South Florida vs Miami (FL) Prediction, Odds, Spread & H2H History

• The #18 South Florida Bulls are 17.5-point road underdogs against the #5 Miami Hurricanes in Week 3 College Football action
• USF rides high after shocking Florida 18-16, becoming the only team with two ranked wins this season
• Read below for South Florida vs Miami early prediction, betting odds, spread and head-to-head history

The Bulls have shaken up college football with two straight wins over ranked teams. Now, they face their biggest challenge yet against a Miami team averaging 36 points per game and still without a turnover committed this season.

The Week 3 college football odds reflect Miami’s dominance at home, where they’ve won 16 of their last 17 games. Still, USF has already upset one Florida powerhouse as a big underdog and would love nothing more than to do it again.

Kickoff is set for 4:30 pm ET Saturday from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, with The CW Network providing coverage.

South Florida vs Miami FL Odds

This line opened at Miami -16.5 and has steadily climbed to 17.5, with some sharp books like Pinnacle even dealing 18.5. The total has surged from 53.5 to 56.5 as both offenses have impressed early.

Interestingly, 93% of the betting handle is on South Florida, according to our NCAAF public betting splits. This is a classic reverse line move, with sharp money backing the Hurricanes and squares on the underdog.

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Odds as of September 10 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to check out the best sportsbook promos before betting on Week 3 College Football.

Bulls Seeking Another Upset Win

South Florida (2-0) destroyed #25 Boise State 34-7 in Week 1, then stunned #13 Florida 18-16 on the road. They’re the only team in America with two ranked wins already.

Quarterback Byrum Brown has been the catalyst, completing 65% of his passes without an interception while leading the team in rushing. He’s supported by 33 seniors who give USF exceptional veteran leadership.

The defense has been opportunistic with a +4 turnover margin. They held Florida to just field goals on multiple red zone trips and haven’t allowed more than 16 points in any game.

But there are concerns. USF generated zero pressures from their defensive line against Florida, according to Pro Football Focus. Their run blocking grades among the worst nationally per PFF. And they have just one defensive lineman over 300 pounds in their two-deep rotation.

Hurricanes Among CFB’s Early Elite Teams

Miami (2-0) is ranked fifth in the latest AP Poll and firmly among the CFB National Title contenders. The Canes opened their 2025 season with a statement 27-24 win over last season’s runner-up Notre Dame, before following up with a 45-3 win over Bethune-Cookman.

Carson Beck has been surgical for Miami, completing 76% of his passes for 472 yards and four touchdowns without a pick. According to PFF, he ranks 6th nationally in clean pocket passing grade since becoming the starter.

The Hurricanes boast the 3rd highest-graded defensive line in college football through two weeks, per PFF. They’re 2nd in run defense grade and 7th in pass rush grade nationally.

Edge rusher Ruben Bain Jr. is a potential top-10 NFL draft pick with 90+ grades in both run defense and pass rush. Miami posted a 63.9% pass rush win rate against Notre Dame’s elite offensive line.

Miami’s offensive line features players weighing 330, 348, and 345 pounds. That size advantage could be decisive against USF’s undersized defensive front.

USF vs Miami FL Head-to-Head

Miami has dominated this series 5-1, with USF’s lone victory coming in 2010 as 13-point underdogs. The Hurricanes covered easily last year, winning 50-15 at USF.

South Florida vs Miami Prediction

• Early Lean: South Florida +20 or better
• Total Lean: Pass (too much uncertainty)

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This reverse line movement is telling. Sharp bettors keep moving Miami’s line up, even though 93% of public money is on the Bulls. If the public money mattered more, South Florida would be closer to two-touchdown underdogs.

USF has legitimate issues to overcome. Their defensive line is undersized and couldn’t generate pressure against Florida. Miami’s massive offensive line could dominate the trenches.

But Byrum Brown is special enough to keep games close. He’s the type of dual-threat quarterback who can extend drives and hit explosive plays when defenses get aggressive.

The Bulls also have that dangerous combination of veteran leadership and house money. They’re playing with lots of confidence after two big upsets.

Miami should win, but I’m not comfortable giving up almost three touchdowns against a ranked team on a hot streak. If the line gets to around three touchdowns, I’ll look at USF. For now, I’m staying away and suggest you be careful with this reverse line movement.