Alcaraz vs Lehecka Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds

• World #2 Carlos Alcaraz is a massive favorite over #21 Jiri Lehecka on Tuesday
• The pair have split their last two meetings, with both matches going a full three sets
• See the Alcaraz vs Lehecka odds, picks, and predictions for the US Open quarterfinals

Riding a ten-match win streak, world #2 Carlos Alcaraz meets 23-year-old Czechian Jiri Lehecka in the quarterfinals of the 2025 US Open on Tuesday afternoon. The pair are tentatively scheduled to start at 12:40 pm ET on Arthur Ashe, though the exact start time will depend on the length of the preceding matches.

Whatever time they begin, Alcaraz will start the match as a massive favorite.

Alcaraz vs Lehecka Odds

The best odds bettors can currently find on the Alcaraz moneyline are -1000 at bet365. He’s as short as -1668 at BetMGM. FanDuel has the longest price on a Lehecka victory at +1200. The best price for Alcaraz to cover the spread of 7.5 games is -105 at DraftKings, while Lehecka spread bettors can get -110 at bet365.

The default game total varies between 31.5 and 32.5 depending on the book. There’s a slight opportunity to middle pre-match, with bet365 offering over 31.5 at -120 and BetMGM offering under 32.5 at -115.

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Lehecka has received a favorable draw in his first four matches. The highest-ranked player he’s faced is #59 Tomas Martin Etcheverry (3-6, 6-0, 6-2, 6-4), who’s really more of a clay-courter. He’s also ousted #105 Borna Coric (3-6, 6-4, 7-6⁵, 6-1), #107 Raphael Collignon (6-4, 6-4, 6-4), and #77 Adrian Mannarino (7-6⁴, 6-4, 2-6, 6-2).

Alcaraz has faced a slightly higher calibre of opponent and done so without dropping a set. He’s made short work of #67 Reilly Opelka (6-4, 7-5, 6-4), #65 Matteo Bellucci (6-1, 6-0, 6-3), #34 Lucas Darderi (6-2, 6-4, 6-0), and #82 Arthur Rinderknech (7-6³, 6-3, 6-4), spending just 7:43 on court, compared to 11:19 for Lehecka.

Alcaraz has only faced eight break points in his first four matches, combined, saving seven (87.5%). Lehecka has faced 23 breakpoints on his serve and saved just 10, which is an ugly 43.5% win rate on breakpoints against.

Lehecka vs Alcaraz H2H History

The 21-year-old Lehecka and 22-year-old Alcaraz have already met three times in their careers, and Lehecka has held his own. Alcaraz dominated the first matchup on grass in London back in 2023 (6-2, 6-3).

Lehecka answered back with a three-set win on hardcourts in Doha early in 2025 before Alcaraz won a three-setter, again on grass in London, this June.

Alcaraz vs Lehecka Prediction & Picks

• Over 31.5 games (-120 at bet365)
• Both players win a set (+150 at Caesars)

The Lehecka serve has been good during the US Open, but certainly not as good as it can be. The Czechian ranks 20th on tour in Serve Rating (279.3), which is only nine spots behind Alcaraz (284.5). If he cleaned up his first-serve percentage on breakpoints, he might also have cruised through the first four rounds as seamlessly as Alcaraz.

One thing Lehecka shouldn’t be short on today is confidence. He already owns a win over Alcaraz and took him to the limit when they met on grass a couple months ago. That’s the main reason I’m targeting the over and both players to win a set. Alcaraz’s domination through the first three rounds came at the expense of incomplete players; Opelka has no return game, while Darderi and Bellucci lack power. Lehecka outstrips all of Alcaraz’s opponents to date in almost every category, save for Opelka’s serve.

Alcaraz dropped a couple sets on his way to the title in Cincinnati, and only won two of his six matches at Wimbledon in straight sets. Hardcourts are Lehecka’s best surface and I expect him to repeat his past success against Alcaraz on the biggest stage.