Churchill Downs to win the 2025 Kentucky Derby. But that’s not good news. No favorite has won the Derby since 2018. The last four winners were all double-digit favorites, including Mystik Dan at 18-1 last year.

I tell people all the time that there are so many different ways to handicap the Derby, do you want a horse with a winning pedigree? A horse with a renowned – and maybe crooked – trainer? Do you want the best story? Do you want a horse that’s won before? A horse that is emerging? Or do you want the horse with the silliest name?

I have read through the speed reports, studied up on the field, sadly, Grandpa’s system for betting at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans has long been lost. Here are my picks for the win, place and show trifecta.

2025 Kentucky Derby Best Bet Odds

Odds as of Saturday morning.

The 19-horse field is not as top-heavy as it has been in years past. Florida Derby winner Tappan Street, who may be the best 3-year-old in the country, was a scratch with a fracture in his foreleg. They say he may race again. I doubt it.

Rodriguez, a Bob Baffert-trained horse, who won the Wood Memorial and was getting a lot of pre-race love, was scratched with a foot bruise, but may be ready for the Preakness.

Grande was another late scratch with a cracked heel, which his owner was not happy about.

With several front-runners out, focus turns to Journalism, the heavy favorite. Everyone loves his name, but there were worries after his final workout at Churchill Downs was rescheduled. That could be code for something isn’t right.

Best Bet to Win: Citizen Bull

Citizen Bull has been the horse I have been focused on the whole time. He broke through as a 2-year-old, winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile. He won his debut as a three-year-old at the Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita.

He hasn’t gotten a lot of pre-race attention because of a bad finish at the Santa Anita Derby where he finished fourth. His trainer, Bob Baffert, who is back at the Derby after a three-year suspension for all kinds of nonsense, said Citizen Bull wasn’t ready, but is now.

The other bad thing for Citizen Bull is he got the No. 1 post position, which hasn’t brought home a Derby winner since 1986. Horses can get pinned on the rail. But I think Citizen Bull is ready and will get out fast and hold off a bunch of chargers.

Best Bet to Place: Publisher

Pedigree? Check. Publisher is the son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. He finished second in the Arkansas Derby. In fact, Publisher has never won a race. No maiden (a horse without a win) has won the Derby since 1933.

Publisher trainer Steve Asmussen is 0-26 in Derby starts, but calls Publisher the ‘easiest’ horse he’s ever saddled for the Derby. That’s code for ready.

Publisher has something else going for him today. He’s run well in mud. He ran on a sloppy track at Churchill Downs, finished third in a Maiden Special, and was second in some slop at Oaklawn in the Arkansas Derby.

Best Bet to Show: Sovereignty

I went back and forth on this one. My upset special is Render Judgement, but I think I like Sovereignty a bit more. He won the Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs in October. He was second behind Tappan Street in the Florida Derby and has shown the ability to finish strong. But like every other horse in the field, running a mile and a quarter will be different for him. He may finish strong but then fade.

Sovereignty and Citizen Bull are also half-brothers, sired by Into Mischief, who finished in the money in all six races in his career.