IND Pacers vs OKC Thunder Predictions, Picks & Best Available Odds for Game 1

• The OKC Thunder are big favorites over the Indiana Pacers in Game 1 of the 2025 NBA Finals on Thursday
• The Thunder have only lost once at home in the postseason, but the Pacers are 6-2 away from home
• Below, see my Pacers vs Thunder picks and predictions, plus the best odds for Game 1

The 2025 NBA Finals is finally set to begin on Thursday, June 5th, with the West #1 Oklahoma City Thunder (80-18, 43-7 home, 59-35-4 ATS) hosting the East #4 Indiana Pacers (62-36, 26-22 away, 47-49-2 ATS) in Game 1 of the best-of-seven series. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:35 pm CT/8:35 pm ET at the Paycom Center, where the Thunder are 8-1 straight-up this postseason.

The Pacers won the Eastern Conference in large part due to their play in front of hostile crowds, but sportsbooks don’t consider Rick Carlisle’s team much of a threat to take Game 1 of the NBA Finals. The table below shows the best available odds for both sides of the point spread, moneyline, and game total.

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Pacers vs Thunder Odds

At this point, after five whole off days, the public has had its say and the lines are almost identical across various sportsbooks. The spread is OKC -9.5 at most books, but has grown as high as OKC -10.0 at Caesars and DraftKings, making those books the best options for betting the Pacers against the spread. FanDuel has the best odds on OKC to cover, listing the Thunder -9.5 at -114.

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There is a little variety left on the moneyline in Thursday’s NBA odds. Bettors can get the Pacers as long as +400 at Caesars compared to, for example, +340 at ESPN Bet. Bet365 the best moneyline price on the Thunder at -450. OKC is as short as -550 at other sites.

The game total shows a half-point range, from 230.0 to 230.5, which is down half a point from yesterday. Under bettors should use DraftKings, where under 230.5 is priced at -108. Over bettors should use either bet365, Caesars, or FanDuel, where over 230.0 is listed at -110.

If you thought Indiana’s Game 1 odds looked bleak, their NBA Championship odds tell an even more pessimistic tale. Ahead of Game 1, Indiana is a +505 to win its first title in franchise history. The Thunder are -706 favorites, on average, to win their first championship since moving from Seattle. (The Supersonics captured their lone NBA title in 1979.)

Taking out the juice, the current NBA championship odds give the Thunder an 84.12% implied win probability, and the Pacers just 15.88%.

Of course, this isn’t the first time the Pacers have been big underdogs in a series this postseason. After beating the Bucks in five games as -190 chalk in round one, Indiana beat the Cavaliers in five games as +360 underdogs in round two. They needed six games to get past the Knicks in the East final as +120 dogs.

OKC was a massive favorite in each of the first three rounds. The Thunder swept the Grizzlies as -1800 chalk. Then they squeaked past Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets in seven games as -700 favorites. In the West final, they made quick work of the Timberwolves, needing just five games to capture the conference title as -265 favorites.

Pacers vs Thunder Picks for Game 1

The Thunder have been excellent defensively in the first quarter of all three Game 1s to date. They allowed just 20 points to Memphis, 26 to Denver, and 23 to Minnesota, and all three of those quarters stayed under 56.5 points by a comfortable margin, averaging just 49.3 points per quarter.

The Pacers soared well over 56.5 in each of their Game 1 first quarters, but I don’t expect Indiana to be dictating the tempo, and this is the first time they’ll be facing an elite defense in the postseason. The best defense they’ve seen so far in the playoffs is Cleveland, which finished eighth in D-Rating (111.8) in the regular season. The Bucks were 12th and the Knicks were 13th.

The Thunder, of course, were first in D-Rating, and it wasn’t particularly close. With a D-Rating of 106.6 in the regular season, OKC was 2.5 points ahead of second-ranked Orlando, which is bigger than the difference between Orlando and seventh-ranked Golden State (111.0).

Add in the fact that both teams have been off for at least five days (OKC has been off for eight), and I have a hard time seeing the offenses clicking right away. Practice as much and as hard as you want; when you have a week-long layoff, it’s going to impact the first minutes back on the court.

Yet, after all that hyping-up of the OKC defense, I’m also taking Indiana to cover the 9.5-point spread. That is a massive number against a team as deep as the Pacers. One of the main reasons Indiana has been able to find so much success on the road in the postseason is its ability to lean on so many different players.

Pascal Siakam is averaging a team-high 21.1 PPG in the playoffs, but he’s one of just six Pacers in double-figures. They have arguably the best point guard in the league in Tyrese Haliburton (18.8 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 9.8 APG) and he’s supremely adept at finding the hot hand on his team, be it Siakam, Myles Turner (15.2 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 1.4 APG), Aaron Nesmith (14.1 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 1.2 APG), Andrew Nembhard (12.8 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 5.1 APG), Bennedict Mathurin (10.4 PPG, 2.5 RPG), or himself.

Five of those players (excepting Nesmith) have led the Pacers in scoring in at least one playoff game, and Nesmith dropped 30 in Indiana’s wild Game 1 OT victory against the Knicks.