Timberwolves vs Warriors Predictions, Picks, Injury News, Player Props & Odds (Game 4)

• Without Steph Curry for the third straight game, the Golden State Warriors host the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 4 on Monday
• The Warriors have lost back-to-back games without their leading scorer and are home underdogs in Game 4 (May 12)
• See the Timberwolves vs Warriors picks and predictions, plus player props, injury news, and the best odds

Still without four-time NBA champion and 11-time All-Star Steph Curry (22.6 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 5.1 APG postseason) due to a hamstring injury, the Golden State Warriors (53-39, 26-19 home, 46-44-3 ATS) face a veritable must-win scenario on Monday night when they host the Minnesota Timberwolves (55-35, 27-18 away, 44-45-1 ATS) in Game 4 of their Western Conference semifinal.

Already trailing 2-1, the Warriors can ill-afford to go down 3-1 before the series shifts back to Minnesota for Game 5, a game Curry is unlikely to suit-up for as well. Latest reports have Golden State targeting a Game six return, but if the Dubs lose on their home court tonight, it’s unlikely the series will last that long.

Jump to: MIN vs GSW Picks | MIN vs GSW Player Props | MIN vs GSW Odds

MIN Timberwolves vs GS Warriors Picks & Prediction for Game 4

• Warriors first-half moneyline (+150) at DraftKings
• Butler over 26.5 points (-110) at BetMGM

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The bad news for the Warriors, of course, is that Steph Curry remains out. The good news is that they were able to hang with Minnesota sans Curry for the entire 48 minutes on Saturday. They led by two at halftime and by four after three quarters before a late letdown allowed the T-Wolves to win by five (102-97). And they did so while finishing -8 in rebounding and seeing Draymond Green limited to 29 minutes due to foul trouble.

Green averaged 32.6 MPG in the Houston series in round one and played 35 minutes in Golden State’s 99-88 road win in Game 1 against Minnesota, a game Curry left shortly into the second quarter.

That Game 1 victory was ample evidence that the Dubs do have the personnel – even without Curry – to go toe-to-toe with Minnesota. Game 3 only reinforced that. If the Warriors had managed to win Game 3, my handicapping of Game 4 would be different. But this is essentially an elimination game for Golden State. (Teams down 3-1 have only managed to come back and win the series roughly 4.5% of the time, and Golden State isn’t likely to have Curry back in two days’ time.) So we should see the same desperation that teams heading home down 0-2 tend to show.

In such cases, home teams usually get a little extra respect from oddsmakers in the first-quarter and first-half lines. The current Timberwolves/Warriors first-half line isn’t reflecting that.

I’m also going to back Jimmy Butler to go over his point total of 26.5. He was by far the most-aggressive Warriors in Game 3 (when he scored a team-high 33) and he’s going to have to be again in Game 4 if Golden State hopes to keep up.

A same-game parlay with the Warriors’ first-half moneyline and Butler over 26.5 points would pay out at +330 odds at DK if both wagers hit.

MIN vs GSW Game 4 Player Props

NBA player props from DK on May 12.

The biggest shift in point totals compared to Game 3 is Jimmy Butler (20.0 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 5.3 APG postseason), whose O/U has skyrocketed from 22.5 to 26.5. Butler led the Dubs with 33 points on 12-of-26 shooting on Saturday, six more field-goal attempts than any other player on the team.

Anthony Edwards (26.6 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 5.3 APG postseason) continues to lead the point totals at 27.5, up one from last game. Edwards poured in a game-high 36 points last time out but was held to just 23 and 20 in Games 1 and 2, respectively.

The Warriors/Timberwolves spread for Game 4 varies between Minnesota -5.0 and -5.5. The best ATS price on the Warriors is currently +5.5 (-112) at DraftKings while the best ATS price on the Timberwolves is -5.0 (-110) at Caesars. The longest moneyline odds on a Golden State victory are +180 at any of BetMGM, bet365, Caesars, DraftKings or FanDuel. The best moneyline price on Minnesota is -215 at FanDuel.

There is a one-point range in the total as of 4:09 pm ET. Over bettors should take O 199.5 (-110) at DraftKings while under bettors should take U 200.5 (-110) at either bet365 or FanDuel.

The NBA public betting splits on Monday show the Warriors getting 59% of moneyline handle and 48% of ATS handle. The public has a much stronger take on the total, where 93% of O/U handle is on the over.