Oilers vs Golden Knights Game 1 Prediction, Odds & Start Time (May. 6)
By Chris Amberley in NHL Hockey
Published:
- The Golden Knights are -134 moneyline favorites over the Oilers in Game 1 of their second-round series tonight
- Edmonton had the largest differential between their expected goals for and against in Round 1 (+7.29)
- See my Oilers vs Golden Knights Game 1 prediction below, plus odds and the start time
The Oilers and Golden Knights drop the puck on their second-round series tonight. Edmonton boasts a more star-studded, top heavy roster, while on paper, Vegas is a much deeper team.
Despite their differences, the series odds to advance in the NHL playoff bracket are dead even ahead of Game 1.
Oilers vs Golden Knights Start Time
Puck drop tonight is scheduled for 6:30 pm PT / 9:30 pm ET from T-Mobile Arena, in Las Vegas, NV, with ESPN providing the American coverage, and Sportsnet handling Canadian broadcasting duties.
Vegas was 2-1 on home ice in the opening round, and 29-9-3 in their own barn during the regular season. Edmonton was 1-2 away from home in Round 1, and 23-16-2 as visitors in the regular season.
SPORTSBOOK
Oilers vs Golden Knights Game 1 Prediction
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline (+112 at Caesars)
My prediction is that the Oilers get off to a fast start and steal home ice advantage from the Golden Knights. Edmonton produced the most expected goals per game (4.5) in Round 1, and had the largest differential between expected goals for and against of any team in the first round (+7.29).
The Oilers got significant production from Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl in Round 1, as the duo combined for 21 points. Los Angeles had no answer for the top-two players in the world, but Edmonton also got meaningful production from their second and third lines.
Six Oilers registered at least 5 points in Round 1, while nine players lit the lamp at least twice. Edmonton dominated puck possession over the Kings, and generated 105 high danger chances, almost twice as many as LA. Those stats make them a compelling bet in the Stanley Cup odds.
By the numbers they should have cruised to an easy series win, but lousy goaltending early on sunk them in Games 1 and 2. They appear to have addressed the problem in net however, going to Calvin Pickard full-time. He posted a .893 save percentage en route to winning four straight starts, which was significantly higher than Stuart Skinner’s playoff worst .810 mark.
EDM vs VGK Advanced Stats (Playoffs)
Vegas, meanwhile, is dealing with goaltending issues of their own. Adin Hill significantly underperformed in Round 1, and couldn’t keep Minnesota’s dynamic duo of Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy off the scoresheet. Hill posted an .880 save percentage in the first round, which is .50+ points lower than his career playoff average.
Kaprizov and Boldy combined for 10 goals and 16 points versus Vegas, helping Minnesota actually outscore the Golden Knights in the series. Vegas yielded the third fewest expected goals during the regular season, but ranked middle of the pack among first round playoff teams.
As for the Vegas stars, their production versus the Wild was underwhelming. Jack Eichel and Pavel Dorofeyev combined for only 2 goals, while Tomas Hertl went scoreless in three of the final four games. That kind of output won’t cut it versus Edmonton, who can score seemingly at will, and who no lead is ever safe against.
There were large stretches of the Wild-Golden Knights series where Vegas was completely outplayed. Minnesota doesn’t have nearly as much firepower as the Oilers, and with Hill not living up to his potential in net, I’m betting that McDavid and Co. grab a Game 1 victory.
Oilers vs Golden Knights Best Odds
The bets odds we can get on the Oilers to win Game 1 is +112 at Caesars. The Golden Knights are -134 moneyline favorites, while the total sits at 6.5. Vegas is also laying 1.5 goals on the puck line, getting +180 odds to cover.
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Odds as of May 6th at Caesars. Check out SBD’s Caesars Sportsbook review to see the available sign-up bonuses.
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Based in Alberta? Check out Alberta betting apps to wager on tonight’s game.
Per the NHL public betting trends, the Golden Knights are garnering the bulk of the moneyline bets (67%), but 54% of the money is backing Edmonton. When the percentage of money is higher than the ticket count, it’s usually an indication of sharp action, That means the pros see Game 1 playing out similarly to how I do.
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Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
