US Open Picks Today (Aug. 25) – Including Norrie vs Korda Prediction

• World #2 Carlos Alcaraz meets big-serving Reilly Opelka in the first round of the US Open on Monday
• Twenty-year-old Nishesh Basavareddy makes his US Open debut against #9 Karen Kachanov
• See my favorite US Open picks and predictions for Monday, August 25

The second day of play at the 2025 US Open sees 11 more Americans in action, some with much tougher draws than others. The mantle of toughest opponent goes to 6’11 Reilly Opelka, who drew 2022 US Open-champ and current world #2 Carlos Alcaraz in the nightcap on Arthur Ashe. In the morning, Sebastian Korda will start the proceedings against Cam Norrie.

In the table below, I have set out my two favorite US Open picks for Monday, August 25th, along with the sportsbook currently offering the best price on the relevant betting market. Under the table, find my rationale for each pick.

US Open Picks & Predictions – Day 2 (Aug. 25)

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US Open Pick #1: Korda Moneyline vs Norrie

My first pick on Monday is Sebastian Korda to advance past an aging and out-of-form Cam Norrie. Last week, Korda returned from injury in style, stringing together wins over #87 Vit Kopriva, #78 Kamil Majchrzak, and #45 Miomir Kecmanovic in Cincinnati before withdrawing ahead of the semifinals due to an illness.

By all accounts, the illness hasn’t lingered and he should be fit for Monday’s match against #36 Cam Norrie, who’s now on the wrong side of 30 and has lost three straight hardcourt matches entering the US Open. Those three losses weren’t exactly against hardcourt titans, either: #32 Brandon Nakashima (7-6³, 6-3), #93 Aleksander Vukic (6-3, 6-7², 6-3), and #47 Roberto Bautista-Agut (6-4, 6-3).

Norrie was struggling on hardcourts early in 2025, as well, and has an ugly 9-12 win/loss record on the surface in 2025.

Korda has won three of four career meetings with Norrie, including a straight-sets rout (6-3, 6-0, 6-4) the only time the pair met at a grand slam (2022 Aussie Open).

I expect Korda to make relatively quick work of the Briton. I am tempted to take Korda -2.5 at +235, but I’ll stick with the shorter odds on the Korda moneyline.

US Open Pick #2: Kecmanovic Moneyline vs Fonseca

The bracket hasn’t done Brazilian wunderkind Joao Fonseca any favors. The 19-year-old draws dangerous Miomir Kecmanovic in the first round, and I see Fonseca being one-and-done in his first appearance at Flushing Meadows.

Fonseca is just 2-2 on hardcourts since Wimbledon, and one of those wins came via retirement (vs Davidovich Fokina) when Fonseca was down a set. His only win since Wimbledon was a 4-6, 6-2, 6-4 victory over world #76 Yunchaokete Bu in the round of 64 in Cincinnati. He has an impressive 19-5 record on hardcourts in 2025 but ten of those wins were in Challenger events.

Kecmanovic is only 4-6 lifetime at the US Open and 3-4 on the post-Wimbledon hardcourt swing. But the former top-30 Serbian has a boatload more experience and has been playing slightly better.

Fonseca should go onto great things in the years to come, but he shouldn’t be this short of a favorite against a very worthy and experienced opponent.