Cubs vs Astros Picks, Predictions, Odds & Betting Splits for Saturday

• Two division leaders clash as the Houston Astros host the Chicago Cubs in the second game of their interleague series.
• The pitching matchup features Houston’s Lance McCullers Jr., who looks to find his form, against Chicago’s Colin Rea.
• The Astros ride a five-game winning streak and have been dominant at home, while the betting market shows sharp money leaning toward the visiting Cubs.

The Houston Astros, behind the arm of Lance McCullers Jr. (1-2, 4.91 ERA), aim to continue their recent dominance at home as they host the Chicago Cubs and Colin Rea (4-3, 4.42 ERA). Houston stormed to a 7-4 victory in the series opener, fueled by a pair of three-run homers that showcased their offensive resurgence.

The Astros are one of the hottest teams in baseball, with five straight wins and eight of their last ten. Yet the betting lines have tightened significantly, indicating sharp money is backing the Cubs to bounce back.

First pitch at Daikin Park is scheduled for Saturday, June 28, at 7:15 PM ET.

Houston Astros vs Chicago Cubs Picks & Prediction

Picks:

• Chicago Cubs +1.5 (-200)
• Under 8.0 Runs (-105)
• Prediction: Houston Astros 4 – Chicago Cubs 3

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This game presents a classic battle: hot home team versus resilient road underdog drawing sharp action.

The Astros’ recent form is undeniable. They’re 31-13 at home, winners of eight of their last ten. But value has shifted. McCullers is a wildcard. That 4.91 ERA and conflicting injury status raise red flags. His stuff can be electric, but he’s facing a potent Cubs offense.

Here’s what jumps out: The Cubs are 15-5 in their last 20 road games following a defeat. They’ve also taken three of four from Houston recently.

Given the sharp money movement, McCullers’ volatility, and Chicago’s proven ability to bounce back, taking the visitors with the run line cushion is the play. The Astros’ bullpen gives them a late-game edge, but the Cubs should keep this tight.

With the total dropping and both teams capable of manufacturing runs, the Under 8 holds value, especially with the market fading the public’s overwhelming Over support.

Houston Astros vs Chicago Cubs Odds

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Odds as of June 28, 2025 from MGM. Check out our top MLB betting apps for Cubs vs Astros.

The moneyline presents a near pick’em scenario, which speaks to the quality of both clubs despite Houston’s recent hot streak. The Astros are slight home favorites, but the MLB odds have moved in Chicago’s favor since opening.

Moneyline (vig-free): Houston Astros ~51.7%, Chicago Cubs ~48.3%

The run line offers significant plus-money value on the Cubs to win by two or more runs. The total dropped from 8.5 to 8.0, suggesting bookmakers anticipate a more pitcher-friendly contest tonight despite Friday’s slugfest.

Odds Movement & Analysis

The betting market has seen significant movement since opening, primarily favoring Chicago. Houston opened as -125 favorites but that line has been bet down to -118. The Cubs shifted from +105 underdogs to near-even -102.

This 7-13 cent movement toward the visitors? That’s professional money talking.

The most dramatic shift occurred on the run line. The Astros opened -1.5 (+160) but the market now lists the Cubs at -1.5 (+165). Sharp bettors clearly believe if Chicago wins, they’ll do so by multiple runs.

The total’s half-run drop comes despite over 80% of public bets backing the Over. Classic reverse line movement signaling sharp action on the Under. Could be the pitching matchup, could be Daikin Park’s pitcher-friendly nature at night, or maybe both offenses are due for regression after Friday’s fireworks.

Public Betting Splits

The MLB public betting splits reveal a stark disagreement between casual bettors and sharps:

• Moneyline: Bets nearly split at 50.4% on Houston. But 52.8% of the money backs Chicago. Larger, sharper wagers on the road dog.
• Run Line: Public favors the Astros with 58.2% of bets.
• Total: An overwhelming 80.4% of bets on the Over, yet the line moved down. Sharp money clearly on the Under.

This divergence strongly suggests contrarian plays align with professional money flow.

Injury Reports for June 28

Both teams navigate key injuries that could impact this matchup.

Houston Astros

Chicago Cubs

Starting Pitcher Matchup

No active Cubs hitters have a significant history against McCullers, and likewise for the Astros against Rea. This matchup comes down to style.

McCullers relies heavily on his sinker-slider combo to generate ground balls. The Cubs lineup is aggressive with power but can chase out of the zone. If McCullers commands his breaking stuff and keeps the ball down, he can neutralize Chicago’s threats like Pete Crow-Armstrong and Seiya Suzuki.

Rea features a sinker-cutter combination but has been homer-prone this season. He faces an Astros lineup firing on all cylinders. Yainer Diaz and Cam Smith provided the thunder in Friday’s opener. If Rea’s command wavers, Houston has the discipline and power to make him pay.

Friday’s Opener Recap

Houston drew first blood with a decisive 7-4 victory. After falling behind early, the Astros erupted with back-to-back three-run homers. Yainer Diaz blasted one in the third to turn the tide. Cam Smith added another against his former team in the fourth to break it open.

Brandon Walter delivered for Houston with six strong innings, one earned run, five strikeouts. Cubs starter Cade Horton got hit hard, surrendering seven earned in just four frames. Chicago showed life late with Nico Hoerner’s solo shot and Matt Shaw’s two RBIs, but Josh Hader closed the door.

Tonight’s rematch promises to be tighter. The sharp money certainly thinks so.