2025 Indy 500 Final Predictions & Betting Odds (Sunday, May. 25)

• Pato O’Ward and Alex Palou remain co-favorites at +500 despite Team Penske drama
• Robert Shwartzman becomes first rookie polesitter since 1983, but struggles in traffic during final practice
• Read below for final Indy 500 predictions and odds as Josef Newgarden’s three-peat quest gets tougher after technical infractions

The green flag drops in hours, and the 109th Indianapolis 500 looks wide open after Team Penske’s implosion. The racing giant fired three top executives – including president Tim Cindric – after getting caught with illegal rear attenuator modifications.

That pushes two-time defending champ Josef Newgarden to the back row, opening the door for hungry drivers like Pato O’Ward to finally break through at The Brickyard.

Final Indy 500 Predictions

Winner Pick: Pato O’Ward (+500)
The Mexican’s been knocking on the door with three runner-up finishes, including last year’s heartbreaker when Newgarden passed him on the final lap. But this isn’t just about near-misses. O’Ward’s had the fastest Arrow McLaren car all month. He dominated practice sessions, looked comfortable in traffic on Carb Day, and starts third with clean air to work with.

Here’s what seals it for me: O’Ward’s already logged two second-place finishes this IndyCar season. The speed’s there. The team’s clicking. At 26 years old, he’s hitting his prime racing years. When multiple experts picked him pre-race and he’s still getting +500 odds as the co-favorite? That’s the sweet spot between value and probability.

The only question mark was Arrow McLaren’s early-month struggles finding speed. They’ve answered that emphatically. O’Ward topped the no-tow speed charts multiple times this week. Translation: his car’s fast without help from the draft. That’s championship speed right there.

Value Play: David Malukas Top 5 (+350)
A.J. Foyt Racing cracked the code at Indianapolis two years ago when engineer Michael Cannon found the setup magic. Even though Cannon left, the team kept his notes and it shows. Santino Ferrucci finished third here in 2023 and eighth last year running this exact setup philosophy. Now Malukas, easily the most talented oval driver Foyt’s had in years, gets his shot.

Monday’s practice told the whole story. While others faded on old tires, Malukas pulled away from Team Penske’s Scott McLaughlin. That’s not supposed to happen with a Foyt car against Penske equipment. The kid was grinning ear to ear after practice, calling the car “happy.” That’s driver speak for perfectly balanced.

Starting seventh puts him in the sweet spot. Close enough to the front to avoid early chaos, far enough back to pick his spots. His oval resume? Three top-5s in his first two IndyCar seasons, all on ovals. The +350 price for a top-5 implies just 22% probability. His actual chances? I’m thinking closer to 40%.

Longshot Special: Conor Daly (+3000)
Every Indy 500 needs a feel-good story, and the Indiana native’s ready to deliver. Daly’s averaged an 8.0 finish over his last three 500s. All top-10s despite never starting better than 23rd. Last year he led 22 laps from Row 10. This year? He starts Row 4 in equipment that’s shown shocking pace.

Juncos Hollinger Racing looked completely lost early in May. Then something clicked. Daly ran top-10 speeds consistently in race trim, even cracking the top-5 in multiple sessions. His only complaint Friday was the car “feeling different” but different might be exactly what this team needs to shock the establishment.

Here’s the kicker: hometown drivers feed off the crowd energy at Indianapolis. Daly’s been close before, finishing sixth in 2022. At 30-1 odds, you’re getting massive value on a driver who knows every inch of this track and has the recent results to prove he belongs. When local knowledge meets improving equipment, magic happens. A $10 ticket pays $300 if Daly delivers Indiana its first homegrown winner since 1940.

Final Indy 500 Betting Odds (BetMGM)

Race Winner

BetMGM’s final Indy 500 odds show O’Ward and Palou as co-favorites at +500 (16.7% implied probability). Newgarden drifted from +600 to +700 after his Carb Day struggles in traffic. Takuma Sato surged from +1300 to +800 despite mechanical issues in final practice – the books respect the two-time winner starting second.

Top 5 Finish

The top-5 market at BetMGM gets juicier with O’Ward and Palou both at -140 (58.3% implied). That’s solid value considering their consistency. Newgarden at even money reflects confidence he’ll slice through traffic despite starting 32nd.

Top 3 Finish

For podium finishes, O’Ward and Palou sit at +140 (41.7% implied probability). Even from the back, Newgarden gets +180 respect – BetMGM knows he’s lethal in traffic when the car’s right.

BETMGM SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Get Up To $1,500 Paid Back in Bonus Bets

21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (US); 1-800-327-5050 (MA); 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ); 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA); 1-800-981-0023 (PR), 877-718-5543 or visit morethanagame.nc.gov (NC). See BetMGM.com for T&C. US promotional offers not available in MS, NY, NV, ON, or PR.

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: SBD1500

CODE: SBD1500

SIGNUP BONUS

GET $1,500
BACK

BET NOW

All odds as of May. 25, 2025 at BetMGM Sportsbook. Grab a BetMGM bonus code to wager on the Indy 500 winner.

Key Indy 500 Betting Storylines for Race Day

Newgarden’s Historic Quest
Nobody’s won three straight Indy 500s. Nobody’s won from the back row since the 1970s. Newgarden needs both miracles today. He looked fast leading packs Monday but struggled passing late on Carb Day. The +700 odds tempt, but history says pass.

Rookie on Pole
Shwartzman shocked everyone winning pole for debut team Prema Racing. Reality hit during practice – the Russian struggled badly in traffic, making major setup changes on Carb Day. Still complained about not catching cars after adjustments. Classic rookie learning curve incoming.

Weather Perfect for Racing
Mid-60s temperatures create ideal conditions – among the coolest 500s in years. Cars can run more downforce for closer racing. Cool weather helped produce last year’s thriller. Expect another barn burner.

Indy 500 Best Bets Summary

To Win: Pato O’Ward (+500)
Top 5: David Malukas (+350)
Top 3: Scott Dixon (+225)
Longshot: Conor Daly (+3000)
Prop: Chevrolet Winning Manufacturer (-135)

The chess match begins at 12:45 p.m. ET. With Penske’s empire crumbling and hungry contenders circling, Sunday’s 500 promises chaos. O’Ward’s waited long enough – today he drinks the milk.