Gauff vs Paolini Picks, Predictions & Betting Lines for Rome Final

• American Coco Gauff faces Italian Jasmine Paolini in the Rome Final on Saturday
• Gauff survived a 3-hour and 32-minute marathon match in the semifinal
• See my Gauff vs Paolini picks and predictions below, along with the betting lines for the Rome Final

History is on the line on Saturday when Coco Gauff squares off with Jasmine Paolini in the WTA Rome final. Paolini is the first Italian woman to reach this stage since 2014, and is looking to become the first woman from Italy to win the nation’s biggest tennis event in 40 years.

Action gets underway at 11:30am ET from the Foro Italico in Rome, Italy, with Tennis Channel providing the broadcast coverage.

Coco Gauff vs Jasmine Paolini Betting Lines

Online sportsbooks however, don’t like Paolini’s chances. They’ve pegged Gauff as a sizeable moneyline favorite, while the American is laying 3.5 games on the spread. That’s a betting line I simply don’t agree with, given how each player has looked so far.

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Gauff vs Paolini Picks

Gauff enters play with an 11-2 record on Clay so far this year. After getting bounced by Paolini in the quarters in Stuttgart, Gauff made it to the finals in Madrid before falling to Aryna Sabalenka. This week, she started by dropping a set to qualifier Victoria Mboko, before rallying back. Three of four subsequent matches have been a grind, including her semifinal showdown with Zheng Qinwen.

Gauff needed three sets to get past the eighth seed in the longest women’s match of 2025. The American survived the 3-hour and 32 minute late night marathon, but it’s fair to ask how much of a toll it took on her.

Paolini’s run meanwhile, has been much smoother. She’s made quick work of four of her five opponents, dropping only a single set along the way. She cruised by Peyton Stearns in the semis, and owns three victories over seeded players this week.

Saturday will mark Paolini’s first final of 2025, and with a win she will climb to number 4 in the world. She’s the first Italian woman to reach multiple WTA 1000 series finals (she won last year in Dubai), and holds the highest winning percentage of any woman from her country in 1000 series tournaments (57%).

Gauff vs Paolini Predictions

• Pick: Jasmine Paolini +3.5 Games (-110)

A major red flag of Gauff’s this week has been her inability to hold serve. Her semifinal match was a prime example as she and Qinwen were broken a combined 19 times. That’s more breaks than there were holds in their 36-game thriller. That’s worrisome with a match versus Paolini on deck, as the Italian is a fantastic returner.

Gauff vs Paolini H2H Results

Paolini boasts a break point conversion rate of 51%, one of the four highest marks on the WTA. She’s winning 41% of her return games on the season, and 46% of her return points. When the two last met in Stuttgart, Paolini broke Gauff five times en route to a convincing victory.

The Italian is 1-2 all-time versus Gauff, with both losses coming on hard court. She’s much more comfortable playing on clay, which is her natural surface. Paolini was a finalist in Roland Garros in 2024, and she’s trending up at just the right moment to make a run at her first grand slam title.

Gauff on the other hand, hasn’t won a clay court event since 2022. Results wise she’s peaking ahead of Roland Garros, but Paolini is a big step up in competition from what she’s struggled against this week. I’m not ready to plant my flag on Paolini breaking the Italian drought in Rome, but with the home crowd behind her I expect her to push Gauff to the absolute limit. Which why I’m predicting Paolini covers the 3.5 game spread.