Bears vs Patriots Touchdown Picks & Player Props to Bet on TNF (Oct 22)

• Week 7 kicks off with TNF as the Chicago Bears visit the New England Patriots
• Bears QB Caleb Williams has thrown for at least 250 yards in five straight primetime games
• See my Week 7 Bears vs Patriots TD picks and player props below

The Chicago Bears host the New England Patriots at Soldier Field on October 22 at 8:15pm ET, broadcasting live on Amazon Prime Video. As betting markets take shape, this matchup offers plenty of intriguing NFL props angles, headlined by starting quarterbacks Caleb Williams and Drake Maye.

Williams looks to capitalize through the air, while the Patriots rely on Maye to keep the chains moving. Beyond the quarterbacks, the backfield battle featuring Chicago’s D’Andre Swift and New England’s Rhamondre Stevenson provides ample opportunity for prop bettors. This article breaks down the top player prop lines across the rushing, receiving, and touchdown markets to help pinpoint the best value on the board.

Bears vs Patriots Player Props

The starting quarterbacks each face unique statistical expectations for this contest. The following table displays the Over lines and corresponding odds for their respective passing markets.

Odds as of October 22. Get a Caesars promo code to wager on all NFL Week 7 player props and games.

Caleb Williams has seen his NFL passing yards props line open at 236.5 before moving up to 243.5 (-114). Drake Maye experienced a larger jump, as his passing yards total rose from an opening mark of 230.5 to 247.5 (-115). Both quarterbacks are favored to eclipse 1.5 passing touchdowns.ave passing touchdown lines set at 1.5, carrying hefty juice on the under for Darnold (-175) and Nix (-250).

• Caleb Williams 250+ Passing Yards (+108 / 48¢ at Kalshi)

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Williams Pass Yards Prediction

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Williams 250+ Passing Yards

48%

Predict

Williams enters this matchup with a highly favorable track record under the lights. Relying on an individual pattern he has established in these spots, Williams has exceeded 249.5 passing yards in 5 straight games in primetime (290.0 passing yards/game average). Furthermore, Williams showed zero signs of rust in his Week 6 return against Atlanta, completing 22 passes for 305 yards and a touchdown while leading Chicago to 31 points.

In the three games Williams has started and finished this season, he has cleared 265 passing yards twice (269 yards against Carolina and 305 at Atlanta), averaging 8.1 yards per pass attempt. Facing a New England defense that allowed 290 passing yards to Josh Allen and surrendered 29 points in Week 4, Williams will have ample opportunity to exploit soft spots in the intermediate zones at Soldier Field.

Getting plus-money (+108 / 48¢ ) on a 250-yard floor for a quarterback operating with this level of play-action efficiency provides exceptional closing-line value.

Rushing and Receiving Props

The yardage and volume markets for playmakers on both teams have seen significant adjustments since opening.

D’Andre Swift saw his NFL rushing yards props line move down from an opening mark of 65.5 to 60.5 (-115), while his attempts sit at 14.5 (-111). For New England, A.J. Brown watched his yardage prop jump from an opening line of 53.5 to 67.5 (-115). DeMario Douglas experienced similar movement, shifting from 26.5 to 37.5 (-120). TreVeyon Henderson’s rushing attempts prop dropped to 6.5 (+111) after opening at 7.5.

• Cole Kmet 2+ Receptions (+186 / 35¢ at Kalshi)

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Kmet Receptions Prediction

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Kmet 2+ Receptions

35%

Predict

Finding plus-money value is a priority, and Cole Kmet’s NFL receptions props line delivers at +170 odds.

The numbers speak for themselves: Cole Kmet has exceeded 1.5 receptions in 10 of his last 14 games (1.6 receptions/game average). With a 71.4% hit rate supporting this wager, the payout is well worth the investment against the New England defense. Kmet has hauled in multiple receptions in three of his five active appearances in 2026, including two catches on three targets for Caleb Williams last Sunday in Atlanta.

When defenses drop two-high safeties to contain DJ Moore and Rome Odunze downfield, Williams consistently looks to Kmet as his primary checkdown and third-down safety valve over the middle of the field. New England has allowed an average of 4.8 receptions per game to opposing tight ends, making a simple two-catch requirement at nearly 2-to-1 odds one of the sharpest low-volume mispricings on the entire Thursday slate.

Touchdown Props

Scorer odds offer a variety of returns for bettors predicting who will find the end zone on game day. The table below incorporates odds from Kalshi where they provide superior payout value.

Swift enters as the favorite to find the end zone at 59¢ on Kalshi anytime. Rhamondre Stevenson follows for the Patriots at 47¢ anytime. The odds for several Chicago pass-catchers to score anytime arere. For Denver, JK Dobbins paces the backfield at +174 anytime odds and +750 to score first, while Courtland Sutton offers +240 value to light the lamp.

• Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime TD (+113 / 47¢ at Kalshi)

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Anytime TD Prediction

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Stevenson 1+ TD

47%

Predict

For touchdown bettors, Rhamondre Stevenson offers immense value at 47¢ on Kalshi. Stevenson has exceeded 10.5 rushing attempts in 3 of his last 4 games (11.8 rushing attempts/game average). Stevenson has thoroughly dominated New England’s high-leverage red zone touches, scoring touchdowns in two of his last three contests (Weeks 4 and 5 against Buffalo and Las Vegas).

Across his last three outings, Stevenson has logged 13, 13, and 14 carries, consolidating over 65% of the Patriots’ backfield rush share and catching 15 passes out of the backfield this season. Backing Stevenson to find the paint capitalizes on his reliable carry share near the goal line against a Chicago defense allowing 302.3 total net yards per game and conceding 19.8 points per contest.

With New England heavily committed to establishing physical inside-zone runs to protect young passer Drake Maye in a hostile Soldier Field environment, Stevenson at +113 is primed to cash.