NASCAR Grant Park 165 Odds, Predictions & Top Picks for Chicago Street Race (July 6)

• NASCAR’s Grant Park 1650 takes place in downtown Chicago on Sunday afternoon.
• Shane van Gisbergen won the pole, but Michael McDowell and Tyler Reddick were not too far behind.
• Below, see my NASCAR Grant Park 165 odds, predictions, and top picks.

The Chicago Street Race is a 2.2-mile road course with the appearance of an Indy Car race. Now, Chicago has been a bit of a mixed bag. Both races have been won by a Chevrolet car.

The question becomes can Chevrolet make it 3-for-3? The race in theory should last 2 1/2 to around 3 hours, and the stage setup is 20-25-30. Shane van Gixbergen won the pole but remember he did last year too and did not win the race.

The table below lays out the Grant Park 165 odds (winner, top three, and top five) for the favorites and several racers who might contend. Further down in the article, I have additional top picks to examine for Chicago.

NASCAR Grant Park 165 Betting Odds

At +135 odds, the implied probability for Shane van Gisbergen to win the race is 42.55%. Tyler Reddick rumbled in at +750 (11.76%), with Michael McDowell (+850) not too far off.

Kyle Larson lengthened out to +1500 for this race, but is now +350 in the NASCAR Cup Series odds. Christopher Bell (+500) sees shorter odds and has surged to second.

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Odds as of July 6 (post-qualifying) at FanDuel Sportsbook. See SBD’s guides for the FanDuel promo code. 

NASCAR Chicago Race Details

NASCAR Grant Park 165 Predictions

The weather could be an issue on Sunday The forecast looks unsettled with a couple thunderstorms possible early in the afternoon. Later in the afternoon, there may be more rain showers. Race conditions could be wet and even potentially delayed especially if there is lightning at or near the Chicago street course.

Qualifying saw Chevy occupy the first three spots and six of the first 11. That includes the 2024 winner in Alex Bowman (qualified 11th). After Shane van Gisbergen, Michael McDowell, and Carson Hocevar, there is Tyler Reddick and Chase Briscoe right behind the trio. Kyle Busch looked solid going around the course and will start Sunday from the sixth position.

Again, this was one quirky race, but in the end, van Gisbergen wound up dominating the Xfinity version of the race. Over 50 laps, he dominated large stretches of the race. He held off the field after a restart with two laps left. From there, it was another victory for the road course specialist.

Now, Denny Hamlin is far from the only one starting from the back, all four Hendrick cars will be coming from the rear on Sunday afternoon. It will be intriguing to see who can surge up the field. It is hard to stop a driver like van Gisbergen on a course like this. His Supercars background plays a large role here.

Kyle Larson can be fast but can he stay fast? That is a big question. After that, Chevy overall has a great chance to make this 3-for-3. Keep in mind, that Ty Gibbs, Kyle Busch, and Michael McDowell have been the only ones to finish inside the Top 10 twice. If not van Gisbergen, is it the week for one of those three?

• NASCAR Grant Park 165 Prediction to Win: Michael McDowell (+850 at FanDuel)

A Few More Chicago Top Picks

Finally, it is never a bad idea to dig a little deeper for some wagers. Do not forget that the In-Season Tournament starts this week. We have a quick table for that too.

NASCAR In-Season Challenge Odds

Thankfully, fuel management does not play a role here, and the drivers go to Sonoma next week. Yes, the second and third races during the In-Season event happen to be road courses. What are the odds? That is why one sees quite a few proficient road drivers topping the odds here.

Last week, we were pretty prophetic with that Chase Elliott win. What will happen on Sunday? Stay tuned and find out but a rain delay is at the least very possible. That will change the dynamic of the event as it did two years when Shane van Gisbergen burst onto the scene in the first place.

Take Ty Gibbs as one of the surprise choices for the in-season and let’s race in Chicago!