USA vs Sweden Odds, Prediction & How to Watch World Championship Semi-Final

• Sweden is a -210 moneyline favorite over USA in Saturday’s World Championship semifinal
• The Swedes have the tournament’s best defensive stats, but USA boasts superior power play efficiency
• See the USA vs Sweden prediction, odds and how to watch information, below

The 2025 IIHF World Championship semifinals get underway Saturday, with Sweden hosting USA in Stockholm. This marks a crucial battle as both teams fight for a coveted spot in Sunday’s gold medal game.

The match represents the fourth time in five years that USA has reached this stage, though they’ve struggled to break through and have only reached the podium once during this period, with bronze in 2021. Puck drop is scheduled for 8:20 a.m. ET from the Avicii Arena in Stockholm, with NHL Network providing the broadcast in the U.S.

USA vs Sweden Odds

Sweden is currently a solid -210 moneyline favorite, with the US coming back as a +175 underdog. The total is set at 5.5, with slight juice toward the over. That side looks appealing given both teams’ recent offensive surge, with Sweden scoring at least four goals in seven of their last nine games.

Sweden’s -210 odds translate to an implied probability of 67.7%, meaning the sportsbook gives them roughly a two-thirds chance of winning. A $100 bet on the Swedes would return $147.60 total ($47.60 profit). Meanwhile, USA’s +175 odds suggest a 36.4% implied probability, with a successful $100 wager paying out $275 total ($175 profit).

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USA vs Sweden Prediction

• Over 5.5 Goals (-115) at bet365

Both teams arrive in red-hot form after dominant 5-2 quarterfinal victories. Sweden dismantled the Czech Republic while USA knocked out Finland, with each squad showing no mercy in their path to the semifinals.

The Americans boast an explosive offense led by Frank Nazar, who tops the team with 11 points through eight games. Logan Cooley and Clayton Keller have each contributed 10 points, while Conor Garland has been clutch with four goals and five assists. USA’s power play has been lethal at 33.33%, significantly outpacing Sweden’s 23.08% efficiency.

Sweden counters with Elias Lindholm leading their attack with 11 points and a tournament-high seven goals. Lucas Raymond has been exceptional with 10 points and an impressive +9 rating. The Swedes have shown remarkable discipline with just 38 penalty minutes compared to USA’s 60.

The defensive numbers favor Sweden significantly. Their 93.75% penalty kill dwarfs USA’s 72.73% success rate, while Swedish goaltending has posted a superior 93.06% save percentage versus USA’s 90.64%. Jacob Markstrom is expected to start for Sweden, while Jeremy Swayman gets the nod for the Americans.

Sweden holds historical advantages in this matchup, winning nine of 15 meetings against USA in World Championships this century. Their last encounter was a 2-1 Swedish victory during the Four Nations Tournament just three months ago.

Home ice at the Avicii Arena provides Sweden with another edge, as they’ve drawn significantly larger crowds with 12,530 average attendance compared to USA’s 6,884. The atmosphere should be electric for this semifinal clash.

Both teams have proven they can light the lamp consistently. USA has scored at least five goals in their last five games, while Sweden has netted four or more in seven of their past nine contests. The Americans’ superior power play faces Sweden’s elite penalty kill in what could be the game’s defining matchup.

With offensive firepower on both sides and recent high-scoring trends, this semifinal has all the ingredients for a goal-heavy affair. International hockey at this level typically produces fireworks, and both teams have shown they can find the back of the net when it matters most.

How to Watch Sweden vs USA

The semifinal clash will be broadcast on NHL Network in the United States and TSN1/4 in Canada. American viewers can stream the game via Fubo, which offers a free trial for new subscribers. Canadian fans can catch the action on TSN.ca and the TSN app. The game takes place at the Avicii Arena in Stockholm, Sweden.