UFC Nashville: Lewis vs Teixeira Prediction, Odds & Tale of the Tape

• Derrick Lewis takes on undefeated Tallison Teixeira at UFC Nashville on Saturday, July 12th
• Sharp money has moved Teixeira from -280 to -325 favorite status
• Scroll down for our Lewis vs. Teixeira prediction, betting odds, and tale of the tape breakdown

All-time knockout king Derrick Lewis faces undefeated Brazilian prospect Tallison Teixeira in a generational UFC Nashville heavyweight matchup at Bridgestone Arena on Saturday.

This five-round fight tops a loaded card that also features Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson vs. Gabriel Bonfim, streaming live on ESPN+. The main card kicks off at 8 p.m. ET.

Lewis vs Teixeira Prediction

The smart money’s already spoken. Teixeira opened at -280 but was quickly bet down to -325, a clear sign that pro bettors are backing the 25-year-old newcomer. The Under 1.5 rounds prop at -188? Another clue that we’re likely in for a short, violent affair.

Lewis weighed his lightest ever at 261 pounds, which could increase cardio but decrease power and durability. At 40 and vulnerable to early finishes, he faces a 25-year-old destroyer who has never taken more than four minutes to finish a bout.

Teixeira will pressure from the opening bell, using his four-inch reach advantage to pepper Lewis with jabs and straight punches. When Lewis tries to close distance for his power shots, expect Teixeira to frame off with elbows and knees in the clinch. Those body shots will gas the veteran quickly.

Best value on the board? Teixeira by KO/TKO in Round 1 at -110. It’s basically even money for what sportsbooks already believe is the most likely outcome. Lewis has been stopped early in recent fights, and Teixeira’s never needed a Round 2. Look for the Brazilian to land clean early, get top position, and finish with strikes.

Lewis vs Teixeira Pick:

• Teixeira by KO/TKO in Round 1 (-110 at DraftKings)

Lewis vs Teixeira Odds

Sharp bettors have moved this line from an opening of -280, showing clear confidence in the undefeated Brazilian prospect.

DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

Sign Up Today & Receive Up to
$1,050 in Bonuses!

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

SIGN UP
& GET $1,050

BONUS BETS + DEPOSIT BONUS

GET PROMO

Odds as of July 11, 2025, at DraftKings Sportsbook. Lock in a DraftKings Sportsbook promo code to bet on Lewis vs Teixeira.

Lewis vs Teixeira Tale of the Tape

Fight Analysis

This matchup screams mismatch on paper. You’ve got a 40-year-old gatekeeper who’s been knocked out in three of his last five against a 25-year-old phenom who’s never seen the second round.

Derrick Lewis has the most knockouts in UFC history with 15, and he is still one of the most dangerous punchers in heavyweight history. “The Black Beast” won by TKO in the third round against Rodrigo Nascimento last May, but he’s been getting more and more open to early finishes. His chin, which used to be as hard as granite, has cracked because of the pressure from younger, faster heavyweights.

Lewis weighed 261 pounds, which is the lightest he’s ever been for a UFC fight. He seemed more focused and leaner than usual, but some fans are worried that this new version makes him weaker. Lewis is more of a measuring stick for prospects than a real contender at this point in his career.

Tallison Teixeira (8-0) represents everything the UFC wants in its next generation of heavyweights. Standing 6’7″ with an 83-inch reach, the Brazilian brings technical Muay Thai with devastating elbows and knees. He’s finished all eight professional fights in the first round, including a 35-second demolition of Justin Tafa in his UFC debut

Yes, Teixeira takes risks by coming forward, but his youth, reach, and technical striking make him a nightmare matchup for aging veterans. He stayed calm under pressure against Austen Lane, taking hits before knocking him out cleanly in less than two minutes. His cardio hasn’t been tested yet, but the oddsmakers don’t think this fight will answer that question.

That 4-inch height and reach gap will be huge. Expect Teixeira to keep Lewis at bay with jabs and kicks, then punish the body in the clinch. And when Lewis charges in looking for his signature bomb, Teixeira will be ready with elbows or knees down the middle.

Lewis has to hit first and hit hard to win. His counter right hand is still a surefire way to end a fight, but he’ll have to time Teixeira’s aggression just right. The problem? Lewis has been losing quickly lately, and Father Time remains undefeated.

UFC Nashville Fight Details + How to Watch

The event will be available through ESPN+, with fans able to tune in with a subscription.